Fantasy https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/category/fantasy/ Baseball America is the authority on the MLB Draft, MLB prospects, college baseball, high school baseball, international free agents. Baseball America finds the future of the game of baseball. Tue, 20 Aug 2024 14:16:55 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.3 https://www.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bba-favicon-32x32-1.bmp Fantasy https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/category/fantasy/ 32 32 Fantasy Podcast: Talking Dynasty Baseball Strategy With Dan Greenberg https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-talking-dynasty-baseball-strategy-with-dan-greenberg/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-talking-dynasty-baseball-strategy-with-dan-greenberg/#respond Tue, 20 Aug 2024 14:16:54 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1487509 Geoff Pontes welcomes an experienced dynasty baseball manager onto the podcast to discuss potential buys and sells heading into next season.

The post Fantasy Podcast: Talking Dynasty Baseball Strategy With Dan Greenberg appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
This week on the Baseball America Fantasy Podcast, Geoff Pontes welcomes Dan Greenberg onto the program to talk dynasty strategy heading into the final month of the season, as well as offseason planning. Dan is an experienced dynasty manger who loves to dive into strategy, and we pick his brain on some potential buys and sells heading into next season.

  • Intro (0:00)
  • Hunter Greene (1:45)
  • Freddie Freeman (4:00)
  • Austin Riley (7:00)
  • Alex Bregman (10:00)
  • Pete Fairbanks (13:00)
  • Jared Jones (17:00)
  • Tyler Glasnow (22:00)
  • Jacob Wilson (26:00)
  • Connor Norby (30:00)
  • Older players to target late this season (35:00)
  • Bounce-back players coming off injury or poor performance (40:00)
  • Young MLB players with playing time concerns (48:00)

Powered by RedCircle

Want more podcasts like this one? Subscribe below!

Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Player FM

The post Fantasy Podcast: Talking Dynasty Baseball Strategy With Dan Greenberg appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-talking-dynasty-baseball-strategy-with-dan-greenberg/feed/ 0
RoboScout Top 100 Dynasty Targets (Aug. 18, 2024) https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-100-dynasty-targets-aug-18-2024/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-100-dynasty-targets-aug-18-2024/#respond Sun, 18 Aug 2024 15:33:25 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1485805 This week Dylan White updates RoboScout's Top 100 dynasty targets

The post RoboScout Top 100 Dynasty Targets (Aug. 18, 2024) appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
Every week, we put out a Top 25, per level, of the hitters and pitchers as determined by RoboScout. This list is derived by ranking the players within the level based on their minor league seasonal performance and applying park factors, regression, aging curves, and projecting expected fantasy value, considering their long term and peak performance. Underlying StatCast data is also folded into the results to nudge the ranking based on the surface stats, upward or downward based on the Statcast data that are most correlated with future fantasy performance.

Defense is not considered, nor is the “depth chart” of the major league club, nor previous year’s performance

Our weekly articles attempt to highlight some of the interesting prospect names – based on seasonal performance or based on recent movement in the rankings – and do a deep dive into some of the things that RoboScout doesn’t look at or that are beyond the “number” that RoboScout outputs to help frame the performance into a dynasty league context.

What the weekly articles haven’t done is aggregate all of the numbers into one “master” list. For example, if Emil Morales (Dodgers) is the top DSL hitter per RoboScout, is he a better target than Alex Freeland (Dodgers) who is the 43rd name on the Triple-A list?

Not doing this was by design for various reasons. For one, if one were to project fantasy value in the major leagues for the next three years, probably zero of the DSL hitters would even get a single plate appearance in the major leagues. But of course, they have value as prospects in a dynasty league. Also, deciding on how one wants to allocate your minor league roster slots amongst hitters and pitchers is also an important consideration in dynasty leagues, and something that might not be best served by having a master list of “the Top 100 Prospects per RoboScout”.

Nothing those caveats, I created exactly that list at the beginning of July and have now updated it. I’ve taken the estimated likelihood of making it to the major leagues, projected performance at peak, and fantasy value projected to be earned at peak – and ranked the hitters and pitchers accordingly – while also not considering defense or the depth chart of the parent club.

Of course, this list will be controversial and is not meant to be the end of the conversation or be the primary input for one’s waiver wire claims; for example, you probably shouldn’t trade Jesus Made (Brewers) – who is not on the list – for Brewers pitcher Chad Patrick (who would be #101 on this list if we extended it further. Also, you will see that Luis Perales (Red Sox) and Owen Murphy (Braves) appear on this list because RoboScout does not know that they are currently recovering from Tommy John surgery and is only looking at their 2024 performance on the season and projecting out. In other words, please apply the appropriate mental adjustments to the output – knowing that these are just the “agnostic” results of RoboScout.

Note, I also removed any prospects who have debuted in the major leagues. Therefore, James Wood (Nationals), Paul Skenes (Pirates), and Jackson Holliday (Orioles) have been removed – even though they would be the top three names, respectively. It also has removed players like Shay Whitcomb (Astros) and Dillon Dingler (Tigers)

To help provide some “performance” context, the estimated conservative peak projection is also listed beside each name, with data through August 16th.

#NameTeamAgeLevelPBA / K%OBP / BB%wRC+ / GB%HR / ERASB / WHIP
1Emmanuel RodriguezMIN21AA .264.3671292314
2Colt EmersonSEA18A+ .277.358112188
3Roman AnthonyBOS20AA .264.3451212612
4Leodalis De VriesSDP17A .269.348113309
5Moises BallesterosCHC20AA .282.354122242
6Noah SchultzCHW20AAP24%6%49%3.531.15
7Michael ArroyoSEA19A+ .259.336109285
8Agustin RamirezNYY22AA .274.3471233114
9Samuel BasalloBAL19AA .277.349121246
10Sebastian WalcottTEX18A+ .257.3331062212
11Bubba ChandlerPIT21AAAP24%6%46%3.761.16
12Kevin McGonigleDET19A+ .281.3531101614
13Cole YoungSEA20AA .278.3531171812
14Javier SanojaMIA21AAA .293.360119149
15Luke KeaschallMIN21AA .269.3461161913
16Christian MooreLAA21AA .258.335117274
17Logan HendersonMIL22AAP24%6%40%3.781.15
18Kristian CampbellBOS22AA .269.3491242013
19Luke AdamsMIL20A+ .258.3431042118
20Alejandro RosarioTEX22A+P23%6%47%3.571.19
21Chase MeidrothBOS22AAA .279.363115119
22Quinn MathewsSTL23A+P25%8%51%3.681.21
23Luis PeralesBOS21A+P24%8%47%3.821.25
24Tink HenceSTL21AAP25%7%47%3.501.17
25Jarlin SusanaWSN20A+P23%8%57%3.621.26
26Franklin AriasBOS18A .271.3451172322
27Lazaro MontesSEA19A+ .255.330106292
28Matt WilkinsonCLE21AP30%8%45%3.361.11
29Xavier IsaacTBR20AA .257.3391242610
30Owen MurphyATL20A+P26%7%39%3.981.17
31Edgar QueroCHW21AA .269.338113262
32Chase DollanderCOL22A+P26%8%40%4.021.22
33Hao-Yu LeeDET21AA .269.3381152112
34Bryce EldridgeSFG19A+ .250.324101263
35Matthew LugoBOS23AA .261.3361192714
36Robert CalazCOL18A .268.3451233010
37Blake MitchellKCR19A .244.3271062812
38Eric BitontiMIL18A .257.337116295
39Cam CollierCIN19A+ .249.32499241
40David SandlinBOS23AAP24%7%40%4.071.22
41Carson WilliamsTBR21AA .253.3311142219
42Sal StewartCIN20A+ .261.336100177
43Aidan SmithSEA19A .254.3311062617
44Jaison ChourioCLE19A .270.3521071423
45Arjun NimmalaTOR18A .241.313102314
46Pablo GuerreroTEX17A .257.326110273
47Zyhir HopeLAD19A .250.326104267
48Kumar RockerTEX24AAP23%8%47%3.911.23
49Eduardo TaitPHI17A .273.336112264
50Ryan CliffordNYM20AA .247.335108233
51Carter JensenKCR20AA .261.342114209
52Max ClarkDET19A+ .261.3321031814
53Josue De PaulaLAD19A+ .254.331971810
54James TriantosCHC21AA .278.3371091426
55Matt ShawCHC22AA .265.3391132118
56Axiel PlazPIT18A .244.317100362
57Dalton RushingLAD23AA .258.332114261
58Jonah TongNYM21AP29%9%47%3.611.17
59Walker JenkinsMIN19A+ .265.33699166
60Braxton AshcraftPIT24AAP21%6%45%3.981.23
61Jesus BaezNYM19A+ .262.326100256
62Thayron LiranzoDET20A+ .246.32797231
63Thomas HarringtonPIT22AAP21%5%40%4.081.20
64Alex FreelandLAD22AA .257.3361091817
65Demetrio CrisantesARI19A .265.3351051613
66Yeremi CabreraTEX18CPX .255.3341033514
67Marcelo MayerBOS21AA .264.3341121711
68Elehuris MonteroCOL25AAA .247.317110212
69Henry BolteOAK20AA .245.3251142020
70Max MuncyOAK21AAA .253.325108216
71Jimmy CrooksSTL22AA .262.336115194
72Travis SykoraWSN20AP25%8%42%3.681.20
73William BergollaCHW19A+ .273.335971120
74Brandon SproatNYM23AAP22%8%52%3.891.27
75Sean SullivanCOL21A+P22%5%40%3.861.16
76K.C. HuntMIL23A+P25%7%43%3.751.19
77Kohl DrakeTEX23A+P24%7%42%3.851.21
78Angel GenaoCLE20A+ .260.321981712
79George KlassenPHI22A+P25%9%51%3.801.25
80Welbyn FranciscaCLE18A .269.341110239
81Troy MeltonDET23AAP20%7%45%4.151.28
82Chandler ChamplainKCR24AAP24%7%43%3.851.20
83Jadher AreinamoMIL20A+ .269.328981818
84Jhostynxon GarciaBOS21A+ .246.30997299
85C.J. KayfusCLE22AA .256.332115193
86Samuel ZavalaCHW19A+ .250.33290188
87Tre’ MorganTBR21A+ .269.3331011512
88Ben ShieldsNYY25AAP21%8%49%4.041.28
89Colby ThomasOAK23AA .258.3211092913
90Harry FordSEA21AA .255.3351061419
91Thomas WhiteMIA19A+P19%7%49%4.051.30
92Mikey RomeroBOS20A+ .254.31496232
93Didier FuentesATL19AP20%7%42%4.001.26
94Emil MoralesLAD17DSL .241.32199776
95Cooper PrattMIL19A+ .257.325981416
96Peter Van LoonBAL25AAP24%9%44%4.141.28
97Alessandro ErcolaniPIT20A+P20%7%42%4.351.30
98Moises ChacePHI21A+P23%9%46%4.301.33
99Jonny FarmeloSEA19A .248.326962017
100Alfredo DunoCIN18A .246.32198204

The post RoboScout Top 100 Dynasty Targets (Aug. 18, 2024) appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-100-dynasty-targets-aug-18-2024/feed/ 0
RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On Aug. 11, 2024 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-aug-11-2024/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-aug-11-2024/#respond Sun, 11 Aug 2024 16:22:14 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1480808 This week's edition of RoboScout's look at baseball's top prospects highlights a young Dodgers international signing who is emerging.

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On Aug. 11, 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
It is trade deadline day in some of my Dynasty Leagues and I expect a lot of players – and prospects – to be involved in some deals today. We are also starting to accumulate a body of work for some draftees, with some hitters reaching 20 plate appearances or more – though still a bit low for the below lists – but they have all been overshadowed by Christian Moore (Angels) and his dream-like start to his professional career. RoboScout tries to stay dispassionate but even they can’t contain their excitement at Moore’s start and their CPU fan has been whirring for days.

The lists below are for games through Friday, August 9.

As always, RoboScout has been watching it all for you.

Note that the Complex League hitter and pitcher lists are no longer being shown since their seasons are over. To see the final rankings for the Complex League, click here.

As a reminder, the RoboScore is the value (0 to 100) assigned per level by RoboScout based on 2024 statistical performance and projecting fantasy value (without considering defensive ability or position). The RoboCast number is the RoboScore but with Statcast blended in and then transformed to the 0 to 100 scale.

Dominican Summer League Hitters (min 20 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Emil MoralesLAD100100
2Rainiel RodriguezSTL9395
3Eduardo BeltreMIN8792
4Jesus MadeMIL8087
5Juneiker CaceresCLE8687
6Stiven MartinezBAL7682
7Luis PenaMIL7781
8Jose AndersonMIL7680
9Edward FlorentinoPIT6979
10Yolfran CastilloTEX7079
11Juan OrtunoMIL7077
12Santiago CamachoSFG7176
13Sebastian BaqueraTEX6776
14Elvin GarciaBAL6676
15Jirvin MorilloCIN6875
16Arnaldo LantiguaLAD6275
17Ching-Hsien KoLAD5974
18Justin GonzalesBOS6574
19Adriander MejiaBAL6173
20Iverson AllenPIT6173

 The top three hitters each hit a home run – with Eduardo Beltre (Twins) hitting two – as the top five continue to separate from the rest of the DSL hitting pack as their own tier.

Santiago Camacho (Giants) and Sebastian Baquera (Rangers), two catchers who appear adjacent to each other on the rankings, both show above-average receiving ability in addition to their hitting ability. This is something that RoboScout doesn’t know when calculating their RoboScore.

The most interesting new name – who appears after having now accrued 20 plate appearances – is Taiwanese international signee Ching-Hsien Ko (Dodgers), a 6-foot-3-inch outfielder. After signing in June, reportedly for around $700,000, Ko has already smashed a home run and shows a knack for barreling the ball. Although the sample size is extremely small, the center fielder has shown a very patient approach with a chase rate in the single digits, though his contact rate and his exit velocities are so far only average. RoboScout will be keeping a keen eye on him and his high ceiling.

Low-A Hitters (min 35 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Leodalis De VriesSDP100100
2Eric BitontiMIL9197
3Franklin AriasBOS9295
4Colt EmersonSEA8792
5Michael ArroyoSEA8690
6Blake MitchellKCR8387
7Kevin McGonigleDET8286
8Aidan SmithTBR8285
9Zyhir HopeLAD7783
10Eduardo TaitPHI9183
11Jaison ChourioCLE7982
12Demetrio CrisantesARI7582
13Jonny FarmeloSEA7781
14Starlyn CabaPHI7981
15Lazaro MontesSEA9081
16Arjun NimmalaTOR8280
17Walker JenkinsMIN7680
18Josue De PaulaLAD7480
19Axiel PlazPIT8779
20Jhonny SeverinoPIT7678
21Jeral PerezLAD7376
22Ralphy VelazquezCLE7575
23Alfredo DunoCIN7575
24Jesus BaezNYM7674
25Bryce EldridgeSFG7073

Eric Bitonti (Brewers) has been on fire since being promoted to Low-A Carolina with five home runs in his first 40 plate appearances. Although that power explosion has also come with a 30% strikeout rate, the 18-year old third baseman shows good swing decisions as evidenced by his 19% walk rate at the Complex. That translates to a floor of a three true outcomes hitter – with the high-end potential for 25 to 30 home run power in the major leagues, with a batting average around .250 and an on base percentage around .340 to .350.

Blake Mitchell (Royals) hit three home runs this past week and climbs up to sixth on the Low-A list. With Carter Jensen, the Royals have solid RoboScout-approved catchers in the system.

The three 2024 draftees who have a minimum of 20 plate appearances at Low-A and who RoboScout has been watching early, despite the extremely small sample sizes, are Kyle DeBarge (Twins), JJ Wetherholt (Cardinals) and Carson DeMartini (Phillies). DeBarge, the 33rd overall pick who signed with the Twins overslot for $2.4 million and DeMartini, a fourth rounder, are showing similar high-contact, average power, and low chase rate profiles thus far in their professional debuts. That tracks for DeBarge who was drafted with the reputation of a contact-oriented hitter, but DeMartini was drafted for power from the hot corner and only had a 70% contact rate over his collegiate career with a particularly eyebrow-raising 28% strikeout rate in his draft year. At Low-A Clearwater though, DeMartini has only struck out 15% of the time with a contact rate of 86%. Whether this is an approach change remains to be seen, but with a home run, three stolen bases and a 253 wRC+ in his first 21 plate appearances, he already has RoboScout’s attention.

Wetherholt, the seventh overall draft pick of 2024 hit his first professional home run this week, has a 90% exit velocity of over 105 mph, has been showing great swing decisions with only a 10% chase rate, and has a walk-to-strikeout ratio of five to two. So far, he’s been delivering everything the Cardinals could have hoped.

Low-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Matt WilkinsonCLE100100
2Jonah TongNYM9196
3Quinn MathewsSTL8695
4Travis SykoraWSN9195
5Jarlin SusanaWSN8193
6Alejandro RosarioTEX8593
7Didier FuentesATL8392
8Santiago SuarezTBR8092
9George KlassenLAA8192
10Grant TaylorCHW7790
11Trevor HarrisonTBR8290
12Yujanyer HerreraMIL8485
13Eliazar DishmeyMIA7183
14Thomas WhiteMIA7282
15Jace KaminskaCOL7782
16Kohl DrakeTEX8281
17Sean LinanLAD8181
18Welinton HerreraCOL7080
19Adam SerwinowskiCIN6880
20Gary Gill HillTBR7980
21Jose GonzalezTEX7380
22Mavis GravesPHI8579
23Jackson NezuhHOU6878
24Bishop LetsonMIL6778
25Noble MeyerMIA6878

Travis Sykora (Nationals) continues to climb, now with the fourth highest RoboCast score for the level, up from seventh last week and passing org-mate Jarlin Susana. There is no hotter pitcher at Low-A, as Sykora has fanned an incredible 48% of batters he’s faced over his last six starts with a microscopic 0.61 WHIP. Last week he was a top 125 fantasy prospect. This week, he is probably a top 100 fantasy prospect.

An interesting deep-league name has emerged in the Dodger organization: Roque Gutierrez, a 21-year old Mexican right hander. On the season, his 77.2 innings for Low-A Rancho Cucamonga with a 1.40 WHIP and 5.33 ERA do not look particularly compelling. However, since June 28 – when he had a 1.69 WHIP and 6.43 ERA – he has made seven starts, averaging 5 innings in each, and has struck out 38% of batters, walked only 8%, for a 1.08 WHIP and 4.04 ERA. Gutierrez has a 93 mph fastball, a mid-80s slider, a mid-80s cutter, and a splitter – while also occasionally mixing in a curveball. If his recent success is indicative of his true talent, it’s a potential back of the rotation profile.

High-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Michael ArroyoSEA100100
2Luke AdamsMIL9597
3Luke KeaschallMIN9194
4Kevin McGonigleDET9394
5Sebastian WalcottTEX9993
6Sal StewartCIN8488
7Lazaro MontesSEA9688
8Xavier IsaacTBR8988
9Walker JenkinsMIN8487
10Carter JensenKCR8586
11Josue De PaulaLAD8186
12Bryce EldridgeSFG8084
13Jhostynxon GarciaBOS7883
14Alex FreelandLAD7683
15Max ClarkDET8582
16Cooper PrattMIL7981
17Cam CollierCIN7979
18Mike BoeveMIL7179
19Angel GenaoCLE7578
20Samuel ZavalaCHW7878
21William BergollaPHI7878
22Henry BolteOAK7578
23Cooper IngleCLE7178
24Tre’ MorganTBR7578
25Allan CastroBOS7077

Bryce Eldridge (Giants) started off slowly in 2024 after getting tremendous buzz heading into the year. Focusing solely on hitting, Eldridge has put up plus to plus-plus exit velocities but at the expense of fringe-average contact. That trade-off is typically worth it, but in 2024 the results hadn’t really caught up to the underlying metrics. Last week though, Eldridge hit a home run and stole a base, raising his High-A wRC+ from 125 to 151. The power is in the 25 to 30 home run range – the question is whether he can manage his contact rate as he rises through the levels.

Jesus Baez (Mets) started off extremely strongly in Low-A list but has gradually tapered off as the season has worn on, ultimately finishing the level at 123 wRC+ with 10 home runs and eight stolen bases over 284 plate appearances as a 19-year old before being promoted to High-A Brooklyn. Under the hood, Baez was showing a better 90th percentile exit velocity than fellow 19-year olds Lazaro Montes (Mariners) and Walker Jenkins (Twins) while also posting a higher barrel rate and xwOBAcon than both of them. After 32 plate appearances in High-A – where he did manage to hit a home run and steal a base – Baez’s season is now done after undergoing knee surgery. On the whole, RoboScout sees him as a league average bat with 25 home run potential. Splitting his defensive time pretty much equally between third base and shortstop – with a little bit of second base thrown in – it’s more than likely that Baez will end up at the hot corner with his plus arm. One to watch in 2025.

High-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Noah SchultzCHW92100
2Jarlin SusanaWSN93100
3Alejandro RosarioTEX9699
4Quinn MathewsSTL9599
5Luis PeralesBOS9098
6Owen MurphyATL9298
7Chase DollanderCOL9097
8Matt WilkinsonCLE10095
9Zebby MatthewsMIN8592
10George KlassenPHI8591
11K.C. HuntMIL9289
12Jonah TongNYM8888
13Kohl DrakeTEX9488
14Thomas WhiteMIA8388
15Alessandro ErcolaniPIT7887
16Brett WichrowskiMIL8286
17Sean SullivanCOL9586
18Winston SantosTEX7784
19Jaden HammDET8783
20Owen WildTBR8082
21Brandyn GarciaSEA7381
22Jedixson PaezBOS9280
23Austin PetersonCLE8180
24Luis MoralesOAK7180
25Ethan PeckoHOU8180

Jarlin Susana (Nationals) climbs his way into a tie for highest pitcher at the level with another excellent week. If you want to read more, see last weeks’ article.

Yoniel Curet (Rays) is just outside the Top 25 but he has been pitching extremely well over the last six weeks. On the season he has a 29% strikeout rate and a gaudy 12% walk rate leading to a 1.25 WHIP and 3.45 ERA in almost 90 innings. Over his last six starts, he has a 36% strikeout rate, a 9% walk rate, and a 1.07 WHIP and 0.99 ERA over 27 innings. He is 29th in the Rays Top 30 where we graded him out as having a plus-plus fastball and plus slider but only a 40 grade on his control. If he can maintain the improvements that he has made over the last six weeks, he will cut down his reliever risk considerably.

In the Rangers Top 30, Canadian lefthander Mitch Bratt sits at 24th on the strength of his advanced pitchability with the opportunity to be a back of the rotation starter if he could gain arm strength. In 2023, at High-A his fastball maxed out at 91.8 mph; in 2024, he averages 91.3 mph and has touched 95.5 mph with 10% of his fastballs being faster than 93 mph – leading to an improvement in Stuff+ on our internal model by over half a standard deviation. In his last three starts for High-A Hickory, Bratt threw 16.1 innings, striking out 24 and only walking three batters before earning the promotion to Double-A Frisco. In his two starts at Double-A, he has a strikeout minus walk rate of 19% over 11 innings, and has continued to show great control with a Ball% of 33%. Interestingly enough, Bratt’s major league projection based on his High-A season is actually slightly better than the projection for his teammate Winston Santos – with a better WHIP but slightly fewer strikeouts than Santos. In other words, if you prefer pitchability over “stuff”, RoboScout says it’s ok to lean Bratt.

Double-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Emmanuel RodriguezMIN100100
2Agustin RamirezNYY8990
3Luke KeaschallMIN8588
4Roman AnthonyBOS8687
5Moises BallesterosCHC8887
6Xavier IsaacTBR9187
7Carter JensenKCR8685
8Matthew LugoBOS8084
9Cole YoungSEA8282
10Samuel BasalloBAL8882
11Kristian CampbellBOS7581
12Deyvison De Los SantosARI8280
13Alex FreelandLAD7380
14Carson WilliamsTBR8079
15Edgar QueroCHW7679
16Ryan CliffordNYM7878
17Dalton RushingLAD7178
18Hao-Yu LeeDET7878
19Matt ShawCHC7577
20C.J. KayfusCLE7275
21Colby ThomasOAK7175
22Brayden TaylorTBR7975
23Jacob WilsonOAK6775
24Henry BolteOAK7273
25Tyler LocklearSEA6773

The story of the minor leagues this past week has been the incredible tear that Christian Moore (Angels), the eighth overall draft pick a few weeks ago, has been on – as the second baseman belted six home runs in his first 33 plate appearances in professional baseball. What he has done at Double-A Rocket City alone – five home runs, a 438 wRC+ and a .742 xwOBAcon in 21 plate appearances – is making it more and more likely that the ultra-aggressive Angels call him up to the major leagues before September. The 90th percentile exit velocity is 108.7 mph and he has a maximum of 112.6 mph already – already higher than what Wyatt Langford has been able to register in his professional career. Any skepticism surrounding whether he could hit with wooden bats should be now considered dispelled. It’s extremely early but Moore has to be considered a top 25 fantasy prospect with this fairy tale beginning to his professional career, as he’s showing the potential for 25 to 30 home runs from the keystone.

Now that he qualifies for the list, Xavier Isaac (Rays) debuts in sixth place. Although the swing-and-miss is very real, his body of work from High-A where he hit 15 home runs as a 20 year old, still has RoboScout projecting him to be an above average hitter with the potential for 25+ home runs annually in the big leagues. The concern though is that he becomes at best a three true outcomes hitter, as he has had a higher-than-30% strikeout rate in 2024 with only a 60% contact rate for the season. Again, the quality of the contact so far outweighs the contact rate but as he is now in Double-A, he will face a true test as to whether the smacking can transcend the hacking.

In these pages, we’ve talked a lot about how the Astros adhere to the above philosophy of big power superseding fringe-average contact rates and this being their prospect hitter archetype. Although Zach Cole (Astros) isn’t quite in the top 25 for the level, the 23-year old outfielder definitely is on-brand for the organization, and has been on a bit of a hot streak the past six weeks with six home runs, three stolen bases, and a 203 wRC+ in his last 76 plate appearances.  As you would expect, he has an above average to plus quality of contact, as measured by 90th percentile exit velocity, xwOBAcon and barrel rate – and, as you might expect, has a strikeout rate above 30%, and a corresponding contact rate just shy of 70%. This will lead to streakiness and right now Cole is on a hot one. He is probably a Top 400 fantasy prospect, but be prepared for volatility.

This week it was announced that Luke Keaschall (Twins) would be out for the rest of the season for Tommy John surgery. One of the biggest RoboScout breakouts of the year, Keaschall had a 185 wRC+ with seven home runs and 14 stolen bases in High-A over 197 plate appearances and then proceeded to blast another eight bombs and steal nine more bases in Double-A with a 137 wRC+ over 267 more plate appearances. That performance as a 21-year old projects him to be a .270/.350 bat with 20 home runs and 15 stolen bases in the major leagues. Under the hood, he showed plus swing decisions and plus contact with average bat speed but an above average knack for the barrel. A top 25 fantasy prospect for RoboScout heading into 2025.

Double-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Zebby MatthewsMIN100100
2Noah SchultzCHW98100
3Logan HendersonMIL9893
4Bubba ChandlerPIT9092
5Chase DollanderCOL8991
6David SandlinBOS9091
7Tink HenceSTL9890
8Braxton AshcraftPIT9088
9Quinn MathewsSTL8987
10Thomas HarringtonPIT9086
11Brandon SproatNYM8885
12Troy MeltonDET8385
13Ben ShieldsNYY8784
14Ben CaspariusLAD8183
15Blade TidwellNYM7983
16Chandler ChamplainKCR9582
17Jacob MisiorowskiMIL7782
18Winston SantosTEX7980
19Spencer SchwellenbachATL8480
20Brandyn GarciaSEA7780
21Caden DanaLAA8480
22Kyle McGowinCHC8279
23Zach PenrodBOS8779
24Yilber DiazARI8378
25Carson PalmquistCOL8378

Now that they both qualify for the Double-A list, Chase Dollander (Rockies) and David Sandlin (Red Sox) enter the Top Six. We’ve talked about Dollander quite a bit this year, as he is seventh on the High-A list after throwing 70 innings with a 28% strikeout minus walk rate and excellent 18% swinging strike rate as a 22-year old for Spokane. In his first three starts for Double-A Hartford, he hasn’t been as effective yet, with a 24% strikeout rate, an 11% walk rate and only an 11% swinging strike rate which is actually below average for the league. In aggregate for the season though, he still projects as a mid-rotation starter.

Sandlin, on the other hand, has started his small sample Double-A stint quite well with a 34% strikeout rate and only a 2% walk rate – though with two home runs over his 12 innings of work across three starts. Slightly off-brand for the Red Sox, Sandlin throws his four seam fastball primarily – but why wouldn’t he when it sits 96 mph and has touched 100 mph? Because of the high-velocity fastball, his tight 85 mph slider and 85 mph sweeper – the second of which has over 16 inches of horizontal break – both play up and grade out very well. He also throws a splitter – as well as a curveball and cutter that each have discrete movement profiles from his slider and from his sweeper. RoboScout sees a back of the rotation starter but with stuff that, if it continues to advance and actualize into expected results, could get him to be a mid-rotation starter. All in all, I think he is underrated on most lists and should be somewhere in the 150 to 175 range for fantasy prospects.

In Double-A this season, Parker Messick (Guardians) has a strikeout minus walk rate of 28% and a swinging strike rate of 17% over his 33 innings of work which are both higher than the marks put up by Zebby Matthews (Twins), Noah Schultz (White Sox) and Bubba Chandler (Pirates) at the same level. However, when combined with the 20% mark that he put up in his 68 innings at High-A Lake County, his aggregated body of work lowers his projection to that of an up-and-down starter. If you look only at his Double-A Akron results though, the 23-year old lefthander – with his low slot release but high extension – profiles more as a back-of-the-rotation starter with a chance for more. Funnily enough, fellow Guardian southpaw Logan Allen had a nearly identical strikeout and walk rate as Messick at the same age in 2022 at Akron. In your dynasty leagues where he is not yet rostered, keep an eye on him: if he has a few more solid starts, considering that he is already in Double-A, there is a very high likelihood that he will play a role for the Guardians in 2025.

A belated congratulations to Logan Henderson (Brewers) – as the third ranked RoboScout Double-A pitcher earned a promotion to Triple-A Nashville!

Triple-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1James WoodWSN100100
2Jackson HollidayBAL9392
3Coby MayoBAL8891
4Kyle ManzardoCLE8388
5Adrian Del CastilloARI7986
6Miguel VargasCHW7886
7Jose FerminSTL7584
8Andy PagesLAD7482
9Chase MeidrothBOS7481
10Elehuris MonteroCOL7381
11Jacob WilsonOAK7078
12Dillon DinglerDET6978
13Shay WhitcombHOU7677
14Angel MartinezCLE7576
15Moises BallesterosCHC7476
16Agustin RamirezMIA7376
17Deyvison De Los SantosMIA8276
18Javier SanojaMIA7575
19Matthew LugoLAA6875
20Henry DavisPIT7274
21Joey LoperfidoHOU6573
22Niko KavadasLAA6373
23Jonatan ClaseTOR6973
24Jerar EncarnacionSFG6672
25Edgar QueroCHW6972

Checking in on some prospects that have only recently been promoted to Triple-A, James Triantos and Matt Shaw of the Cubs have both struggled in their first four games with a negative 18 wRC+ and 4 wRC+ respectively. Obviously this is not anything to be concerned about and RoboScout still sees them as league-average hitters with each projected to have around 40 home runs plus stolen bases.

Dalton Rushing (Dodgers) was promoted to Triple-A and has been playing primarily left field, suggesting he may be called up to the major leagues for the playoff push. So far, he hasn’t gotten much going either with no home runs and a 33 wRC+ in his first 20 plate appearances. Again, with one of the most solidly “red” statcast profiles in all of the minor leagues, RoboScout sees the catcher/outfielder as a fairly safe above average bat with 25 to 30 home run potential. Easily a top 50 fantasy prospect irrespective of what position he ultimately plays.

After a less-than-compelling 2024 in Colorado and subsequent demotion, Elehuris Montero (Rockies) has been en fuego at Triple-A Albuquerque with a 203 wRC+ and ten home runs in 132 plate appearances. Those ten home runs are tied for second-most at the level since June 28th, behind only the 11 from Jordan Diaz (Athletics) and tied with Colby Thomas (Athletics) and Adrian Del Castillo (Diamondbacks). It should only be a matter of time before Montero is back up with the parent club.

Triple-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Paul SkenesPIT100100
2Christian ScottNYM9191
3Zebby MatthewsMIN8788
4David FestaMIN8980
5Will WarrenNYY8080
6Chayce McDermottBAL8179
7Tylor MegillNYM8178
8Jack LeiterTEX7577
9Carson SpiersCIN7677
10Tobias MyersMIL7476
11Chad PatrickMIL7775
12Louie VarlandMIN7975
13Yilber DiazARI7974
14Cade PovichBAL8574
15Elieser HernandezLAD7474
16Braxton AshcraftPIT7674
17Robert GasserMIL7173
18Blake SnellSFG7472
19AJ Smith-ShawverATL7472
20Alek ManoahTOR7672
21Slade CecconiARI7871
22Quinn PriesterPIT8471
23Cristian MenaARI8071
24Reid DetmersLAA8570
25Matt ManningDET6870

Zebby Matthews (Twins) walked a batter in his last start and now has an unsightly 1.2% walk rate over his 19 innings at Triple-A. With Joe Ryan potentially missing the rest of the season, Twins manager Derek Falvey hinted that there was a fairly good chance that Matthews would be called up next week. Preemptive congratulations to RoboScout’s fourth best pitcher of the 2024 minor league season, behind only Paul Skenes (Pirates), Christian Scott (Mets) and Noah Schultz (White Sox) for his major league debut!

On July 31, Noah Cameron (Royals) made his Triple A debut against the Nationals’ Rochester affiliate and struck out 10 without walking any batters over 6 innings. Fast forward to seven days later and the righthander struck out seven Cubs, again without walking any. On the season, RoboScout sees Cameron as a back of the rotation starter as he does not have eye-popping stuff, sitting 92 mph with his four-seam fastball, with a splitter/changeup and a downer curveball from his high release slot – but it has been quite a first two Triple-A games for Cameron.

Happy bidding!

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On Aug. 11, 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-aug-11-2024/feed/ 0
Fantasy Podcast: Reviewing The P1 ADP Prospect Mocks https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-reviewing-the-p1-adp-prospect-mocks/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-reviewing-the-p1-adp-prospect-mocks/#respond Thu, 08 Aug 2024 13:58:04 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1471357 This week on the Baseball America Fantasy Baseball Podcast, Dylan and Geoff discuss each of their P1 ADP Mocks. Every year Chris Welsh puts together…

The post Fantasy Podcast: Reviewing The P1 ADP Prospect Mocks appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
This week on the Baseball America Fantasy Baseball Podcast, Dylan and Geoff discuss each of their P1 ADP Mocks. Every year Chris Welsh puts together the P1 ADP mocks with the goal of getting a temperature on how prospects are valued by dynasty managers and experts. The hosts discuss pick by pick as well as some of the other options available at each pick. It’s a good discussion of values and strategy in drafts.

Powered by RedCircle

Want more podcasts like this one? Subscribe below!

Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Player FM

The post Fantasy Podcast: Reviewing The P1 ADP Prospect Mocks appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-reviewing-the-p1-adp-prospect-mocks/feed/ 0
RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On Aug. 4, 2024 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-aug-4-2024/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-aug-4-2024/#respond Sun, 04 Aug 2024 18:00:44 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1469500 RoboScout's latest dive into potential fantasy FAAB adds covets several Nationals pitching prospects and a pair of Dodgers teammates.

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On Aug. 4, 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
Somehow the calendar flipped to August and only one-third of the major league season is left. The MLB trade deadline is behind us. The trade deadline in your dynasty league—please make sure you have a trade deadline in your dynasty league—is probably approaching or also in the past.

That doesn’t mean there is nothing to care about in the minor leagues. In most of my leagues, we’re allowed to pick up minor leaguers all the way until the end of the season. And, especially as draftees have now started to be assigned to professional affiliates, we’re starting to see some data from them—albeit fewer than 20 plate appearances in most cases.

As always, RoboScout watches it all for you.

As a reminder, the RoboScore is the value (0 to 100) assigned per level by RoboScout based on 2024 statistical performance and projecting fantasy value (without considering defensive ability or position). The RoboCast number is the RoboScore but with Statcast blended in and then transformed to the 0 to 100 scale.

Dominican Summer League Hitters (min 30 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Emil MoralesLAD100100
2Rainiel RodriguezSTL9395
3Eduardo BeltreMIN8491
4Jesus MadeMIL8189
5Jose AndersonMIL8185
6Juneiker CaceresCLE8082
7Edward FlorentinoPIT7081
8Luis PenaMIL7781
9Yolfran CastilloTEX7180
10Stiven MartinezBAL7278
11Elvin GarciaBAL6777
12Arnaldo LantiguaLAD6276
13Adriander MejiaBAL6376
14Juan OrtunoMIL6976
15Jirvin MorilloCIN6875
16Cesar LugoCHC6375
17Estivel MorilloCLE7375
18Jaset MartinezCIN6174
19Queni PinedaNYY6074
20Sebastian BaqueraTEX6373

 

Dodgers shortstop Emil Morales regains the top spot by a large gap after a preposterous week where he hit five home runs and stole two bases. Morales now leads all DSL hitters with 12 homers through 167 plate appearances. He’s likely the consensus top prospect in the DSL, although Jesus Made (Brewers), or Eduardo Beltre (Twins) if you listened to our latest fantasy podcast, may take offense.

Morales’ teammate, Arnaldo Lantigua, is second in the DSL with 10 homers after hitting three this week. Lantigua now ranks 12th on our hitters list after ranking No. 24 last week. Lantigua signed for $700,000 as a physically mature corner outfielder out of the Dominican Republic in 2023. He had above-average power with average speed. Keep in mind he’s repeating the level and is already 18 years old.

In 2023, Lantigua’s 90th percentile exit velocity was 99.7 mph with a 106.7 mph max. This year he already has six balls in play that have been hit over 104 mph, with a maximum exit velocity of 109.4 mph. He also has been showing little problem catching up to high velocity in a small sample size. We don’t like to invest too heavily in 18-year-olds who are doing well in the DSL, but Lantigua is also showing average contact and average chase to supplement his plus exit velocities. Expect to see him stateside next year and to likely reach full-season ball.

Complex League Hitters (FINAL, min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Franklin AriasBOS100100
2Robert CalazCOL10098
3Yeremi CabreraTEX9797
4Eric BitontiMIL9496
5Pablo GuerreroTEX9393
6Eduardo QuinteroLAD8489
7Eduardo TaitPHI9788
8Yoeilin CespedesBOS8487
9Javier MogollonCHW8685
10Engelth UrenaNYY7784
11Welbyn FranciscaCLE8584
12Daiverson GutierrezNYM7983
13Starlyn CabaPHI7983
14Edgleen PerezNYY7482
15Brailer GuerreroTBR7681
16Felnin CelestenSEA7681
17Braylin MorelTEX8581
18Miguel RodriguezBAL7480
19Yolfran CastilloTEX7680
20Jhonny SeverinoPIT7579
21Aroon EscobarPHI7279
22Jeremy RodriguezNYM8479
23Luis MerejoCLE7378
24Dameury PenaMIN7878
25Yasser MercedesMIN7378
26Carlos TavaresWSN7277
27Demetrio CrisantesARI6675
28Franyerber MontillaDET7074
29Antonis MaciasTEX6574
30Alexander AlbertusLAD6873
31Arjun NimmalaTOR7373
32John GilATL7673
33Abrahan RamirezNYY6573
34Walker JenkinsMIN6572
35Andruw MusettBOS6972

With the Complex League season over, we’ve extended out the list to display the Top 35.

Complex League Pitchers (FINAL, min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Trevor HarrisonTBR95100
2Yordy HerreraSTL100100
3Christian ZazuetaLAD8993
4Samuel SanchezLAD9493
5Sean LinanLAD9292
6Ovis PortesBOS8692
7Hayden RobinsonMIL9591
8Joseph YabbourNYM8491
9Keyner BenitezMIA10091
10Jefferson JeanOAK8991
11Juan ValeraBOS8789
12Jacob BresnahanCLE9489
13Rafael GonzalezHOU8489
14Adrian HerreraCIN8488
15Johan SimonTOR8188
16Jogly GarciaCLE8488
17Alix HernandezSFG8688
18Sandy OzunaCOL9286
19Luis MorellisCIN8985
20Jesus CarreraHOU8685
21Hyun-Seok JangLAD8385
22Keythel KeyLAA8084
23Zander MuethPIT7884
24Jordarlin MendozaNYY7884
25Nelfy YnfanteSTL9184

 

Low-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Franklin AriasBOS97100
2Leodalis De VriesSDP10098
3Colt EmersonSEA8892
4Michael ArroyoSEA8889
5Aidan SmithSEA8587
6Kevin McGonigleDET8486
7Eduardo TaitPHI9386
8Blake MitchellKCR8184
9Starlyn CabaPHI8183
10Zyhir HopeLAD7782
11Jaison ChourioCLE8182
12Demetrio CrisantesARI7682
13Axiel PlazPIT8781
14Jonny FarmeloSEA7881
15Lazaro MontesSEA9281
16Arjun NimmalaTOR8480
17Walker JenkinsMIN7780
18Josue De PaulaLAD7580
19Jeral PerezLAD7678
20Yasser MercedesMIN7375
21Alfredo DunoCIN7775
22Jesus BaezNYM7774
23Max ClarkDET7774
24Ralphy VelazquezCLE7574
25Cooper PrattMIL7373

Although Phillies SS Starlyn Caba has a 24 wRC+ through 33 Low-A plate appearances, he has seven steals without being caught. We’ve previously raved about his elite defense from the shortstop position. If he can steal 25-to-30 bases per season, he has set a very high fantasy floor.

Caba’s teammate, C Eduardo Tait, has already blasted three home runs through 28 plate appearances for Clearwater. Tait hit six homers at the Complex at 17 years old and is one of RoboScout’s favorite breakouts of 2024. Only two months older than Leodalis de Vries (Padres), Tait has actually produced a higher 90th percentile exit velocity (103.8 mph vs 102.2 mph) and maximum exit velocity (112.2 mph vs. 106.9 mph) than the Padres prospect. Of course, the quality of the pitching they have faced this season is literally a minor league level apart.

Tait needs to continue developing defensively. He has an above-average arm, but other parts of his game behind the plate need refinement. If he can, he may enter 2025 as a preseason top-50 fantasy prospect who projects for 25+ homers a year.

Arjun Nimmala (Blue Jays) has continued to wield a hot bat since returning to Low-A Dunedin on June 27. He has smashed nine home runs over that time and now sits 16th on the Low-A hitters list. Although he has clearly rediscovered the potential 30-home run power that the Blue Jays envisioned when they drafted him in the first round in 2023, he does still have some swing-and-miss in his game, with a 68% contact rate on the season. Even in his hot streak during this second go-around in Low-A, Nimmala has a 32% strikeout rate. He has a better-than-league-average chase rate to go along with his plus barrel rate and plus expected wOBA on contact. There is still a long road ahead for the 18-year old. The fact that he has made adjustments after his initial struggles bodes well for his future.

JJ Wetherholt (Cardinals) has made 19 plate appearances in Low-A Palm Beach, and despite no home runs or stolen bases yet, he does have a 170 wRC+ with more walks than strikeouts. So far, it’s an encouraging debut for the No. 7 pick in the 2024 draft.

Low-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Matt WilkinsonCLE100100
2Jonah TongNYM9195
3Quinn MathewsSTL8695
4Alejandro RosarioTEX8593
5Didier FuentesATL8492
6Jarlin SusanaWSN8192
7Travis SykoraWSN8892
8Santiago SuarezTBR8091
9Grant TaylorCHW7789
10Trevor HarrisonTBR8288
11Eliazar DishmeyMIA7587
12Yujanyer HerreraMIL8484
13Sean LinanLAD8382
14Thomas WhiteMIA7282
15Kohl DrakeTEX8282
16George KlassenLAA8182
17Gary Gill HillTBR8182
18Jace KaminskaCOL7781
19Welinton HerreraCOL7079
20Ovis PortesBOS7079
21Bishop LetsonMIL6979
22Mavis GravesPHI8579
23Jose GonzalezTEX7279
24Adam SerwinowskiCIN6779
25Noble MeyerMIA6878

Braves righty Didier Fuentes struck out 16 while walking just two over nine innings in a pair of starts since the all-star break. I won’t mention the eight earned runs he allowed during that time. Instead, RoboScout is far more interested in the 35% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate over his last five starts.

As we’ve mentioned before, the 19-year-old (he doesn’t turn 20 until next June) has a solid fastball/slider mix. It’s fronted by his super-flat, low-slot 93 mph four-seam fastball that has over six-and-a-half feet of extension. He’ll likely need to develop his split changeup, which he throws 7% of the time, to stick in the rotation. The teenager has added 2 mph to his average slider velocity compared to last year and has seen his fastball max out at 96 mph this year compared to 94.3 in 2023. He has shown he can make significant gains to his arsenal. Fuentes is a fascinating and underrated arm in the Braves organization.

Rays 18-year-old righty Trevor Harrison has struck out 31% of batters over his first 17 innings for Low-A Charleston. That’s the second-highest mark of the 11 pitchers with 12+ innings in Low-A in their age-18 season, behind only Alex Clemmey (Nationals by way of the Guardians) who struck out 33% in 69 innings. Although Harrison does have a 10% walk rate, that is the fourth-lowest rate for the same pitching cohort. With a 94 mph fastball that has touched 98 mph, an 84 mph bullet slider, a changeup with nine mph velocity separation and 10 inches of vertical separation, and even an 88 mph cutter, the former high school teammate of Aidan Miller (Phillies) shows a midrotation starter’s arsenal.

Nationals righty Travis Sykora has climbed into the top seven. Sykora has a 45% strikeout rate over his last 32 innings. That’s the highest rate of punchies by any Low-A pitcher with at least 20 innings. Over that time, the 20-year-old has a sub-1.00 WHIP and a sub-2.00 ERA, along with a scintillating 22% swinging strike rate. His walk rate during that time is hovering right at 10% but even though a double-digit walk rate is a little higher than we would want, the 95 mph fastball from big extension, fronting an 83 mph slider and split changeup that both get over 50% whiffs, is a clear midrotation arsenal. Sykora is a solid top-125 fantasy prospect.

High-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Michael ArroyoSEA100100
2Luke AdamsMIL99100
3Luke KeaschallMIN9396
4Kevin McGonigleDET9596
5Sebastian WalcottTEX9995
6Xavier IsaacTBR9192
7Sal StewartCIN8590
8Lazaro MontesSEA9890
9Josue De PaulaLAD8389
10Carter JensenKCR8688
11Jesus BaezNYM8686
12Max ClarkDET8785
13Alex FreelandLAD7784
14Jhostynxon GarciaBOS7883
15Brayden TaylorTBR8082
16Bryce EldridgeSFG7881
17William BergollaCHW8081
18Henry BolteOAK7680
19Angel GenaoCLE7680
20Mike BoeveMIL7280
21Samuel ZavalaCHW7880
22Cam CollierCIN8180
23Cooper IngleCLE7279
24Jefferson RojasCHC7578
25C.J. KayfusCLE7077

Josue De Paula (Dodgers) has had a reasonably quiet 2024 season. Yet he sits in the top 10 of the High-A list as a teenager with a 125 wRC+, two home runs and four stolen bases over 98 plate appearances. With better than league-average swing decisions, contact and quality of contact—all the more impressive because he will stay a teenager until next May—the only knock against the sweet-swinging lefthander is that his defense may ultimately relegate him to a DH-only profile. Still, with the potential for a 60-hit, 60-power profile, he should be a no-doubt fantasy contributor.

Rockies 3B Kyle Karros hasn’t ranked on the High-A list yet, but he has performed quite well recently. Since June 14, Karros has put up a 180 wRC+ with nine home runs and seven stolen bases. The 2023 fifth-round pick has played a solid third base all season and has a solidly average contact rate, chase rate, and barrel rate, though he is far more effective against fastballs than against secondaries. Note that High-A Spokane boosts homers for righthanded batters by nearly 47%. RoboScout accounts for this already, but make sure you are doing the internal math when looking at the back of his baseball card.

No. 1 pick Travis Bazzana has a 183 wRC+ with a home run and a steal through 17 plate appearances for High-A Lake County. On the face of it, his 41% strikeout rate is puzzling. Keep in mind that he has a 7% swinging strike rate, which is indicative of his extremely passive approach to start his professional debut. It’s something to watch as he accrues a larger sample size.

Kevin McGonigle (Tigers) hit his first High-A home run this week and has maintained a sub-3% strikeout rate over his first 39 plate appearances for West Michigan. With his near-90% contact rate on the season, it is clear that the infielder has one of the better hit tools in the minor leagues. Subsequently, RoboScout projects him for a .280/.360 batting average and on-base percentage in the major leagues with around 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases. He’s a top-15 prospect per RoboScout.

High-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Noah SchultzCHW90100
2Quinn MathewsSTL9299
3Luis PeralesBOS8898
4Alejandro RosarioTEX9297
5Matt WilkinsonCLE10097
6Owen MurphyATL9097
7Jarlin SusanaWSN8897
8Chase DollanderCOL8897
9Zebby MatthewsMIN8392
10Jonah TongNYM9091
11George KlassenPHI8390
12K.C. HuntMIL9088
13Kohl DrakeTEX9288
14Brett WichrowskiMIL8087
15Thomas WhiteMIA8087
16Sean SullivanCOL9387
17Alessandro ErcolaniPIT7485
18Winston SantosTEX7684
19Jaden HammDET8483
20Jedixson PaezBOS9282
21Brandyn GarciaSEA7181
22Owen WildTBR7780
23Austin PetersonCLE7980
24Ethan PeckoHOU7980
25Lazaro EstradaTOR6980

Nationals righty Jarlin Susana has been lights out in his first four starts for High-A Wilmington. Susana has 26 strikeouts to just three walks while going at least five innings in each start. We can’t undersell his improvements: in 56 innings in Low-A, he had a 12% walk rate and in the 20 innings he has pitched in High-A, his walk rate is under 4%! When you average 100 mph with nearly six and a half feet of extension and an 89 mph slider, you barely need to use your changeup—even if it has nearly 18 inches of armside fade.

His 57% groundball rate in High-A only adds to his floor, especially after eliciting the second-highest Low-A mark among pitchers with at least 50 innings. Susana was a popular sleeper in 2023. His lack of command prevented him from meeting that potential and seemed to all but assure his destiny as a reliever. This season, with his vastly improved command—at least recently—he might be changing that narrative. Worst case, he should be a successful major league closer.

Congratulations to Sean Sullivan (Rockies) on his promotion to Double-A Hartford on the heels of his 39% strikeout rate and sub-5% walk rate over his last four starts.

Double-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Emmanuel RodriguezMIN100100
2Agustin RamirezNYY8989
3Luke KeaschallMIN8689
4Moises BallesterosCHC8887
5Roman AnthonyBOS8686
6Carter JensenKCR8685
7Matthew LugoBOS8084
8Ryan CliffordNYM8180
9Cole YoungSEA8180
10Deyvison De Los SantosARI8380
11Hao-Yu LeeDET7979
12Kristian CampbellBOS7379
13Alex FreelandLAD7279
14Edgar QueroCHW7678
15Samuel BasalloBAL8677
16C.J. KayfusCLE7477
17Matt ShawCHC7576
18Carson WilliamsTBR7776
19Henry BolteOAK7576
20Colby ThomasOAK7175
21Dalton RushingLAD6774
22Jacob WilsonOAK6774
23Tyler LocklearSEA6672
24Jimmy CrooksSTL6671
25Nick CimilloPIT6371

Royals C Carter Jensen continues to mash since his Double-A promotion, hitting two homers in his first seven games. We have written about Jensen before and he ranks in the High-A top 10 as well. RoboScout likes his average-to-above average contact rate and chase rate, and his plus barrel rate and 90th percentile exit velocity. The 20-year-old’s 16 steals this season are the biggest surprise. I don’t expect him to steal more than 10 bases in the major leagues, but with an above-average bat and 20-ish home runs, it won’t be necessary in order to be productive in fantasy.

Although he is potentially behind Blake Mitchell (Royals) on the catching depth chart, Jensen is two levels ahead of him, giving him a potential head start on establishing himself in the major leagues before Mitchell creates any potential roster controversy (of the good variety). One thing to note is that Jensen has caught 30% of High-A base runners trying to steal against him this year while Mitchell has only thrown out 13% of would-be base stealers in Low-A. On the other side of the coin, Freddy Fermin has thrown out 56% of stolen base attempts in 2024, good enough for highest in the major leagues. Luckily, RoboScout is not needed to help resolve this catching situation for Kansas City.

Prior to the season, Matt Shaw (Cubs) was an extremely popular name in redraft leagues. After all, we already know about him in dynasty leagues. But eyebrows were first raised when the Cubs made a preseason trade for Michael Busch. Shaw was expected to be a fantasy contributor but has instead remained at Double-A all season. He finished May with an OPS below .750. Over the last six, weeks however, Shaw has been one of the hottest hitters in the minors, let alone in Double-A, and has climbed into the top 20.

Shaw finished June with a .901 OPS and posted a 1.061 OPS in July. Over his last 123 plate appearances, he has eight home runs and stolen eight bases, showing the type of production we expected coming into the season. On the season, the likely third baseman has put up a 77% contact rate, down from the 84% mark he had in his brief 2023, and his max exit velocity still has not attained the 112 mph mark that he achieved in 2023. Still, with another three home runs this week, it’s merely a matter of time before he finds himself in Triple-A Iowa.

Double-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Zebby MatthewsMIN100100
2Noah SchultzCHW98100
3Logan HendersonMIL9894
4Bubba ChandlerPIT9093
5Tink HenceSTL9889
6Braxton AshcraftPIT9187
7Thomas HarringtonPIT9087
8Brandon SproatNYM8985
9Troy MeltonDET8484
10Quinn MathewsSTL8484
11Ben CaspariusLAD8183
12Blade TidwellNYM7982
13Ben ShieldsNYY8582
14Chandler ChamplainKCR9582
15Jacob MisiorowskiMIL7782
16Jackson JobeDET7781
17Caden DanaLAA8580
18Winston SantosTEX7980
19Spencer SchwellenbachATL8480
20Carson PalmquistCOL8379
21Zach PenrodBOS8779
22Kyle McGowinCHC8279
23Shane SmithMIL8578
24Yilber DiazARI8378
25Brandon YoungBAL8978

Brandon Sproat’s Friday night performance was the big story this week. The Mets righty struck out 13 batters, including 11th in a row. The outing jumped him from No. 25 to inside the top 10 of the Double-A list and earned him a promotion to Triple-A Syracuse. On the season, the 23-year-old righthander has put his 96 mph four-seam fastball, 86 mph slider, and changeup to good use, leading to a sub-1.00 WHIP and sub-3.00 on all ERA indicators. Sproat, along with Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Blade Tidwell, has the Mets future rotation sitting in a nice spot for the next five years.

Drue Hackenberg (Braves) was a popular add in dynasty leagues last week. That makes a lot of sense when you realize he has struck out 22 batters and only walked one over his last 12 innings. If you add his previous three starts to those two, yes he has a 35% strikeout rate, but he also has an 11% walk rate. Under the hood, Hackenberg primarily throws his curveball, which has a foot of sweep and generates over 40% whiffs, followed by two fastballs that sit 92 to 94 mph and a changeup. Interestingly, Hackenberg elicited a 98th percentile 61% groundball rate in 59.1 High-A innings. In 29 Double-A innings, though, he has a 34% groundball rate. In our Top 30 write-up we compared him to Bryce Elder with a better fastball. RoboScout agrees and projects him as a back-of-the-rotation starter.

It’s worth noting that Jackson Jobe (Tigers) last year had a walk rate under 3% over 68 innings. This year in Double-A, he has a 14.5% walk rate over 42 innings. The WHIP is still only 1.11 on account of the hellacious stuff. Interestingly, although he increased his fastball velocity (97.1 mph compared to 96.5 in 2023) and has topped out at 100 mph compared to 98 last year, his slider now averages 82 mph compared to 85 mph in 2023. He has added four inches of sweep (17 vs. 13 in 2023). The trade-off in sweep compared to velocity is essentially even from a stuff perspective, but it’s puzzling nonetheless. Jobe’s strikeout and walk rates are eerily similar to Brewers RHP Jacob Misiorowski. Will we start to see more bullpen risk concerns for Jobe?

Triple-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1James WoodWSN100100
2Jackson HollidayBAL9392
3Coby MayoBAL8891
4Kyle ManzardoCLE8388
5Adrian Del CastilloARI7986
6Miguel VargasCHW7886
7Jose FerminSTL7584
8Andy PagesLAD7482
9Chase MeidrothBOS7481
10Elehuris MonteroCOL7381
11Jacob WilsonOAK7078
12Dillon DinglerDET6978
13Shay WhitcombHOU7677
14Angel MartinezCLE7576
15Moises BallesterosCHC7476
16Agustin RamirezMIA7376
17Deyvison De Los SantosMIA8276
18Javier SanojaMIA7575
19Matthew LugoLAA6875
20Henry DavisPIT7274
21Joey LoperfidoHOU6573
22Niko KavadasLAA6373
23Jonatan ClaseTOR6973
24Jerar EncarnacionSFG6672
25Edgar QueroCHW6972

Congratulations to Dillon Dingler (Tigers) for his major league callup one day after appearing in these pages. Of course, two Orioles were also summoned to the big leagues: Jackson Holliday for the second time and Coby Mayo.

Giants outfielder Jerar Encarnacion is another interesting callup. He has 10 homers in his last 146 plate appearances dating back to June 14. The 26-year old has always had above-average bat speed, and has a 90th percentile exit velocity above 108 mph. In 2023, his contact rate was 58%, far below league average and worse than the 66% rate he had in 2022. In 2024, though, his contact rate is essentially league-average for Triple-A. When paired with his xwOBAcon that is essentially equivalent to Deyvison De Los Santos (Marlins via the Diamondbacks) and an OPS that is essentially the same as James Wood (Nationals). It’s quite possible that Encarnacion might be a source of power in redraft leagues this year.

Triple-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Paul SkenesPIT100100
2Christian ScottNYM9191
3Zebby MatthewsMIN8788
4David FestaMIN8980
5Will WarrenNYY8080
6Chayce McDermottBAL8179
7Tylor MegillNYM8178
8Jack LeiterTEX7577
9Carson SpiersCIN7677
10Tobias MyersMIL7476
11Chad PatrickMIL7775
12Louie VarlandMIN7975
13Yilber DiazARI7974
14Cade PovichBAL8574
15Elieser HernandezLAD7474
16Braxton AshcraftPIT7674
17Robert GasserMIL7173
18Blake SnellSFG7472
19AJ Smith-ShawverATL7472
20Alek ManoahTOR7672
21Slade CecconiARI7871
22Quinn PriesterPIT8471
23Cristian MenaARI8071
24Reid DetmersLAA8570
25Matt ManningDET6870

Congratulations to Will Warren (Yankees) for earning his major league debut after we spoke about him last week.

Now that Zebby Matthews (Twins) has accrued 14 innings in Triple-A, he finds himself leapfrogging organizational mate David Festa (Twins) and sitting third on the list. He also hasn’t walked anyone in Triple-A yet.

Happy bidding!

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On Aug. 4, 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-aug-4-2024/feed/ 0
Fantasy Podcast: RoboScout Names To Target At Your Trade Deadline https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-roboscout-names-to-target-at-your-trade-deadline/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-roboscout-names-to-target-at-your-trade-deadline/#respond Tue, 30 Jul 2024 15:54:20 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1464900 With trade baseball deadlines (both real & fantasy) looming, Geoff Pontes & Dylan White discuss MLB trades and players who may be dealt.

The post Fantasy Podcast: RoboScout Names To Target At Your Trade Deadline appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
With the real trade deadline upon us and the fantasy trade deadline breathing down our necks, hosts Dylan White and Geoff Pontes return with a brand new episode of the Fantasy Baseball Podcast to discuss their favorite deals so far and break down fantasy assets that could on the move with the help of a little robotic scouting.

RobotScout says: “Beep bop boop!”

Roughly translated, this means “Let’s dive in!”

  • Intro 0:00 to 3:30
  • Favorite trades of the deadline so far 3:30 to 7:00
  • Mason Miller 7:00 – 10:00
  • Potential Players Moving At the Deadline 10:00 – 13:00
  • Franklin Arias 13:00 – 18:00
  • Eduardo Beltre 18:00 – 23:30
  • Leo De Vries 23:30 – 31:00
  • Will Warren 31:00 – 34:00
  • Logan Henderson 34:00 – 37:00
  • Javier Sanoja 37:00 – 42:00

Powered by RedCircle

Want more podcasts like this one? Subscribe below!

Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Player FM

The post Fantasy Podcast: RoboScout Names To Target At Your Trade Deadline appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-roboscout-names-to-target-at-your-trade-deadline/feed/ 0
RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On July 28, 2024 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-july-28-2024/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-july-28-2024/#respond Sun, 28 Jul 2024 16:33:45 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1461411 RoboScout's latest prospect rankings are here. Will we see some of these fantasy standouts dealt prior to the trade deadline?

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On July 28, 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
The Complex League regular season is over and Baseball America’s Josh Norris has you covered for the playoffs. With the rookie-level season ending earlier this year, it will be interesting to see how prep draftees are handled. Will teams aggressively assign them to Low-A, or hold them out until 2025? Will Complex League hitters earn promotions earlier than normal? There are a lot of potential dominoes to fall over the next few weeks.

As always, RoboScout will be watching it all for you.

It’s Trade Deadline weekend so don’t be surprised to see a lot of the names in these lists exchange hands. We’ll no doubt get into all the fallout in subsequent podcasts and articles so we’ll keep this week’s article tight.

Stats and lists through Friday’s games.

As a reminder, the RoboScore is the value (0 to 100) assigned per level by RoboScout based on 2024 statistical performance and projecting fantasy value (without considering defensive ability or position). The RoboCast number is the RoboScore but with Statcast blended in and then transformed to the 0 to 100 scale.

Dominican Summer League Hitters (min 30 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Rainiel RodriguezSTL100100
2Eduardo BeltreMIN9498
3Jesus MadeMIL9196
4Emil MoralesLAD9396
5Jose AndersonMIL9292
6Edward FlorentinoPIT8491
7Luis PenaMIL8489
8Yolfran CastilloTEX7987
9Elvin GarciaBAL7685
10Juneiker CaceresCLE8884
11Stiven MartinezBAL8183
12Juan OrtunoMIL7883
13Estivel MorilloCLE8482
14Jaset MartinezCIN7181
15Jirvin MorilloCIN7481
16Adriander MejiaBAL6478
17Cesar LugoCHC6778
18Jesus AlexanderSFG6577
19Jordan SanchezBAL6777
20Justin GonzalesBOS7177

 

Paulino Santana (Rangers) won the DSL All-Star Game MVP last week. This should come as no surprise to readers, as Ben Badler long identified him as one of the prized January international signees. RoboScout hasn’t been too enamored with the 17-year-old’s overall results this season, however, because of an uninspiring lack of in-game power so far. With no home runs and a slugging percentage below .350—and a maximum exit velocity just over 102 mph—Santana seems to be focusing on a contact-oriented approach and excellent swing decisions. With plus speed and solid defense, Santana has other ways to positively impact a game while he works on increasing his strength.

After making it into the top 5 last week, catcher Rainiel Rodriguez (Cardinals) finds himself at the top of the table after hitting another two bombs last week, bringing his season total to nine to lead the league.

Complex League Hitters (min 50 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Franklin AriasBOS100100
2Robert CalazCOL10098
3Yeremi CabreraTEX9797
4Eric BitontiMIL9495
5Pablo GuerreroTEX9491
6Eduardo TaitPHI9889
7Eduardo QuinteroLAD8487
8Yoeilin CespedesBOS8385
9Javier MogollonCHW8582
10Starlyn CabaPHI7882
11Welbyn FranciscaCLE8481
12Engelth UrenaNYY7481
13Edgleen PerezNYY7380
14Yolfran CastilloTEX7680
15Brailer GuerreroTBR7579
16Daiverson GutierrezNYM7879
17Felnin CelestenSEA7579
18Braylin MorelTEX8478
19Dameury PenaMIN7777
20Miguel RodriguezBAL7377
21Aroon EscobarPHI6976
22Jhonny SeverinoPIT7376
23Yasser MercedesMIN7076
24Jeremy RodriguezNYM8575
25Luis MerejoCLE7275

Recently promoted from the DSL, Rangers SS Yolfran Castillo cracks the top 20 now that he qualifies for the list. Ben Badler raved about the Venezuelan’s contact skills earlier this season. The 17-year-old was quickly brought stateside and has produced a wRC+ just below league average, which is impressive considering his age. There’s not much power—he currently sports a .017 ISO at the Complex—but he does have an xwOBAcon that was better than league average and actually only .020 lower than Brewers DSL breakout Luis Pena. He’s probably too green to be moved to full-season ball after the ACL Rangers’ current postseason run ends, but even still, the Rangers have to be happy with what they saw from their $600,000 signing. Castillo should be rostered in leagues with 400 prospects or more.

Mets C Daiverson Gutierrez is another player who is finishing stateside after starting in the DSL. The 18-year-old signed with New York for nearly $2 million in 2023 and now enters the top 20 after putting up a 170 wRC+ with two home runs over 54 plate appearances. Yet another talented Venezuelan catching signing, scouts believe Gutierrez can develop into above-average game power. His 108 mph max exit velocity seems to support that. He’s not there yet, but he’s showing above-average swing decisions and contact for his age and level, striking out at only a 7% clip at the Complex. As you know, there are a lot of great catching prospects in the minor leagues right now. He’s not there now, but Gutierrez is off to a solid start.

Complex League Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Trevor HarrisonTBR95100
2Yordy HerreraSTL100100
3Christian ZazuetaLAD8993
4Samuel SanchezLAD9493
5Sean LinanLAD9292
6Ovis PortesBOS8692
7Hayden RobinsonMIL9591
8Joseph YabbourNYM8491
9Keyner BenitezMIA10091
10Jefferson JeanOAK8991
11Juan ValeraBOS8789
12Jacob BresnahanCLE9489
13Rafael GonzalezHOU8489
14Adrian HerreraCIN8488
15Johan SimonTOR8188
16Jogly GarciaCLE8488
17Alix HernandezSFG8688
18Sandy OzunaCOL9286
19Luis MorellisCIN8985
20Jesus CarreraHOU8685
21Hyun-Seok JangLAD8385
22Keythel KeyLAA8084
23Zander MuethPIT7884
24Jordarlin MendozaNYY7884
25Nelfy YnfanteSTL9184

The Guardians finally promoted LHP Jacob Bresnahan to Low-A Lynchburg after he registered a 34% strikeout rate, a 1.04 WHIP and 2.54 ERA over 46 innings. The 19-year-old doesn’t have overpowering stuff, nor does it come from a particularly deceptive slot. Bresnahan has a 92 mph four-seam fastball, 83 mph slider and a changeup that gets over 40% whiffs. But the Guardians are one of baseball’s best pitching development organizations and the southpaw has age on his side, just turning 19 a month ago. Look for his velocity to likely end up in the mid 90s.

Angels righty Keythel Key brings his intriguing arsenal to the top 25 for the first time this year. The 20-year-old Venezuelan has a 29% strikeout rate and a 48% groundball rate—both well above-average marks for the level—but the pitch metrics really catch RoboScout’s eye. Key averages 95 mph on his fastball and touches 99 with a high-spin breaking ball that gets about a foot of sweep, plus a developing changeup. His interesting stuff could potentially work in the back of a rotation with further development. He’s an interesting name to watchlist.

Low-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Leodalis De VriesSDP100100
2Colt EmersonSEA8291
3Michael ArroyoSEA8391
4Aidan SmithSEA8088
5Kevin McGonigleDET7887
6Lazaro MontesSEA8887
7Blake MitchellKCR7586
8Axiel PlazPIT8286
9Walker JenkinsMIN7184
10Jonny FarmeloSEA7182
11Jaison ChourioCLE7282
12Demetrio CrisantesARI6781
13Josue De PaulaLAD6681
14Jeral PerezLAD6779
15Zyhir HopeLAD6077
16Ralphy VelazquezCLE6877
17Jesus BaezNYM6976
18Alfredo DunoCIN6775
19Max ClarkDET6974
20Logan WagnerLAD5874
21Yophery RodriguezMIL7373
22Arjun NimmalaTOR6773
23Rosman VerdugoSDP6572
24Cooper PrattMIL6372
25Angel GenaoCLE5972

Maintaining his absolutely breakneck pace, Leodalis De Vries (Padres) remains No. 1 after knocking three more home runs and stealing another base last week. Again, we can’t overstate what he’s doing as the youngest hitter in full-season ball. De Vries’ .901 OPS since June 3 would be the highest season mark by a 17-year old in Low-A since 2006 with a minimum of 100 plate appearances. His full-season 119 wRC+ is just behind the 122 wRC+ that org-mate Ethan Salas put up at the same age last year to much fanfare. It’s still a short sample, but RoboScout has seen enough: De Vries is a top-10 fantasy prospect.

Speaking of RoboScout favorites, Franklin Arias (Red Sox) has already hit two home runs with a preposterous 379 wRC+ in his first three games for Low-A Salem including seven RBIs. The 18-year old shortstop is on one of the more torrid streaks observed in the minors this year and is a top 25 fantasy prospect per RoboScout, especially when you consider that his 181 wRC+ in the Complex League is the highest since 2006 among 18-year-olds with at least 200 plate appearances. Just for context, Junior Caminero (Rays) had a 147 wRC+ in 2022 over 154 plate appearances before being promoted to Low-A. Arias checks all the boxes this year: Power, speed and good shortstop defense.

Low-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Matt WilkinsonCLE100100
2Jonah TongNYM9195
3Quinn MathewsSTL8594
4Alejandro RosarioTEX8493
5Jarlin SusanaWSN8092
6Santiago SuarezTBR7990
7Didier FuentesATL8190
8Grant TaylorCHW7789
9George KlassenPHI7888
10Travis SykoraWSN8287
11Eliazar DishmeyMIA7386
12Yujanyer HerreraMIL8385
13Sean LinanLAD8484
14Kohl DrakeTEX8282
15Thomas WhiteMIA7282
16Ovis PortesBOS7081
17Mavis GravesPHI8580
18Welinton HerreraCOL6979
19Gary Gill HillTBR7879
20Jace KaminskaCOL7479
21Isaiah LoweSDP6779
22Noble MeyerMIA6778
23Jackson NezuhHOU6677
24Jose GonzalezTEX7077
25Alimber SantaHOU6677

It took 65 innings of a 1.20 WHIP, a 3.15 ERA and a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 27%, but 20-year old LHP Mavis Graves (Phillies) finally gets some ink spilt in these pages. Although he’s been deserving for some time, Graves was overshadowed in Clearwater by the louder stuff of teammate George Klassen—the newest member of the Los Angeles Angels.

Still, the 2022 sixth-rounder—with a name more like a Southern Gothic singer/songwriter than southpaw—throws a 91 mph four-seamer from a high slot and big extension. Graves also has a slider and changeup that both get over 50% whiffs. The stuff is solid enough, even if it isn’t overwhelming from a modern pitch design standpoint, and his surface stats portend a peak projection in the same cluster as Grant Taylor (White Sox), Kohl Drake (Rangers) and Yujanyer Herrera (Rockies by way of the Brewers). Graves is probably already rostered in your leagues given his solid results. If he isn’t, the big 6-foot-6 lefthander is definitely viable in leagues that roster 300 prospects.

High-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Michael ArroyoSEA97100
2Luke KeaschallMIN9398
3Luke AdamsMIL9297
4Sebastian WalcottTEX9995
5Lazaro MontesSEA10095
6Sal StewartCIN8592
7Xavier IsaacTBR9092
8Carter JensenKCR8691
9Josue De PaulaLAD8088
10Alex FreelandLAD7786
11Samuel ZavalaCHW8286
12Brayden TaylorTBR8084
13Mike BoeveMIL7282
14William BergollaPHI8182
15Henry BolteOAK7682
16Cooper IngleCLE7382
17Cutter CoffeyBOS7781
18C.J. KayfusCLE7080
19Jhostynxon GarciaBOS7079
20Charles McAdooPIT7079
21Yohendrick PinangoCHC7279
22Ricardo OlivarMIN6978
23Bryce EldridgeSFG7177
24Jefferson RojasCHC7177
25Kristian CampbellBOS6577

Josue De Paula (Dodgers) qualifies for the High-A list for the first time this season and immediately slots into the top 10 with a 153 wRC+, two home runs and four stolen bases over 71 plate appearances. With better than league average swing decisions, contact and quality of contact—all the more impressive because he will be a teenager until next May—the only knock against the sweet-swinging left hander is the fact that his defense may ultimately relegate him to a DH-only profile. Still, with the potential for a 60-hit, 60-power profile, he should be a no-doubt fantasy contributor.

High-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Noah SchultzCHW89100
2Quinn MathewsSTL9298
3Matt WilkinsonCLE10098
4Luis PeralesBOS8798
5Owen MurphyATL9097
6Chase DollanderCOL8797
7Alejandro RosarioTEX8995
8Zebby MatthewsMIN8292
9George KlassenPHI8088
10Jonah TongNYM8788
11K.C. HuntMIL8988
12Kohl DrakeTEX9087
13Thomas WhiteMIA7885
14Alessandro ErcolaniPIT7485
15Sean SullivanCOL8984
16Winston SantosTEX7583
17Jedixson PaezBOS9283
18Jaden HammDET8483
19Moises ChaceBAL7081
20Brandyn GarciaSEA7081
21Austin PetersonCLE7880
22Edgar PortesBAL6979
23Lazaro EstradaTOR6879
24Ethan PeckoHOU7879
25Nolan McLeanNYM6879

Now that he qualifies for the list, Alejandro Rosario (Rangers) appears as the seventh pitcher in High-A with a 38% strikeout rate over 18.2 innings. The breakout righthander comes at hitters with a flat 97 mph four-seam fastball while his slider and changeup both get over 45% whiffs. RoboScout sees him as a midrotation starter with a potential for more. 

Double-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Emmanuel RodriguezMIN100100
2Agustin RamirezNYY8990
3Luke KeaschallMIN8689
4Moises BallesterosCHC8887
5Matthew LugoBOS8084
6Ryan CliffordNYM8484
7Cole YoungSEA8282
8Roman AnthonyBOS7880
9Deyvison De Los SantosARI8280
10Kristian CampbellBOS7379
11Carson WilliamsTBR7979
12Hao-Yu LeeDET7879
13Alex FreelandLAD7278
14Edgar QueroCHW7678
15C.J. KayfusCLE7378
16Henry BolteOAK7576
17Colby ThomasOAK7074
18Jacob WilsonOAK6774
19Samuel BasalloBAL8374
20Charles McAdooPIT6974
21Marcelo MayerBOS7073
22Tyler LocklearSEA6673
23Harry FordSEA7071
24Dalton RushingLAD6271
25Alejandro OsunaTEX6771

Kristian Campbell (Red Sox) continues his ascent and enters the High-A top 10. His 206 wRC+ at Double-A is the highest among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances. Jacob Wilson (Athletics) had a 224 wRC+ but that was only over 93 plate appearances. As a result, Campbell has a fantasy peak projection that is not too dissimilar from Emmanuel Rodriguez (Twins). With excellent swing decisions, contact quality and better-than-average contact, Campbell is an easy top-50 fantasy prospect. With his underlying metrics, he feels like he is on the verge of going on a home run tear at any moment.

Last year, RoboScout was a fan of Javier Vaz (Royals) on account of his gifted bat-to-ball skills Lack of power was the main concern. His ISO still remains below .130 in 2024 and he only has six home runs in 338 plate appearances at Double-A. Interestingly, though, most of his power outburst has come in the last six weeks.

Since June 3, over 123 plate appearances Vaz has hit five of his six home runs to go along eight steals. That 146 wRC+ during this time, where his swinging strike rate has been lower than 4%, suggests a peak more akin to a 20/20 bat than a 12/12 bat. Keep a close eye on this one, as his defense, contact and speed gives him a high floor. If he is even a 15-home run bat, then he is a likely Top 100 fantasy prospect. Note though that neither his 90th percentile exit velocity, maximum exit velocity, xwOBAcon, or barrel rate has taken any meaningful step forward from his 2023 marks. This might just be a hot streak.

Double-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Zebby MatthewsMIN100100
2Noah SchultzCHW98100
3Logan HendersonMIL9792
4Bubba ChandlerPIT8789
5Braxton AshcraftPIT9087
6Thomas HarringtonPIT9086
7Tink HenceSTL9486
8Jackson JobeDET8285
9Ben ShieldsNYY8784
10Peter Van LoonBAL8583
11Jacob MisiorowskiMIL7983
12Ben CaspariusLAD8082
13Chandler ChamplainKCR9582
14Blade TidwellNYM7981
15Quinn MathewsSTL8281
16Caden DanaLAA8479
17Carson PalmquistCOL8379
18Austin PetersonCLE8579
19Troy MeltonDET7879
20Zach PenrodBOS8779
21Kyle McGowinCHC8278
22Andrew MorrisMIN8678
23Yilber DiazARI8378
24Brandon YoungBAL8978
25Brandon SproatNYM8077

Brewers righthander Logan Henderson continues to be the biggest surprise on the Double-A rankings. Henderson is now up to third place, ahead of the Pittsburgh trio of Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington. Although he has only thrown 34 innings this season, he has generated a 29.1% strikeout-minus-walk rate. That’s good enough for the fourth-highest mark in Double-A among starting pitchers who have thrown a minimum of 20 innings. On June 30, I described his 2024 arsenal—an ultra-flat 93 mph four-seamer, a changeup that had a called or swinging strike rate of 47% and an 84 mph bullet slider—and he has since utilized it to generate 25 strikeouts and a paltry three walks in 18 innings. RoboScout considers him extremely underrated.

Caden Dana (Angels) is a Top 100 Prospect and moved up six spots to himself inside the Double-A top 20. In his two Double-A starts since appearing in the Futures Game, Dana has thrown a complete game and struck out 18 while only walking one over a total of 14 innings. A physical righthander with a predominantly four-pitch mix, Dana pitch regularly in the Angels’ rotation starting in 2025.

Triple-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1James WoodWSN100100
2Jackson HollidayBAL9594
3Coby MayoBAL8892
4Miguel VargasLAD7986
5Kyle ManzardoCLE7985
6Jose FerminSTL7685
7Andy PagesLAD7482
8Adrian Del CastilloARI7281
9Agustin RamirezNYY7579
10Jacob WilsonOAK7078
11Moises BallesterosCHC7577
12Angel MartinezCLE7576
13Niko KavadasBOS6676
14Dillon DinglerDET6976
15Jonatan ClaseSEA7275
16Matthew LugoBOS6774
17Jordan BeckCOL6575
18Shay WhitcombHOU7274
19Luis MatosSFG6574
20Joey LoperfidoHOU6574
21Chase MeidrothBOS6573
22Jace JungDET7073
23Deyvison De Los SantosARI7872
24Jhonkensy NoelCLE7972
25Orelvis MartinezTOR7172

With five home runs in his last 19 plate appearances, there is no doubt that Dillon Dingler (Tigers) should make this upcoming week’s Hot Sheet. On the season the 25-year-old catcher now has 17 home runs and a wRC+ of 136 and enters top 15 after never previously gracing the list. That projects to be an above-average hitter with 20+ home runs in the major leagues, yet funnily enough he only ranks as the No. 4 catcher in Triple-A with those peak projections. Dingler is still behind Adrian Del Castillo (Diamondbacks), Agustin Ramirez (Marlins by way of Yankees) and Moises Ballesteros (Cubs). What I’m getting at is that the catching position will be solid in fantasy for the next decade.

Another former RoboScout friend, Buddy Kennedy—now of the Phillies—has hit three doubles and two home runs over his last four games and has a 190 wRC+ over his last 165 plate appearances. He has always been a hit-over-power minor leaguer, but the Phillies appear to have unlocked something since acquiring him from the Tigers. Kennedy’s .295 ISO with Triple-A Lehigh Valley is the highest of his minor league career at any level. It’s even higher than his 17-homer season in Double-A in 2021. Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott block Kennedy on the Phillies’ depth chart, but RoboScout is happy to see that the 25-year-old rejuvenated since joining the Phillies organization.

Triple-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Paul SkenesPIT100100
2Christian ScottNYM9192
3David FestaMIN8881
4Will WarrenNYY7981
5Jack LeiterTEX7780
6Tylor MegillNYM8079
7Chayce McDermottBAL7777
8Carson SpiersCIN7577
9Tobias MyersMIL7377
10Yilber DiazARI7976
11Cade PovichBAL8475
12Chad PatrickMIL7575
13Elieser HernandezLAD7375
14Braxton AshcraftPIT7575
15Louie VarlandMIN7573
16Alek ManoahTOR7573
17Quinn PriesterPIT8372
18Slade CecconiARI7772
19Cristian MenaARI7972
20AJ Smith-ShawverATL7071
21Albert SuarezBAL7471
22Matt ManningDET6770
23Reid DetmersLAA8370
24Osvaldo BidoOAK7068
25Josh WinckowskiBOS6868

We mentioned a few weeks ago that Will Warren (Yankees) was doing his best to turn his season around after a forgettable early going. And now the 25-year-old has pushed himself into the top five. Although the 1.40 WHIP and 6.11 ERA doesn’t look particularly compelling, his xFIP is actually 3.93 with a 27% strikeout rate and his high ranking is quite representative of the fact that Triple-A pitching after Paul Skenes (Pirates) and Christian Scott (Mets) isn’t particularly intimidating, contributing to the perception that the jump for Triple-A hitters to the major leagues seems higher than ever.

Still, Warren’s 25% strikeout-minus-walk rate since June 3 is the fourth-highest by a starting pitcher. Considering he has averaged over five innings per start during that time, it’s quite probable the Yankees will call him up this season. Expect him to make a difference in redraft leagues, where he’s one of the last non-injury pitchers to have that potential.

Happy bidding!

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On July 28, 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-july-28-2024/feed/ 0
Fantasy Podcast: Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon & An Early First-Year Player Draft Breakdown https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-travis-bazzana-charlie-condon-an-early-first-year-player-draft-breakdown/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-travis-bazzana-charlie-condon-an-early-first-year-player-draft-breakdown/#respond Tue, 23 Jul 2024 11:45:34 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1457837 Geoff Pontes & Dylan White hop back on the mic for a new fantasy baseball podcast breaking down the most exciting first-year players.

The post Fantasy Podcast: Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon & An Early First-Year Player Draft Breakdown appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
After a few weeks away, Geoff Pontes and Dylan White are back with our first fantasy baseball podcast of the second half. We start off with a breakdown of two former Cy Young winners returning to the field in Clayton Kershaw and Robbie Ray before discussing the Ozzie Albies injury fallout and Nacho Alvarez’s call-up.

In the second half of the show, we talk big-time first year players like Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon, Chase Burns and JJ Wetherholt as we preview the potential first ten picks in this year’s FYPD rankings.

That’s over a full hour of dynasty talk this week, folks. Enjoy!

Powered by RedCircle

Want more podcasts like this one? Subscribe below!

Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Player FM

The post Fantasy Podcast: Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon & An Early First-Year Player Draft Breakdown appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-travis-bazzana-charlie-condon-an-early-first-year-player-draft-breakdown/feed/ 0
RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On July 21, 2024  https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-july-21-2024/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-july-21-2024/#respond Sun, 21 Jul 2024 20:09:57 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1456012 RoboScout returns with the top players at each level, and it's a very encouraging update for the Red Sox farm system.

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On July 21, 2024  appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
Phew, what a week! Although for many fans, it was a true “break” from meaningful baseball, for the Baseball America team, it was one of the busiest weeks of the year with the Futures Game, Prospect Pad and, of course, the MLB Draft

There were still minor league games all week. RoboScout watched them all—and has crunched some more stuff, Statcast, and projection numbers for you.

There has been some movement in the Dominican Summer League rankings–this makes sense as the sample size is still significantly smaller than in the other leagues and Statcast data is still stabilizing–but the upper levels have been reasonably consistent. Once the draftees start debuting, expect some interesting movement–especially in Low-A and High-A. Can’t wait!

As a reminder, the RoboScore is the value (0 to 100) assigned per level by RoboScout based on 2024 statistical performance and projecting fantasy value (without considering defensive position or ability). The RoboCast number is the RoboScore but with statcast blended in and then transformed to the 0 to 100 scale.

Dominican Summer League Hitters (min 30 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Emil MoralesLAD100100
2Edward FlorentinoPIT9598
3Jesus MadeMIL9498
4Jose AndersonMIL9996
5Rainiel RodriguezSTL9495
6Luis PenaMIL9092
7Eduardo BeltreMIN8692
8Yolfran CastilloTEX8388
9Juan OrtunoMIL8587
10Elvin GarciaBAL7986
11Jaset MartinezCIN7785
12Estivel MorilloCLE8985
13Adriander MejiaBAL7585
14Juneiker CaceresCLE8884
15Jirvin MorilloCIN7884
16Stiven MartinezBAL8283
17Rafael FloresTOR6880
18Justin GonzalesBOS7680
19Jesus AlexanderSFG6879
20Gabriel RodriguezCLE7578

 

Emil Morales (Dodgers) is now the top-ranked DSL hitter with a 178 wRC+ along with seven homers and seven steals through 127 plate appearances. His contact rate is still below average, but it’s outweighed by his contact quality, which is pretty much the best in the league. He has the highest barrel rate of any DSL hitter with at least 70 plate appearances, ranking just ahead of Eduardo Beltre (Twins). Morales has the eighth-highest expected wOBA on contact.

Cardinals catcher Rainiel Rodriguez has one of the higher xWOBAcons. The DSL all-star ranks fifth on RoboScout’s list. The 17-year old Dominican backstop also has seven home runs, showing his plus game power. Rodriguez’s maximum exit velocity of 108 mph is already higher than max exit velos for well-regarded players such as C.J. Kayfus (Guardians), Michael Arroyo (Mariners), and Colt Emerson (Mariners). The raw power is already present albeit against inferior pitching. Rodriguez does show a bit more chase than league average but has an average contact rate so far in his 107 plate appearances. His defense lags behind the bat, but he does have a strong arm.

Considering their place on the defensive spectrum, Morales, Jesus Made (Brewers), Luis Pena (Brewers), and Eduardo Beltre (Twins) look like the class of the DSL. Consider all four top 200 fantasy prospects.

 

Complex League Hitters (min 60 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Franklin AriasBOS98100
2Yeremi CabreraTEX9999
3Robert CalazCOL10099
4Eric BitontiMIL9093
5Eduardo TaitPHI9891
6Pablo GuerreroTEX8888
7Eduardo QuinteroLAD8287
8Yoeilin CespedesBOS8386
9Starlyn CabaPHI8185
10Javier MogollonCHW8684
11Edgleen PerezNYY7382
12Engelth UrenaNYY7381
13Brailer GuerreroTBR7580
14Welbyn FranciscaCLE8180
15Felnin CelestenSEA7479
16Braylin MorelTEX8479
17Miguel RodriguezBAL7378
18Dameury PenaMIN7778
19Aroon EscobarPHI6977
20Jhonny SeverinoPIT7377
21Yasser MercedesMIN7077
22Luis MerejoCLE7176
23Jeremy RodriguezNYM8375
24Carlos TavaresWSN6973
25Demetrio CrisantesARI6273

With a huge week where he smashed two home runs and stole nine(!) bases, Franklin Arias (Red Sox) now finds himself at the top of the Complex League Hitters list. RoboScout has liked Arias for a while–without even knowing that he is playing above-average defense at shortstop–because also under the hood, he is making discriminate swing decisions, making contact at a near 80% rate, and making solid quality of contact with an xwOBAcon higher even than that of org mate Roman Anthony (Red Sox). He’s one of my favorite breakouts this year and a Top 75 fantasy prospect with 20/20 potential and good bat-to-ball skills.

Converted Yankees catcher Engelth Urena is flying up the charts on account of his 185 wRC+ since June 3. An outfielder earlier in his career, Urena’s defense hasn’t quite caught up to the bat, although he lost significant development time from a broken hand and a knee injury the past two years. In 2024, however, the 19-year old Dominican has shown plus swing decisions and a plus contact rate all season with his quality of contact steadily improving as the season has worn on, showing 25+ home run power. Although the bat is solid, his fantasy value will likely hinge on whether he can stick at catcher because the profile is not quite in the vicinity of other first base or left field prospects.

Braves shortstop John Gil is another interesting name outside the top 25. He is showing an excellent blend of power and speed while playing  solid defense. Gil has really turned it on over the last six weeks, hitting all of three of his home runs and stealing 18 of his 26 bases over his last 122 plate appearances. Although the 18-year old is showing elite swing decisions, with average to above-average contact, the quality of contact lags the hit tool even though he has raised his 90th percentile exit velocity to 102.5 mph, 3 mph higher than in 2023. He’s an exciting but raw fantasy prospect who should be seeing full-season ball shortly. Put him on your watch list.

Complex League Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Yordy HerreraSTL100100
2Trevor HarrisonTBR9398
3Christian ZazuetaLAD8791
4Samuel SanchezLAD9291
5Sean LinanLAD9090
6Ovis PortesBOS8490
7Hayden RobinsonMIL9389
8Joseph YabbourNYM8289
9Keyner BenitezMIA9889
10Jefferson JeanOAK8688
11Juan ValeraBOS8587
12Jacob BresnahanCLE9287
13Johan SimonTOR7986
14Jogly GarciaCLE8286
15Alix HernandezSFG8486
16Adrian HerreraCIN8185
17Jesus CarreraHOU8584
18Sandy OzunaCOL8984
19Zander MuethPIT7783
20Rafael GonzalezHOU7983
21Nelfy YnfanteSTL9082
22Jordarlin MendozaNYY7682
23Luis ReyesCHW8482
24Luis MorellisCIN8582
25Enniel CortezMIL8581

Jefferson Jean (Athletics) enters the top 10 this week with a 41% strikeout rate—the second-highest mark for anyone averaging more than two innings per appearance. The bad news is that it comes with a 16.7% walk rate so he obviously needs to work on the control. The arsenal though is quite solid as the 19-year old righthander has a 95-97 mph fastball with over a foot of armside run, an 83 mph slider with two-plane break, and a show-me changeup that he needs to work on. If he can harness the command, he can jump up rankings.

Low-A Hitters (min 60 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Leodalis De VriesSDP100100
2Michael ArroyoSEA9298
3Axiel PlazPIT9797
4Colt EmersonSEA8795
5Aidan SmithSEA8995
6Lazaro MontesSEA9894
7Blake MitchellKCR8493
8Kevin McGonigleDET8390
9Jonny FarmeloSEA7888
10Demetrio CrisantesARI7587
11Josue De PaulaLAD7386
12Jeral PerezLAD7585
13Ralphy VelazquezCLE7783
14Jaison ChourioCLE7483
15Walker JenkinsMIN7082
16Zyhir HopeLAD6781
17Jesus BaezNYM7681
18Alfredo DunoCIN7481
19George WolkowCHW8180
20Rosman VerdugoSDP7378
21Arjun NimmalaTOR7478
22Logan WagnerLAD6378
23Yophery RodriguezMIL7877
24Angel GenaoCLE6576
25Bryce EldridgeSFG6676

We have a new top hitter in Low-A. Preseason favorite Leodalis De Vries (Padres) has been on a tear with six home runs, eight stolen bases and a 120 wRC+ since June 3 as the youngest hitter in the league. De Vries has a xwOBAcon over .400 with league-average contact and chase rates. No wonder RoboScout is infatuated.

If you’re interested in power, look no further than White Sox outfielder George Wolkow. He has eight home runs since his promotion to full-season ball on June 4. The 6-foot-7 behemoth generates otherworldly power at 18 years old, evidenced by the 43.5% strikeout rate, but it comes at a cost. Under the hood, it might be even worse than the surface stats, as he has a sub-50% contact rate and a chase rate that is a standard deviation worse than league average. Right now, the immensity of the power supersedes the flaws in the profile–but the track record associated with this type of swing-and-miss is not great. Since 2006, essentially only Bobby Dalbec at age 22 in 2017 and Domingo Santana at age 17 in 2010 had strikeout rates near this level in Low-A–and they still struck out at “only” a 37% rate–and made it to the major leagues.

Low-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Matt WilkinsonCLE100100
2Jonah TongNYM9195
3Quinn MathewsSTL8594
4Alejandro RosarioTEX8493
5Jarlin SusanaWSN8092
6Santiago SuarezTBR7990
7Didier FuentesATL8190
8Grant TaylorCHW7789
9George KlassenPHI7888
10Travis SykoraWSN8287
11Eliazar DishmeyMIA7386
12Yujanyer HerreraMIL8385
13Sean LinanLAD8484
14Kohl DrakeTEX8282
15Thomas WhiteMIA7282
16Ovis PortesBOS7081
17Mavis GravesPHI8580
18Welinton HerreraCOL6979
19Gary Gill HillTBR7879
20Jace KaminskaCOL7479
21Isaiah LoweSDP6779
22Noble MeyerMIA6778
23Jackson NezuhHOU6677
24Jose GonzalezTEX7077
25Alimber SantaHOU6677

Since June 1, the highest swinging strike rate of starting pitchers in Low-A are Travis Sykora (Nationals), Tommy Vail (White Sox)–a 25 year old lefthander–and Jojo Ingrassia (Red Sox). Ingrassia, a 21-year old lefthander, has a 40% strikeout rate and the second highest swinging strike rate at the level behind only Jonah Tong (Mets) who is of course at High-A Brooklyn now.

Under the hood, Ingrassia has above-average extension from a low three-quarter slot, allowing his 93 mph four-seam fastball to play up and contributing to both his 83 mph slider and his above average-to-plus split finger to each generate whiff rates over 50%. He probably needs to clean up the mechanics as his release heights have a four-inch variance, which advanced hitters will probably pick up on, but for now, the 14th-round selection out of Cal-State Fullerton in 2023 has been showing all the traits of a potential midrotation starter. Note the Red Sox just placed him on the injured list with elbow inflammation. He’s a deep league watchlist candidate until we learn more about the injury.

Since we’re on the topic of lefties for Low-A Salem with a low release slot and big extension, Noah Dean (Red Sox) and his five-pitch mix grades out with even better stuff than Ingrassia. Since June 3, both pitchers have strikeout rates over 39% and ground ball rates over 52%, but Dean has a 10% walk rate (compared to Ingrassia’s 7%) and is also two years older, slightly diminishing his peak projection. If the fifth-round draft pick of 2022 out of Old Dominion can get the walk rate into the single digits, he has a chance to be a back of the rotation starter, or, failing that, should be an effective weapon out of the bullpen.

High-A Hitters (min 60 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Michael ArroyoSEA96100
2Luke KeaschallMIN9097
3Lazaro MontesSEA10095
4Luke AdamsMIL8894
5Sal StewartCIN8391
6Xavier IsaacTBR8790
7Carter JensenKCR8489
8Sebastian WalcottTEX8887
9Alex FreelandLAD7585
10Samuel ZavalaCHW8084
11Brayden TaylorTBR7782
12William BergollaPHI7981
13Henry BolteOAK7480
14Ricardo OlivarMIN6979
15Cooper IngleCLE6979
16Cutter CoffeyBOS7379
17C.J. KayfusCLE6878
18Jhostynxon GarciaBOS6878
19Charles McAdooPIT6878
20Jefferson RojasCHC7178
21Yohendrick PinangoCHC7077
22Angel GenaoCLE6976
23Kristian CampbellBOS6376
24Jesus RodriguezNYY6775
25Cam CollierCIN7475

Since June 3, only Jhostynxon Garcia (Red Sox) and Nick Cimillo (Pirates) have hit more home runs than Allan Castro‘s (Red Sox) nine. Castro, a 21-year old outfielder signed out of the Dominican Republic, has taken a step forward in actualizing his game power, raising his 90th percentile exit velocity from 103.4 mph to just under 106 mph in 2024.

He always had good raw power–he had a 115 maximum exit velocity in 2023 and has registered a 111 mph this year–and coupled with his league average or better contact rate and chase rates, he finds himself just outside the top 25 after putting up the ninth-highest wRC+ in Low-A since June 3 for hitters with more than 100 plate appearances. RoboScout sees him as a slightly below-average hitter in the major leagues but capable of 20 to 25 home run seasons–though if he is only a fourth outfielder, he might never get the playing time to reach that ceiling.

Luke Adams (Brewers) has quietly put up an excellent year at High-A with nine home runs, 21 stolen bases and a 154 wRC+ over 312 plate appearances as a just-turned 20-year old. Playing mostly third base–but likely having to move across the diamond to first base–Adams has shown excellent on-base ability with better-than-league-average contact and chase rates and an excellent 106 mph 90th percentile exit velocity. Unfortunately, he hasn’t optimized his launch angles. Adams has the league’s 91st percentile for exit velocity, but his barrel rate and xwOBAcon are barely league average. Still, on account of his surface stats, RoboScout sees his peak MLB projection to be similar to Luke Keaschall (Twins)— with fairly similar underlying metrics as well. Purely from the data, he is a solid top 50 to 75 fantasy prospect.

High-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Noah SchultzCHW87100
2Matt WilkinsonCLE100100
3Quinn MathewsSTL9098
4Luis PeralesBOS8598
5Owen MurphyATL8897
6Chase DollanderCOL8697
7Zebby MatthewsMIN8092
8K.C. HuntMIL8990
9George KlassenPHI7988
10Jonah TongNYM8588
11Kohl DrakeTEX8786
12Thomas WhiteMIA7685
13Jedixson PaezBOS9284
14Jaden HammDET8384
15Winston SantosTEX7383
16Alessandro ErcolaniPIT6982
17Moises ChaceBAL6881
18Brandyn GarciaSEA6981
19Edgar PortesBAL6880
20Sean SullivanCOL8480
21Austin PetersonCLE7679
22Lazaro EstradaTOR6679
23Nolan McLeanNYM6679
24Ben ShieldsNYY7278
25Owen WildTBR7378

There has been very little movement in the High-A ranks since last week so instead I’ll mention again how Jedixson Paez (Red Sox) is proving to be a difficult evaluation for RoboScout. On the surface, there has not been a hotter pitcher since June 1. Paez has a 42% strikeout rate and a 4% walk rate over his six starts during that time, averaging nearly five innings per outing. The 38% strikeout minus walk rate is nearly 6% more than the starting pitcher with the second highest mark: Ben Shields (Yankees) with a 33% mark.

The difficulty is that similar to Matt Wilkinson (Guardians) and Yu-Min Lin (Diamondback), the surface stats are excellent but the arsenal doesn’t wow. However, what he lacks in arm speed—his fastballs sit 90 to 92 mph and his slider is 81 mph—he makes up for with big horizontal movement paired with well above average extension. He has an extremely fun pitching profile–and, from the data, a top 150 fantasy prospect in RoboScout’s opinion.

Double-A Hitters (min 60 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Emmanuel RodriguezMIN100100
2Agustin RamirezNYY8990
3Luke KeaschallMIN8589
4Moises BallesterosCHC8888
5Ryan CliffordNYM8585
6Matthew LugoBOS7984
7Carson WilliamsTBR8382
8Cole YoungSEA8181
9Deyvison De Los SantosARI8280
10Roman AnthonyBOS7780
11Alex FreelandLAD7480
12Hao-Yu LeeDET7980
13C.J. KayfusCLE7579
14Kristian CampbellBOS7279
15Edgar QueroCHW7578
16Jacob WilsonOAK6775
17Marcelo MayerBOS7175
18Colby ThomasOAK7075
19Charles McAdooPIT7074
20Samuel BasalloBAL8073
21Tyler LocklearSEA6673
22Harry FordSEA7072
23James TriantosCHC7071
24Alejandro OsunaTEX6570
25Kahlil WatsonCLE6668

Will you look at that? Kahlil Watson (Guardians) cracks the top 25 at Double-A for the first time all season as he attempts to rehabilitate his prospect pedigree. On the season, the 21-year old has 13 home runs and 10 stolen bases with a 108 wRC+. He has done most of his damage over the last six weeks with seven homers in his last 103 plate appearances. His power is unquestioned—he has a 104.7 mph 90th percentile exit velocity—but there have always been concerns with the swing-and-miss. He is sporting a 30% strikeout rate with a 69% contact rate, which places him in the same contact vs 90thEV cluster as Ryan Clifford (Mets), Carson Williams (Rays) and Joe Mack (Marlins). If you like their prospect profile–though with slightly lower defensive value–he is a shorter step down to them than you would have thought, even a month ago.

Double-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Noah SchultzCHW100100
2Zebby MatthewsMIN9797
3Bubba ChandlerPIT8789
4Jackson JobeDET8588
5Logan HendersonMIL9086
6Braxton AshcraftPIT8784
7Jacob MisiorowskiMIL8084
8Tink HenceSTL9283
9Thomas HarringtonPIT8380
10Quinn MathewsSTL8080
11Chandler ChamplainKCR9279
12Ben CaspariusLAD7779
13Blade TidwellNYM7579
14Austin PetersonCLE8378
15Carson PalmquistCOL8178
16Troy MeltonDET7577
17Nolan McLeanNYM7377
18Emiliano TeodoTEX7877
19Zach PenrodBOS8476
20Yilber DiazARI8076
21Kyle McGowinCHC7876
22Caden DanaLAA7975
23Brandon YoungBAL8575
24Mason AdamsCHW8474
25Tyler StuartNYM7574

Last year, Alex Pham (Orioles) put himself on the map with a solid 13.3 K/9 at High-A Aberdeen and earning the promotion to Double-A Bowie where he pitched 60 innings with a strikeout minus walk rate of 16%. Repeating the level in 2024, he has a strikeout minus walk rate of 20%. He has really dominated over the last six weeks with a 26% mark.

His four-seam fastball sat 91.9 mph topping out at 93 mph with a 20 inches of IVB last year. This year, he’s getting even more ride at 21 inches–the fifth-highest induced vertical break in full-season ball–while now sitting 92.4 mph and topping out at 96 mph. He threw both a slider and a cutter last year–in addition to a curveball with heavy downward action–but this year he is leaning much more on the cutter which sits 86 mph and generates over 40% whiffs. Don’t be fooled by the superficial 5.38 ERA – his xFIP on the season is 3.42, which is lower than Hayden Birdsong (Giants) who was called up to San Francisco earlier this year. All in all, it’s a back of the rotation mix. He should begin accumulating innings for Triple-A Norfolk by August if he isn’t packaged in a trade the next few days.

Noah Schultz (White Sox) looked human at the Futures Game and RoboScout is wondering if fatigue is beginning to set in, as the lefthander has only struck out 23% of batters in his last five starts after having a 38% rate in High-A. On June 3rd, his slider sat 82.8 mph with 13.1 inches of glove-side run with a spin rate of 2895 rpm. Since then, his slider has sat 82.5 mph with 11.7 inches of horizontal run—nearly fewer 1.5 incheswith a spin rate around 185 rpm lower and released from a height that is one inch lower. Hopefully this is not portending an issue—and is something to watch for over the next few weeks. RoboScout has digital digits crossed on behalf of the second highest ranked minor league pitcher for 2024, behind only Paul Skenes.

Triple-A Hitters (min 60 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1James WoodWSN100100
2Jackson HollidayBAL9897
3Coby MayoBAL8994
4Jose FerminSTL8189
5Kyle ManzardoCLE8086
6Miguel VargasLAD7886
7Andy PagesLAD7482
8Adrian Del CastilloARI7382
9Agustin RamirezNYY7882
10Jacob WilsonOAK7079
11Moises BallesterosCHC7678
12Matthew LugoBOS7077
13Niko KavadasBOS6576
14Deyvison De Los SantosARI8076
15Angel MartinezCLE7575
16Luis MatosSFG6675
17Jonatan ClaseSEA7175
18Shay WhitcombHOU7375
19Jordan BeckCOL6475
20Chase MeidrothBOS6674
21Jace JungDET7073
22Joey LoperfidoHOU6473
23Orelvis MartinezTOR7072
24Heliot RamosSFG6272
25Johnathan RodriguezCLE6472

Although his brief 40 plate appearance major league debut didn’t go as planned–with a 63 wRC+ with no home runs–Johnathan Rodriguez (Guardians) has once again mashed since returning to Triple-A, with a 157 wRC+ and nine home runs in his 120 plate appearances since returning to Columbus. The slugger makes good swing decisions and has tremendous bat speed, projecting as a 25 home run bat in the major leagues. If you like his org mate and prospect “doppelbanger” Jhonkensy Noel, you should probably like Rodriguez just as much—even accounting for the fact that Noel is two years younger—because of the fact that he chases significantly less out of the zone than Noel.

Triple-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Paul SkenesPIT100100
2Christian ScottNYM9192
3David FestaMIN8881
4Jack LeiterTEX7679
5Tylor MegillNYM8079
6Chayce McDermottBAL7778
7Will WarrenNYY7577
8Carson SpiersCIN7577
9Cade PovichBAL8677
10Tobias MyersMIL7377
11Slade CecconiARI8276
12Yilber DiazARI7976
13Chad PatrickMIL7676
14Elieser HernandezLAD7375
15Braxton AshcraftPIT7575
16Alek ManoahTOR7573
17Quinn PriesterPIT8472
18Cristian MenaARI7972
19Louie VarlandMIN7271
20Albert SuarezBAL7571
21Reid DetmersLAA8471
22Matt ManningDET6771
23AJ Smith-ShawverATL6970
24Jake WoodfordPIT7269
25Josh WinckowskiBOS6868

For fantasy managers who are desperate for starting pitching in redraft or in their dynasty league this year–Allan Winans (Braves) has been pitching quite well since June 1 with 42 strikeouts and only four walks in his last 41.1 innings. His 22.8% strikeout minus walk rate over that span is the seventh-highest among starting pitchers, behind such names as Shane Baz (Rays), Jeffrey Springs (Rays), David Festa (Twins), and Will Warren (Yankees). The stuff is still below-average, but the craftiness of his changeup-forward approach – his cambio gets whiffs and chases at a greater than 40% rate–might provide some reasonably cheap fantasy value if he returns to the Atlanta rotation, for example, to “control” Reynaldo Lopez’s workload through the dog days of summer.

Happy bidding!

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On July 21, 2024  appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-july-21-2024/feed/ 0
RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On July 14, 2024 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-july-14-2024/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-july-14-2024/#respond Sun, 14 Jul 2024 15:30:32 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1451646 It’s All-Star Weekend and we just saw the Futures Game riddled with RoboScout stars taking the field, covered on our live blog. Even though it’s…

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On July 14, 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
It’s All-Star Weekend and we just saw the Futures Game riddled with RoboScout stars taking the field, covered on our live blog.

Even though it’s the “break”, it’s traditional to spend some time with one’s teams and take an honest accounting of where it is in the standings and whether it has a chance to actually win, place or show. I also took advantage of the time to take a look at the RoboScout hitting model to see if some additional optimizing could take place. As a result, we’ve made a tweak to the statcast engine where the predictive nature of xwOBAcon was added to more accurately project wRC+. As a result, some of the rankings have changed slightly – though not too significantly.

Let’s see who RoboScout finds interesting right now…

As a reminder, the RoboScore is the value (0 to 100) assigned per level by RoboScout based on 2024 statistical performance and projecting fantasy value (without considering defensive position or ability). The RoboCast number is the RoboScore but with statcast blended in and then transformed to the 0 to 100 scale.

Dominican Summer League Hitters (min 30 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Jesus MadeMIL100100
2Eduardo BeltreMIN8892
3Jose AndersonMIL9790
4Juneiker CaceresCLE9489
5Elvin GarciaBAL8688
6Yolfran CastilloTEX8387
7Juan OrtunoMIL8585
8Gabriel RodriguezCLE8185
9Jirvin MorilloCIN7684
10Luis PenaMIL8583
11Edward FlorentinoPIT8183
12Jhonayker UgarteKCR7682
13Jaset MartinezCIN7582
14Emil MoralesLAD8381
15Adriander MejiaBAL6979
16Estivel MorilloCLE8478
17Diorland ZambranoCIN6778
18Claudiel LantiguaTEX8077
19Randy SotoTOR7177
20Yeiferth CastilloCLE6877

 

Although we’re seeing less volatility in the rankings, we are still seeing fewer new entrants into the top tier of hitters. Coming it at No. 7 is yet another Brewer, the right handed hitting Juan Ortuno, who has played mostly first base and left field this year – with a little bit of second and third base sprinkled in. With his plus contact rate, plus chase rate, and plus xwOBAcon, Ortuno hit a home run and stole a base this past week and finds himself at No. 7 on the DSL ranks. Because of the lower defensive value, he’s probably not a target yet – but if the bat continues to shine, he may force that issue.

Just outside of the Top 10 – one slot behind popular FAAB target, speedster Luis Pena (Brewers) – is Edward Florentino (Pirates), a massive outfielder from the Dominican Republic who just missed Ben Badler’s list of 30 buzzworthy DSL names . Signed for $400,000 for his plus-to-double-plus power, he has validated the reports with three home runs and a 90th percentile exit velocity of over 104 mph – but it’s the surprising contact rate and swing decisions that has turned RoboScout’s eye.

I’ve been asked if there are any DSL Pitchers who are catching RoboScout’s eye. As I’ve mentioned before, typically RoboScout doesn’t look at DSL pitchers – mostly because the success rate of pitchers is so low in general, notwithstanding even trying to identify who they would be. However, in the past, Jordy Vargas (Rockies), Luis Serna (Yankees) and Jeter Martinez (Mariners) have ranked highly when running the DSL pitching results in previous years through the ThrowboScout model. This year, the two pitchers who are far and away the leaders of the DSL pitchers in 2024 are Anderson Brito (Astros) and Keeler Morfe (Orioles).

Both pitchers have strikeout rates over 45% and walk rates under 8%, and for those who like the ratio stats, WHIPs under 0.90 and ERAs under 0.60. Yes, ERAs under zero point six. Under the hood, Brito – a Venezuelan righthander – throws a 96 mph fastball with 19 inches of IVB and a -4.3 VAA, an 81-83 mph slider with over a foot of horizontal break, and a changeup that has either inches of velocity and vertical break separation from the fastball. Two caveats are that he is 20 years old as of a week ago, and, mechanically, he throws his changeup from a release height that is three inches lower than his fastball – something that he will need to work on converging. 

As we said about Quinn Mathews (Cardinals) earlier this year with respect to him being an older pitcher than most of the hitters he was facing, the focus should rather be on the “stuff” to determine if indeed it is a case of an older pitcher wily exploiting under-experienced hitters. With Brito, a flat 96 mph four-seam fastball in a vacuum would play in the upper levels and in fact grades out surprisingly similarly to the fastball of Bubba Chandler (Pirates) though 1 mph slower with four to five inches less extension. With the success of the Astros pitching development machine, he’s definitely worth a flier in leagues where 400 prospects are rostered.

For Morfe, it is a similar situation where the raw stuff transcends age or level – and the development machine can refine the clay. Morfe, an 18-year old righthander also from Venezuela, has a 98 mph fastball that is even flatter than Brito’s while also running arm-side nearly 17 inches, an 83 mph slider that has nearly a foot of sweep, and a changeup. Just as with Brito, the inconsistency in the release heights from pitch-to-pitch needs to be addressed. But, again, as with Brito, he is in the right organization to help achieve this, and too is probably a speculative pick-up in leagues of up to 400 prospects just based on the raw material and situation.

 

Complex League Hitters (min 60 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Yeremi CabreraTEX100100
2Robert CalazCOL9798
3Eduardo TaitPHI10094
4Eric BitontiMIL8993
5Eduardo QuinteroLAD8289
6Franklin AriasBOS8588
7Starlyn CabaPHI8288
8Yoeilin CespedesBOS8387
9Pablo GuerreroTEX8785
10Edgleen PerezNYY7685
11Javier MogollonCHW8884
12Brailer GuerreroTBR7581
13Jhonny SeverinoPIT7481
14Felnin CelestenSEA7480
15Dameury PenaMIN7780
16Braylin MorelTEX8478
17Aroon EscobarPHI6978
18Jeremy RodriguezNYM8476
19Miguel RodriguezBAL7276
20Carlos TavaresWSN6775
21Yasser MercedesMIN6875
22Andruw MusettBOS6674
23Joshua LiranzoBAL7374
24Franyerber MontillaDET6674
25Demetrio CrisantesARI6274

Last year, Javier Mogollon (White Sox) was the top DSL name for RoboScout on account of his big power. Stateside in 2024, Mogollon has started off slow showing a large hole in his bat with a 55% contact rate. The power is still real when he does make contact though, with six home runs over his last 100 plate appearances, and the second highest xwOBAcon at the complex. It goes without saying that he will need to work on significantly lowering his 40% strikeout rate if he is to catch RoboScout’s eye moving forward.

First baseman/left fielder Carlos Tavares (Nationals) has been on the list for the last few weeks but enters the top 20 this week as he has a 137 wRC+ over 92 plate appearances as an 18-year old. The statcast data is what gives him the boost – as his swing decisions and bat-to-ball skills are above average or better – and although he doesn’t have big exit velocities, he does hit them at good angles leading to a higher xwOBAcon than higher profile 18-year olds like Felnin Celesten (Mariners) and Brailer Guerrero (Rays). The results haven’t followed yet – but the underlying metrics portend a future 20 home run bat. Watchlist name for now.

Complex League Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Yordy HerreraSTL100100
2Trevor HarrisonTBR9197
3Samuel SanchezLAD9292
4Christian ZazuetaLAD8691
5Sean LinanLAD8990
6Ovis PortesBOS8389
7Hayden RobinsonMIL9189
8Jacob BresnahanCLE9389
9Joseph YabbourNYM8189
10Rafael GonzalezHOU8388
11Keyner BenitezMIA9688
12Alix HernandezSFG8386
13Adrian HerreraCIN8186
14Jogly GarciaCLE8186
15Nelfy YnfanteSTL9086
16Adam BatesBOS7885
17Jesus CarreraHOU8184
18Luis MorellisCIN8683
19Sandy OzunaCOL8783
20Juan NunezHOU7482
21Jordarlin MendozaNYY7582
22Zander MuethPIT7482
23Yeferson VargasBOS7482
24Adrian BohorquezMIN7981
25Luis GonzalezPHI8580

The new top-ranked pitcher at the Complex, Yordy Herrera (Cardinals) is interesting in that he is a teenage southpaw reliever. Herrera throws a 93 mph fastball which has a lot of horizontal run – even though it’s thrown from a very high release point – and a tight bullet slider that currently sits 81 mph. It looks like a reliever profile but with his average of nearly two innings per outing – longer than seen with most relievers – RoboScout projects his 47% strikeout rate as a starting pitcher, sending him to the top of the table. Despite the high ranking here, he should be ranked below the other top eight names.

Low-A Hitters (min 60 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Axiel PlazPIT100100
2Michael ArroyoSEA9498
3Lazaro MontesSEA10097
4Colt EmersonSEA9096
5Leodalis De VriesSDP9896
6Blake MitchellKCR8795
7Kevin McGonigleDET8793
8Aidan SmithSEA8893
9Jonny FarmeloSEA7989
10Demetrio CrisantesARI7588
11Jeral PerezLAD7787
12Josue De PaulaLAD7486
13Ralphy VelazquezCLE7885
14Jaison ChourioCLE7583
15Walker JenkinsMIN7083
16Jesus BaezNYM7782
17Zyhir HopeLAD6882
18Alfredo DunoCIN7682
19George WolkowCHW8181
20Bryce EldridgeSFG6778
21Logan WagnerLAD6478
22Arjun NimmalaTOR7577
23Alexander AlbertusLAD6377
24Cristofer TorinARI6677
25Angel GenaoCLE6677

Do you know who has hit the most home runs in Low-A since May 27? Would it surprise you that it’s 18-year old catcher, Axiel Plaz (Pirates) with 10 over his last 117 plate appearances? RoboScout isn’t surprised – as Plaz was ranked in the top 50 in the RoboScout Top 100 that came out on July 1 on account of the incredible 30+ home run power, made all the more impressive by the fact that he is a catcher. Oh, and of course, he is also the new No. 1 ranked hitter at Low-A.

Since returning to Low-A, Arjun Nimmala (Blue Jays) has hit two home runs and stolen a base, with a 198 wRC+ over these 50 plate appearances. The contact rate has now crept up to league average after being below-average since the outset of the year. With his young age and thump in the bat, Nimmala projects well on RoboScout considering the extremely slow start – ahead of Angel Genao (Guardians) and behind fellow noteworthy sluggers-with-whiff-concerns Bryce Eldridge (Giants) and George Wolkow (White Sox). In a lost season for the Blue Jays, they are hoping that the rumors of Nimmala’s demise were greatly exaggerated.

Another slow starter where patience was required in retrospect, Leodalis De Vries (Padres) has put up a 123 wRC+ as the youngest hitter at Low-A. After putting up a 38% strikeout rate through April and May, De Vries has only struck out at a 20% rate since then with five home runs and six stolen bases. With a 96th percentile xwOBAcon as a 17 year old, the ceiling is sky high for the young shortstop. He’s a top 25 fantasy prospect.

Low-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Matt WilkinsonCLE100100
2Jonah TongNYM9195
3Quinn MathewsSTL8594
4Alejandro RosarioTEX8493
5Jarlin SusanaWSN8091
6Santiago SuarezTBR7990
7Didier FuentesATL8190
8Grant TaylorCHW7689
9George KlassenPHI7889
10Travis SykoraWSN8286
11Eliazar DishmeyMIA7386
12Yujanyer HerreraMIL8384
13Sean LinanLAD8483
14Thomas WhiteMIA7182
15Kohl DrakeTEX8282
16Welinton HerreraCOL6980
17Mavis GravesPHI8580
18Ovis PortesBOS7080
19Gary Gill HillTBR7878
20Noble MeyerMIA6678
21Alimber SantaHOU6678
22Jose GonzalezTEX7078
23Isaiah LoweSDP6777
24Jace KaminskaCOL7277
25Adam SerwinowskiCIN6477

Jace Kaminska (Rockies) debuted on the updated Rockies Top 30 list this month on account of his deep arsenal and ability to throw strikes. With a solid 24% strikeout minus walk rate, RoboScout sees the righthander as a back-of-the rotation starter. Of course, as a Rockies pitching prospect, that’s probably not enough to roster in fantasy except in the deepest of leagues.

Although not yet on the Low-A list, Jackson Nezuh (Astros) – a 13th round draft pick from 2023 out of Florida State has pitched well over the last six weeks with a 34% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate over his last eight starts. Although he’s not blessed with an overpowering fastball, the 92 mph four-seamer has nearly 20 inches of IVB and is released with big extension, and supplements his starter’s mix. It is a back-of-the-rotation starter’s profile but if he can continue to pitch as he has since June 1, he has a similar profile and results to Santiago Suarez (Rays) and conceivably has mid-rotation upside.

Another interesting pitcher who hasn’t yet graced the Top 25 is Blake Money (Orioles), a 12th round draft pick in 2023 out of the LSU bullpen. The 6-foot-7 righthander has been pitching in a hybrid role, not starting, but throwing four innings or more in each of his last seven appearances. In those outings, he’s rung up a 31% strikeout rate, yielding free passes at only a 5% rate. With a low 80s slider with over a foot of sweep, and a 93 mph four seamer with over 20 inches of IVB – with a changeup, curveball and cutter to supplement his arsenal – his big extension plays up and should be able to make it as a starter. He’s definitely an interesting underrated pitcher who should be watchlisted.

High-A Hitters (min 60 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Michael ArroyoSEA96100
2Lazaro MontesSEA10098
3Luke KeaschallMIN9097
4Luke AdamsMIL8995
5Xavier IsaacTBR8691
6Carter JensenKCR8490
7Sal StewartCIN8190
8Sebastian WalcottTEX8889
9Alex FreelandLAD7586
10Samuel ZavalaCHW8085
11Brayden TaylorTBR7682
12Henry BolteOAK7381
13Ricardo OlivarMIN7080
14Cutter CoffeyBOS7480
15William BergollaPHI7880
16Charles McAdooPIT6879
17C.J. KayfusCLE6879
18Yohendrick PinangoCHC7078
19Cooper IngleCLE6777
20Jhostynxon GarciaBOS6877
21Kristian CampbellBOS6376
22Cam CollierCIN7376
23Nick CimilloPIT6376
24RJ SchreckSEA6476
25Michael ArroyoSEA96100

RJ Schreck (Mariners) has been on a recent heater with eight home runs and a 188 wRC+ over the last six weeks. The Vanderbilt slugger has demonstrated plus swing decisions and above average contact while barreling at a near 20% rate all year. Surprisingly, he also has an essentially identical expected-wOBA-on-contact as his teammate, well-documented slugger, Lazaro Montes. Although he is a 23-year old college hitter in High-A and rightfully should be excelling, he has also demonstrated above average defense from corner outfield. Amongst all of the high-profile outfielders swamping the Mariner system, Schreck is arguably the most underrated and RoboScout suspects he could be a major league fourth outfielder.

Another unsung thumper, whose 17 home runs ranks second at the level for the season, is first baseman Nick Cimillo (Pirates). As we did with Charles McAdoo a few weeks ago, we need to caution that Greensboro boosts home runs by 50% compare to league average for righties, but the fact that Cimillo’s 90th percentile exit velocity and barrel rate (and xwOBAcon) surpasses McAdoo’s, we need to acknowledge that the power numbers transcend the park effects. Add in the fact that he has average contact and above average swing decisions, and you have a three true outcomes profile, essentially meaning he is a viable fantasy prospect in OBP leagues.

High-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Noah SchultzCHW87100
2Matt WilkinsonCLE100100
3Quinn MathewsSTL9098
4Luis PeralesBOS8598
5Chase DollanderCOL8697
6Owen MurphyATL8897
7Zebby MatthewsMIN8092
8K.C. HuntMIL8991
9Jonah TongNYM8589
10George KlassenPHI7888
11Kohl DrakeTEX8786
12Jedixson PaezBOS9286
13Thomas WhiteMIA7685
14Jaden HammDET8385
15Winston SantosTEX7383
16Alessandro ErcolaniPIT6982
17Brandyn GarciaSEA6982
18Moises ChaceBAL6881
19Sean SullivanCOL8481
20Edgar PortesBAL6880
21Lazaro EstradaTOR6680
22Luis VargasATL6779
23Ben ShieldsNYY7179
24Nolan McLeanNYM6679
25Austin PetersonCLE7678

On May 27, Jackson Ferris (Dodgers) – the 20-year old left hander who was acquired from the Cubs for Michael Busch – had a 1.59 WHIP and a 5.59 ERA, and if not for the solid early minor league returns from Zyhir Hope (Dodgers) who also came to Los Angeles in the trade, it initially seemed like the Cubs had come out on top in the deal. Well, since then, Ferris has had a 1.00 WHIP, a 2.88 ERA and a strikeout minus walk rate of 27%, averaging nearly five innings per start. When you consider he is 6-foot-4 with above-average extension and his loud, projectable stuff gets even louder. It’s a short track record of this type of success, but Ferris has gotten back on track to become a mid-rotation starter. He should be considered a Top 150 fantasy prospect.

In his first three starts since arriving at High-A Hickory, Kohl Drake (Rangers) has struck out 32% of hitters he’s faced while only walking 3%. We talked about the 6-foot-5 lefty a few weeks ago, just before he got the call, and he has done nothing to quell the excitement that RoboScout has for the 11th round draft pick from 2023. One thing to notice is that he has a very low 28% groundball rate at the new level which is interesting considering he had a 46% rate at Low-A Down East. If it sticks, this could lead to some home run trouble but for now, the year’s body of work has his peak projection sitting in the same tier as Jaden Hamm (Tigers), Jonah Tong (Mets), and George Klassen (Phillies) tier – despite the “stuff” being a notch below these higher-regarded prospects. If you are a glass half-full dynasty manager, he is a Top 200 prospect based on the RoboScout projections.

Double-A Hitters (min 60 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Emmanuel RodriguezMIN100100
2Agustin RamirezNYY8890
3Luke KeaschallMIN8588
4Moises BallesterosCHC8887
5Matthew LugoBOS7983
6Ryan CliffordNYM8382
7Carson WilliamsTBR8182
8Alex FreelandLAD7682
9Hao-Yu LeeDET7982
10Roman AnthonyBOS7781
11Deyvison De Los SantosARI8280
12Cole YoungSEA8080
13Kristian CampbellBOS7279
14C.J. KayfusCLE7479
15Edgar QueroCHW7578
16Charles McAdooPIT6975
17Samuel BasalloBAL8275
18Jacob WilsonOAK6775
19Colby ThomasOAK7075
20Harry FordSEA7173
21Tyler LocklearSEA6672
22James TriantosCHC7072
23Marcelo MayerBOS6671
24Zac VeenCOL6669
25Dalton RushingLAD5969

A name just outside the Top 25 is Tucker Flint (Angels) who on the season has 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases with a 149 wRC+ over 325 plate appearances. The 13th round pick of 2022, true to the Angels modus operandi, aggressively assigned the outfielder/first baseman to Double-A Rocket City last year where he put up a pedestrian 107 wRC+. Repeating the level this year, Flint has shown an improved knack to barrel up and has hit more of his hard-hit balls at the optimal launch angles. Looking at similar statcast profiles amongst hitters at Double-A, Flint maps quite closely to C.J. Kayfus (Guardians) and Ben Rice (Yankees). Do with that information what you will.

At High-A Hickory, Alejandro Osuna (Rangers) put up a nice blend of power and speed as a 21-year old, with nine home runs and ten stolen bases over his 196 plate appearances, earning a promotion to Double-A Frisco. In his first 47 plate appearances at the new level, Osuna has hit two bombs and stolen two bases, putting up a scorching 197 wRC+. The statcast data is solid across the board with better than average contact and above average to plus contact quality. Although he does chase more than league average, it has not affected his performance, as he’s projected to be a near 20 HR and 12 to 15 SB power/speed threat albeit with below average OBPs. One thing to note is that he is far better against fastballs than non-fastballs which introduces some wariness. So far, he’s not struggling against the upper level pitching he’s been facing, but RoboScout does preach caution. Watchlist name, but worth taking in leagues with up to 300 prospects, especially when realizing he is playing a solid defensive centerfield.

Double-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Noah SchultzCHW100100
2Zebby MatthewsMIN9796
3Bubba ChandlerPIT8789
4Logan HendersonMIL9389
5Jackson JobeDET8588
6Braxton AshcraftPIT8784
7Jacob MisiorowskiMIL8084
8Tink HenceSTL9283
9Thomas HarringtonPIT8381
10Chandler ChamplainKCR9280
11Ben CaspariusLAD7779
12Blade TidwellNYM7579
13Carson PalmquistCOL7977
14Troy MeltonDET7577
15Nolan McLeanNYM7377
16Chris CamposLAD7476
17Emiliano TeodoTEX7976
18Zach PenrodBOS8476
19Brandon YoungBAL8576
20Austin PetersonCLE8276
21Yilber DiazARI8075
22Andrew MorrisMIN8275
23Kyle McGowinCHC7875
24Justin JarvisNYM7575
25Brandon SproatNYM7674

The big performance this past week – enough to catapult him into the Top 10 – belongs to Thomas Harrington (Pirates) with an 11 strikeout performance against Bowie. The righthander has a 93 mph four seamer with two-plane movement and higher-than-average extension, a tight 83 mph slider that has touched 87 mph, an 88 mph cutter that generates weak contact, and an effective splitter. It’s a viable starter’s mix that gives him a high-floor and high certainty of making the major leagues, just don’t expect him to have his own section in the crowd where they flip over “K” cards. It’s not the sexiest fantasy profile, but still sits in the Top 150 for me on account of his floor.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one, the Dodgers have developed a pitcher who was on very few pre-season lists and is now ascending up RoboScout ranks in 2024. This time, it’s Chris Campos (Dodgers), a seventh-round draft pick in 2022 out of St. Mary’s who, as a 23-year old in Double-A, throws from a low release slot with high extension leading to a super flat 93 mph fastball and complements this with a slider, changeup, cutter, and curveball that each have whiff rates better than league average. Campos has been averaging over five innings in his three starts at Tulsa so far with only a 4% walk rate. He should make it as a starter, and RoboScout sees his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter with his modern pitch shapes, especially if he continues going deeper into games for a third time through a batting order.

Triple-A Hitters (min 60 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1James WoodWSN100100
2Coby MayoBAL9094
3Kyle ManzardoCLE8389
4Jackson HollidayBAL8989
5Jose FerminSTL7987
6Miguel VargasLAD7886
7Adrian Del CastilloARI7583
8Agustin RamirezNYY7983
9Andy PagesLAD7482
10Jacob WilsonOAK6978
11Moises BallesterosCHC7676
12Shay WhitcombHOU7476
13Angel MartinezCLE7575
14Luis MatosSFG6675
15Deyvison De Los SantosARI7975
16Matthew LugoBOS6875
17Jonatan ClaseSEA7175
18Jordan BeckCOL6475
19Johnathan RodriguezCLE6874
20Niko KavadasBOS6273
21Tyler BlackMIL6873
22Joey LoperfidoHOU6473
23Chase MeidrothBOS6572
24Orelvis MartinezTOR7072
25Jace JungDET6972

Former Yankee and RoboScout target, Andres Chaparro (Diamondbacks) has been on a bit of a tear recently with nine home runs in his last 162 plate appearances. The third baseman/first baseman has always had big power with solid contact and a little bit too much chase, and Chaparro has done exactly the same thing for the third straight year, with a 72 to 75% contact rate, 14 to 18% barrel rate, 104 to 105 mph 90th percentile exit velocity with the 30% chase rate. With Deyvison De Los Santos’s resurgence, Chaparro won’t be the heir apparent to Eugenio Suarez and probably isn’t fantasy relevant unless it’s a deep league

Triple-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Paul SkenesPIT100100
2Christian ScottNYM9192
3David FestaMIN8881
4Will WarrenNYY7880
5Jack LeiterTEX7679
6Chayce McDermottBAL7979
7Cade PovichBAL8879
8Tylor MegillNYM7978
9Carson SpiersCIN7577
10Tobias MyersMIL7377
11Slade CecconiARI8276
12Yilber DiazARI7976
13Chad PatrickMIL7676
14Elieser HernandezLAD7375
15Braxton AshcraftPIT7575
16Alek ManoahTOR7573
17Quinn PriesterPIT8472
18Reid DetmersLAA8671
19Matt ManningDET6871
20Cristian MenaARI7971
21Albert SuarezBAL7571
22Louie VarlandMIN7270
23AJ Smith-ShawverATL6969
24Brandon YoungBAL7669
25Jake WoodfordPIT7269

For those of you who have been anxiously awaiting the return of Reid Detmers to the big leagues after he was demoted to Triple-A Salt Lake earlier this year, the wait shouldn’t be too long, as the lefty has a 30% strikeout rate and a top ten swinging strike rate since he was sent down. The bad news, is that he has a 1.36 WHIP, a 6.00 ERA and the stuff metrics and shapes have interestingly changed compared to his major league stint. Not sure if it’s something the Angels have initiated, especially since most models have downgraded his new output.

Happy bidding!

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On July 14, 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

]]>
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-july-14-2024/feed/ 0