The first group’s argument can be summarized as follows: Velocity is vitally important, and pitchers who want to have MLB success are wise to push to throw as hard as they can.

And the second group’s argument: The never-ending chase for velocity is likely to blame for the ever-increasing rate of arm injuries, something that wasn’t as much of an issue when pitchers didn’t throw as hard.

Both sides have some valid points, and the argument isn’t going away any time soon. The charts we’ve compiled below may help to explain why the chase for velocity isn’t likely to disappear, even if it may increase injury risks.

What Are The Average Fastball Velocities Of Top MLB Prospects?

Earlier this year, Baseball America ranked the average fastball speeds of every pitching prospect in the Top 100.

SEE THE LIST

Specifically, we’re using the excellent Baseball Savant tool to look at how MLB hitters have fared against four-seam fastballs divided into different velocity buckets so far in 2024. What we’re not looking at is how well each pitch is located, what the count was or how well the pitch moved. We’re only separating these pitches out by velocity.

As you may note below, the harder an MLB pitcher throws, the more effective his four-seam fastball is. It’s a relatively linear relationship. Overall, MLB hitters are hitting .244/.311/.401 with a 25.1% whiff rate this year, and the average velocity of a four-seam fastball is 94.2 mph. Hitters like to see fastballs, so against those four-seamers, MLB hitters are slashing better: .246/.334/.424 with a 21.7% whiff rate.

If a pitcher throws at or below the league-average four-seam fastball velocity, on average, they are giving up above-average production on those four-seamers. If they throw 95+ mph (which is above MLB average velocity), they are giving up below-average production on four-seam fastballs. And if they throw 100+ mph, hitters dread seeing their fastball.

Major League Four-Seam Data

We can do the same for Triple-A pitchers’ four-seam fastballs in 2024.

Once again, we see a similar relationship: If you throw harder, you have more success. The only difference is we didn’t include 101-102 mph fastballs for Triple-A, as there have been less than a hundred thrown all season (pitchers who throw 102 mph don’t hang out in Triple-A very long). As one might expect, there was a much more statistically-robust total of 435 fastballs thrown at 101-102 mph for the major leagues.

Triple-A Four-Seam Data

Again, this is only four-seam fastballs. But what if we looked at how hard pitchers threw their slider? We’re again not focused on how the pitches move, so we’re looking at all types of sliders: traditional, sweepers, gyro and all else.

In case that leads you another question, here’s the same breakdown for four-seam fastballs from MLB in 2009. MLB hitters showed similar degradations in production and increases in whiff rates as velocity climbed, and similar production against each fastball velocity bucket. But in 2009, only 6% of four-seam fastballs were 97+ mph. Now 17% of them are 97+ mph, so there are a lot more at-bats taking place in the higher ranges of these buckets.

Major League Slider Data

The results aren’t as linear as the fastball velocity buckets, but other than 85-86 mph pitches having better results than 87-88 mph, there still is a definite improvement in results as velocity increases and swing-and-miss rates climb.

With changeups, however, there is no clear relationship between velocity and success. Changeups rely on movement, deception and in many cases, a velocity separation from a pitcher’s fastball. So, a pitcher who throws a hard changeup that lacks deception may not be benefiting from that velocity.

As you can see below, by not controlling for anything other than velocity, there does not seem to be any significant relationship between changeup velocity and the pitch’s effectiveness.

Major League Changeup Data

So what does it all mean?

Throwing harder, especially when it comes to fastballs, leads to more success for MLB pitchers. If you throw harder, hitters have less time to react, and that makes a hitters’ job tougher. It sounds simple, because it is.

But it’s a simple truth that many baseball fans seem to struggle to accept.

The post Why Do MLB Pitchers Focus So Much On Velocity? How Fastball Data Explains Baseball’s Growing Search For Speed appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

The top 16 finishers from the 2023 World Baseball Classic have automatic berths in the 2026 WBC. The other four spots will be determined through qualifier tournaments.

First Round Pool Play

(Two Two From Each Pool Advance)

Pool A (San Juan, Puerto Rico) March 6-11, 2026

Puerto Rico
Cuba
Canada
Panama
Qualifier

Pool B (Houston, Texas) March 6-11, 2026

United States
Mexico
Italy
Great Britain
Qualifier

Pool C (Tokyo, Japan) March 5-10, 2026

Japan
Australia
Korea
Czech Republic
Qualifier

Pool D (Miami, Fla.) March 6-11, 2026

Venezuela
Dominican Republic
Netherlands
Israel
Qualifier

Quarterfinal Round

Pool A Vs. Pool B (Houston, Texas) March 14, 2026

Pool A Runner-Up vs. Pool B Winner
Pool A Winner vs. Pool B Runner-Up

Pool C vs. Pool D (Miami, Fla.) March 14, 2026

Pool C Runner-Up vs. Pool D Winner
Pool C Winner vs. Pool D Runner-Up

Semifinals (Miami, Fla.)

March 15, 2026: Pairings to be determined
March 16, 2026: Pairings to be determined

Championship (Miami, Fla.)

March 17, 2026: Winners of semifinal games

The post 2026 World Baseball Classic Schedule, Pools & Venues appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Tyler Fitzgerald, SS/OF, Giants

The 26-year-old has burst onto the scene in the second half of 2024, swatting 12 homers and swiping seven bases in 28 games since the All-Star break. During this stretch, Fitzgerald ranks top 10 in batting average, top 20 in OBP and top six in slugging percentage. Only Jake Burger has hit more home runs than Fitzgerald over that time, while only American League MVP favorites Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. have accrued more fWAR.

From July 9th (pre-All-Star break) through July 27th, Fitzgerald hit a memorable eight homers in just 10 games played, becoming the first Giants player to do so since Barry Bonds in 2004:

Normally, this would be the end of the story for a player who peaked at No. 28 in the Giants’ 2020 organization prospect rankings.

However, since that homer run tear, Fitzgerald is still slashing .304/.341/.557 with five homers and seven steals in 19 games. This “regression” suggests he wasn’t just a two-week wonder. Which begs the question: How is Fitzgerald doing this?

A quick look at Fitzgerald’s Baseball Savant page shows that he has pulled most of his home runs.

Among hitters with at least 50 fly balls this season, Fitzgerald ranks t-11th in pull rate at 40%. While not quite at Isaac Paredes’ 45% threshold this year, Fitzgerald is surrounded by pull-happy names such as Adam Duvall, Rhys Hoskins and Anthony Santander.

Pulling fly balls is one way to outperform your expected stats. Among players with at least 100 balls in play, nobody has a larger difference between their xwOBA and their actual wOBA than Fitzgerald. However, the other two players inside the top 80 of the differential leaderboard who have at least a .400 wOBA are good company: Royce Lewis and Rafael Devers.

This analysis has mostly described how Fitzgerlad got to this point. It remains to be seen how pitchers begin adjusting and if the rookie can adjust back. The Giants are counting on him to do so. After playing sparingly to begin the summer, Fitzgerald has started 28 straight games entering this week. He’s done so while operating as the team’s everyday shortstop, a position San Francisco desperately needs in a post-Brandon Crawford era. Fitzgerald’s plus defense at the position has boosted his WAR total, potentially forcing his way into the National League Rookie of the Year race.

James Wood, OF, Nationals

There’s going to be a lot of James Wood hype entering the 2025 Major League Baseball season.

Since he debuted too late to join the NL ROY discussion, and the Nationals are no longer competing for a postseason spot, the conversation around Wood is relatively muted compared to what it will be by spring training next year.

Through 42 big league games entering Monday, the 21-year-old is slashing .284/.373/.458 (135 wRC+) with five homers and six steals. He’s been even better lately, posting a 196 wRC+ during August, which ranks eighth among all MLB hitters. After posting a 33% strikeout rate in July, he’s down to 26% this month to go along with an improved walk rate.

The key has been a massive reduction in chasing outside the zone:

While a .459 BABIP during the month of August isn’t sustainable, it’s encouraging to see such quick adjustments from a hitter his age.

Something Wood needs to continue working on is lifting the ball. His 56% ground ball rate is the seventh-highest in the majors among players with at least 170 plate appearances.

Somewhat troublingly, it took until Sunday for him to finally pull a fly ball. Still, given his age and prospect pedigree, Wood’s to-date success might also be considered even more impressive, given that he has yet to optimize his batted balls.

Additional comfort lies in the fact that, among all major league hitters with 100 or more balls in play, Wood’s average exit velocity ranks fifth:

Hitting the ball hard on the ground can help lead to an inflated BABIP, so unless Wood starts pulling in the air at an extreme rate, there’s a chance this stretch could be the high-water mark of his rookie campaign.

Even with only modest improvement in his pulled fly ball rate, Wood can finish strong by continuing his swing decision improvement. If he checks those boxes, he’ll be an easy 22-year-old breakout pick entering spring training.

Zach Neto, SS, Angels

While the Angels trudge through another summer without Mike Trout, there have at least been a few bright spots between Neto and Logan O’Hoppe.

Neto debuted in April of last year after spending just 44 games in the minors (and none at Triple-A). The results were about what one would expect for a young hitter acclimating to the majors: .225/.308/.377 with nine homers and five steals across 84 games.

In 2024, Neto started slowly through his first 101 PAs, posting a 76 wRC+ without signaling much improvement. Since then, he has 16 homers, 18 stolen bases and a greatly-reduced K% to go along with a 133 wRC+. Rotisserie fantasy managers have appreciated the power-speed contributions, though the Angels must also be quite happy with his development.

Interestingly, Neto’s swing decisions and batted-ball profile haven’t undergone major overhauls since 2023. Instead, his slash line improvements stem from better results on contact: 357 xwOBAcon in 2023 vs. .393 in 2024

Perhaps those numbers are the result of improving against a specific pitch. Last season, Neto had a negative run value against sliders. Thus far in 2024, only two other qualified hitters have been as productive against sliders, per Baseball Savant:

Neto’s still working on his all-around game, with a 19th percentile Outs Above Average and seven caught stealing attempts. If he’s able to get better in those areas to begin 2025, we could be witnessing the seeds of an All-Star campaign.`

The post Three Promising Young MLB Hitters To Watch In The Final Month Of The Season appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

• Evaluating Speed (4:00)
• 60 Yard Dash and Home to First (7:00)
• Top Speed and it’s benefits (16:00)
• X Axis of force velocity curve (27:00)
• Top speed atrophies as players age (35:00)
• The Nolan Arenado example (44:00)
• What accelerates atrophy? (49:00)
• Hit Tool Players vs. Size, Athleticism and Tools (52:00)
• Colt Emerson vs. Walker Martin (63:00)
• The Brent Rooker Example (67:00)

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The post 90th Percentile: How Athleticism And Speed Are Evaluated In Top MLB Prospects appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Drew • 61 WAR

1997: J.D. Drew, OF, No. 2
2004: Stephen Drew, SS, No. 15

Both Drews starred at Florida State and had lengthy MLB careers, making them the most productive first-round brothers. While J.D. infamously did not sign with the Phillies in 1997, he was the fifth overall pick the following year. His .384 OBP is one of the highest marks of the past 25 years, and he contributed steady power and defense as a corner outfielder. Stephen was a standout defender who had a few good years with the bat. Their brother Tim also was a first-rounder, drafted 28th overall in 1997 as a high school righthander.

Upton • 49 WAR

2002: B.J. Upton, SS, No. 2
2005: Justin Upton, SS, No. 1

Both Uptons signed out of high school in Chesapeake, Va. B.J. was a graceful center fielder who stole 300 bases with good power. Four-time all-star Justin was a slugging corner outfielder who hit 325 home runs. They were teammates for three seasons with the Padres and Braves.

Benes • 33 WAR

1988: Andy Benes, RHP, No. 1
1993: Alan Benes, RHP, No. 16

Former Evansville standout Andy was the preeminent 1-1 college ace before David Price, Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole came along. He won 155 games in 14 seasons, made an all-star team and finished top five for a Cy Young Award twice. Younger brother Alan had an injury-marred, eight-year MLB career. The Benes brothers were teammates for three seasons with the Cardinals.

Young • 15 WAR

1991: Dmitri Young, 3B, No. 4
2003: Delmon Young, OF, No. 1

Dmitri made a couple of all-star teams in 13 MLB seasons. Delmon shined brighter as a prospect—No. 1 overall in 2006—but was done as a regular by his mid 20s and out of MLB before turning 30. Note that Dmitri and Delmon’s nephew, Quentin, is also one of the top prospects in the 2025 draft.

Weeks • 13 WAR

2003: Rickie Weeks, 2B, No. 2
2008: Jemile Weeks, 2B, No. 12

Rickie set the Division I standard with a .473 career average at Southern. With the Brewers, he contributed power, speed and walks to three playoff teams. Hard hands held him back defensively at second base. Jemile was a stronger defender but didn’t hit enough to hold a regular job.

Other Prominent First-Round Brother tandems

2019: Josh Jung, 3B, No. 8
2022: Jace Jung, 2B, No. 12

1998: Jeff Weaver, RHP, No. 14
2004: Jered Weaver, RHP, No. 12

2012: Josh Naylor, 1B, No. 12
2015: Bo Naylor, C, No. 29

The post Could The Holliday Brothers Soon Join These First-Round Duos? appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Be sure to listen to previous organizational breakdowns here:

• AL East
• AL Central
• AL West
• NL East
• NL Central

(3:10) Arizona Diamondbacks
(17:30) Colorado Rockies
(31:00) Los Angeles Dodgers
(49:30) San Diego Padres
(60:00) San Francisco Giants

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The post Assessing The State Of Every NL West Organization appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

• What To Look For In The New Baseball America Magazine (1:30)
• What To Expect From Junior Caminero (2:30)
• Can Zebby Matthews Fit In Minnesota? (4:45)
• How Charlie Condon’s Development Path Was Different From Most (8:45)
• Was Condon Surprised To Not Go 1-1? (12:00)
• Where Is Condon Most Comfortable Defensively? (14:00)
• Condon Explains His Swing And What He Looks To Do (15:30)
• How Jackson Holliday Is Rolling, What’s Next On The Top 100? (23:00)

We stream the Hot Sheet Show every Tuesday at 3 p.m. ET on YouTube. You can also listen to the show wherever you get your podcasts!

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The post Junior Caminero, Zebby Matthews Are Major Leaguers; Charlie Condon Joins The Show | Hot Sheet Show Ep. 20 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Be sure to listen to previous organizational breakdowns here:

• AL East
• AL Central
• AL West
• NL East

(3:30) Chicago Cubs
(16:30) Cincinnati Reds
(29:30) Milwaukee Brewers
(41:00) Pittsburgh Pirates
(55:20) St. Louis Cardinals

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Colleyville Heritage High, located in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, played 42 games in 2019, winning 39 of them, as Witt led the Panthers to the Texas class 5A state title.

The Royals wanted to watch over the player they believed was the most talented in a top-heavy draft class that also included Adley Rutschman and 2024 first-time all-stars Gunnar Henderson, Riley Greene and CJ Abrams.

Kansas City saw all five of Witt’s tools, and the sixth for those who believe heavily in makeup.

Then-Royals GM Dayton Moore did, and the only thing that could stop him from selecting Witt with the No. 2 overall pick would be if Baltimore selected him at 1-1.

The Orioles chose Rutschman, the Oregon State star catcher. The Royals phoned Witt immediately to tell him he was their pick.

“We knew we wanted Bobby Witt Jr. a year before the draft,” said Moore, now the Rangers’ senior adviser of baseball operations. “We loved Adley Rutschman as well, and we didn’t know what the Orioles were going to do.

“But Bobby Witt Jr., I can honestly tell you, was No. 1 on our list, and that’s who we were really hoping to be able to select.”

Five years later, Witt might have the best overall skill set in MLB.

Witt controls the barrel well enough to win a batting title, possesses 30-homer power, threw 95 mph as a high school closer, makes plays at shortstop that his teammates can’t believe and is in the argument for fastest player in the game.

Among active players, only Shohei Ohtani can match Witt in terms of total plus tools. But only Ohtani’s hit, power and speed were on display this year, his pitching on hold while he recovers from offseason elbow surgery.

Mookie Betts also has a case, too. He won a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger in the same season five times, all as a right fielder. Witt has that kind of potential, the separator being his ability to captain the infield as a shortstop.

“It’s a rare combination of elite athleticism and tools, elite tools with elite skill. It’s all there,” Moore said of Witt. “It’s always been advanced. Plus he’s got elite makeup. It’s just a great, great package and speaks to who he is as a person and how he was raised.

“He is a legit five-tool player with baseball skill and a baseball mind.”

Moore’s assessment is hardly unique. Baseball’s best gushed over Witt in July during All-Star Game festivities in Arlington, Texas, where he had a home-field advantage of sorts. He purchased tickets for 30 family members and estimated that more than 100 friends would be in attendance.

The sold-out crowds of nearly 40,000 for the Home Run Derby and Midsummer Classic recognized the talent in addition to the local ties, giving the 24-year-old some of the loudest ovations of any player—hometown Rangers players included.

Witt humbly sidestepped the notion that he rates among the best of the best despite an abundance of evidence, ranging from traditional statistics to MLB Statcast figures to eyewitness testimony. He said he doesn’t even think he has a best skill.

“I feel like I can still get better in all aspects of the game,” he said. “I’ve just got to keep working and keep getting better.”

As Moore puts it, Witt can beat a team in more ways than any player in the game or in recent memory.

More than young Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz, who continues to develop. More than the Orioles’ Gunnar Henderson, the American League all-star shortstop starter. More than Mike Trout, whose arm strength wasn’t elite. And more than Ichiro Suzuki, who reached double figures in home runs just three times.

A case can be made that Witt grades out at 70 or higher in hitting, power, speed, fielding and arm strength on the 20-80 scouting scale.

“He just puts pressure on you in so many ways,” Moore said. “There are very few players in the game who can beat you in multiple ways.

“Junior can beat you with the glove. He can beat you with the arm, he can beat you with the legs, he can scratch out an infield hit, stay on a breaking ball the other way for a soft single, and he can turn around the fastball and hit it out of the ballpark and into the fountains (at Kauffman Stadium).”

Witt has big league bloodlines. His father is Bobby Witt Sr., who was drafted by the Rangers with the third overall pick in 1986 and pitched for 16 MLB seasons. He was known as a terrific competitor who never wanted to give up the ball. Witt Jr. said his mother, a high school swimmer, also contributed some athletic genes.

Witt conceded that players, coaches and fans are most surprised by how fast he runs. Entering the all-star break, he was tied for the MLB lead for fastest sprint speed of 30.4 feet per second and was ninth with an average home-to-first run time of 4.11 seconds.

“You can’t really appreciate it until you see it,” Henderson said.

Last season, Witt tied De La Cruz for the fastest sprint speed—30.5 feet per second—and finished tied for the AL lead with 25 infield hits.

Witt swiped 49 bases in 2023 to become a 30-homer, 40-steal player. He was the first Royals player in history to record a 30-30 season and the seventh player in MLB history to go 30-30 in his age-23 season or younger.

Witt became the first player in MLB history with at least 50 homers and 70 steals in his first two seasons.

“He does everything well,” Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams said. “He’s fast, super fast. He’s got super power. Seeing that on the field, it’s just fun to watch.”

Abrams was selected four picks after Witt in 2019 by the Padres, and the Orioles later nabbed Henderson in the second round at No. 42 overall. The phenoms watched each other play at showcase events over multiple summers before they launched their professional careers.

Abrams and Witt were teammates on USA Baseball’s 18U National Team in 2018—along with, among others, Anthony Volpe, Corbin Carroll, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Dylan Crews, Riley Greene and Jack Leiter—which captured the COPABE Pan-American championship. Witt was the tournament MVP after batting .576 and hitting for the cycle in the title game against Panama.

Two years after being drafted, Witt was the BA Minor League Player of the Year.

“It seems like all of his stuff in high school was very well-rounded, and it seems like throughout the years it gets even more well-rounded,” Henderson said. “Being able to watch him do that, just how he progresses each and every year, it’s been awesome to watch and I really enjoy competing with him.”

The 30-homer power might also surprise some. At 6-foot-1, 205 pounds, Witt isn’t a hulking figure like Adolis Garcia or Kyle Schwarber, but he’s put together. He tries to generate power by getting his lower half involved in his swing.

Bat speed helps, too, and Witt’s average bat speed rates above league average and is the fastest swing on a wild card contender which also includes all-star catcher Salvador Perez, who should reach 300 career homers next season.

“I’m not the biggest guy out there, so I’m just trying to create more force from the legs up,” Witt said. “It’s always been part of my game. I try to have all of the five tools, and one of them is power. So I just try to work to be able to do that.”

Phillies shortstop Trea Turner played for Team USA with Witt last year in the World Baseball Classic. Turner is one of the all-stars who recognized Witt’s attitude and work ethic as standing out as much or more than any of his tools.

Witt’s hit tool stood out most to Turner, especially in today’s age of power pitching. Witt ranked third in the AL last season with 177 hits while batting .286. He batted .323 in the first half of this season, behind only the Guardians’ Steven Kwan at .352. Witt opened the second half by going 9-for-11 in the first series after the All-Star Game to jump to .337.

“It’s hard to hit for a high average, especially in today’s game with velocity and great defense,” Turner said. “And he’s (24) years old. I think that’s most impressive.”

Witt has made the most improvement since debuting in 2022 with his defense. The Statcast metric outs above average assessed him a –9 as a rookie. That figure improved to 14 in 2023 and this year was on pace to be roughly double that total.

Rangers manager Bruce Bochy, who skippered the AL all-star team, called Witt’s play at shortstop “terrific” and said he could probably play any position in the field.

Witt’s best play so far this season might have been his running, over-the-shoulder catch on an Andy Pages flare at Dodger Stadium. Witt had the presence of mind to get the ball back to the infield, and the Royals doubled off Teoscar Hernandez at first base.

(Hernandez exacted a modicum of revenge by edging Witt to win the Home Run Derby—and the $1 million prize.)

Witt was playing on his 24th birthday, and the double play helped prevent lefthander Cole Ragans from getting into a jam against a prolific Dodgers lineup. Witt has topped out at 94.1 mph on throws this season, which rates as above-average.

“That guy’s a special player,” Ragans said. “He’s a superstar, but he’s one of the best human beings you’ll meet.”

Earlier this year, Royals GM J.J. Picollo signed Witt to an 11-year, $288.7 million extension. Moore, Picollo’s predecessor, said the deal should put the Royals in a position to contend for the postseason for years to come.

While there are no guarantees, Witt is the kind of player to build a franchise around. He possesses all five tools and the elite baseball IQ and makeup that ties the talent together.

“He’s the best player who I’ve ever scouted, for sure,” Moore said. “I can’t think of a player in our game who can beat you in as many ways as Bobby Witt Jr. can.”

The post Bobby Witt Jr. Might Be MLB’s Most Tooled Up Player appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

In the case of Bobby Witt Jr., foresight also was 20/20.

The Royals’ 24-year-old shortstop does everything well and is one of MLB’s brightest young superstars. Witt’s future potential on the field came into sharp focus three years ago during minor league Best Tools voting at midseason.

The post Was Bobby Witt Jr. The Superstar We Saw Coming? appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.