Minor https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/competition/minor/ Baseball America is the authority on the MLB Draft, MLB prospects, college baseball, high school baseball, international free agents. Baseball America finds the future of the game of baseball. Fri, 23 Aug 2024 02:11:43 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.3 https://www.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bba-favicon-32x32-1.bmp Minor https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/competition/minor/ 32 32 Draft Podcast: Hot 2024 Draft Debuts & Summer Standouts For 2025 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/draft-podcast-hot-2024-draft-debuts-summer-standouts-for-2025/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/draft-podcast-hot-2024-draft-debuts-summer-standouts-for-2025/#respond Fri, 23 Aug 2024 11:00:00 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1489341 Podcast hosts Carlos Collazo and Peter Flaherty discuss notable early pro debuts from the 2024 MLB draft class, summer 2025 standouts & more.

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Carlos Collazo and Peter Flaherty are back for the triumphant return of the Baseball America Draft Podcast to talk about notable early pro debuts from the 2024 draft class and lots more.

Who’s been hotter than Christian Moore? Are we more excited about buying into a first base profile after what we’ve seen from Nick Kurtz? Can anyone slow down the Angels with their aggressive pushing of prospects? Are we concerned about Charlie Condon’s strikeouts?

Later, the discussion shifts to college player analysis for the 2025 class with Peter breaking down the most impressive players he saw in the Cape Cod League and his Top 100 transfer portal rankings. The show closes out with an intriguing discussion about college baseball’s added scholarships and a rundown of notable high school standouts from the summer, specifically from the annual East Coast Pro Showcase.

  • Christian Moore and Nick Kurtz (2:00)
  • David Mershon (9:00)
  • Derek Clark (11:00)
  • Charlie Condon struggles (13:00)
  • Aiva Arquette (16:30)
  • Nick Dumesnil (18:40)
  • Ethan Conrad (20:00)
  • What was the Cape’s talent level this year? (21:00)
  • Joey Volchko as the top arm for 2026? (24:00)
  • Brandon Compton (25:30)
  • Murf Gray (27:00)
  • Transfer portal talk (29:00)
  • College scholarships for players (33:00)
  • High school standouts from this summer and the East Coast Pro (42:00)

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Which Young Power Prospects Have The Highest 90th Percentile Exit Velocity? https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/which-young-power-prospects-have-the-highest-90th-percentile-exit-velocity/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/which-young-power-prospects-have-the-highest-90th-percentile-exit-velocity/#respond Thu, 22 Aug 2024 16:51:23 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1489294 A trio of MiLB's best young power prospects lead the way with eye-popping 90th percentile exit velocities over 110 mph.

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It’s almost cliche to say that hitting the ball harder leads to better outcomes for batters. Despite the tired refrain, it’s still a concept many dismiss when it comes to predicting future production at the major league level. There’s certainly other important elements to hitting, but big, raw power leaves room for error, and that room for error translates to production on mishits.

Today, we’ll dive into a group of standout power hitters age 21 or younger presently in the minor leagues. 

We’ll use percentile rankings amongst the players 21 or younger prior to July 15th. This will help us further contextualize where their metrics rank among age based peers. The 15 hitters discussed within this article all rate within the top 2% of 90th percentile exit velocity among players 21 or younger. 

Tony Blanco Jr., OF, Pirates

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 112.3 mph (100th Percentile)

Blanco’s name is likely to be met with a steady dose of “Who?” But there’s no one 21 or under in the minor leagues who hits the ball as hard as Blanco. The son of former MLB player and four-time Nippon Professional Baseball all-star Tony Blanco, Jr. hit .305/.385/.505 in his stateside debut in the Florida Complex League in 2024. Raw power is Blanco’s calling card, as he reached a max exit velocity of 117.5 mph this season. The downside is Blanco’s contact rates sit in the bottom 15 percentile to go with just average swing decisions. With plus power, bat speed and ball flight, any improvements to Blanco’s contact could yield serious results. 

Benny Montgomery, OF, Rockies 

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 110.4 mph (100th Percentile)

It’s been a rough entry into pro ball for Montgomery, who has struggled to find consistency and health over the last three seasons. Earlier this year Montgomery, looked like he might be hitting his stride until suffering a left shoulder injury that required surgery. While Montgomery’s plate skills are still poor—he ranks in the bottom 10% in both miss and chase rates—his exit velocity data is outstanding. We’re playing with very small samples sizes here, as Montgomery only played in 11 games this season. That said, few players in the game are as tooled up and athletic as Montgomery. When your athletic testing and raw power metrics break the scale, it gets easier to dismiss really concerning bat-to-ball and swing decisions. Montgomery possesses a big power and speed upside, but his plate skills and injury history leave many weary. 

Jac Caglianone, 1B, Royals

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 110.3 mph (100th Percentile)

This should come as no surprise to anyone who follows college baseball or the draft, as Caglianone’s power exploits at Florida were well documented. While Jac’s bottom 10th percentile swing decisions still plague him, his early returns in pro ball show his power isn’t slowing down with the switch to a wood bat. In just 13 games as a professional, Caglianone has already hit a ball 114 mph while displaying 75th percentile zone contact rates. His angles have been less outstanding, as his line drive+flyball rate is in the bottom 15% of players 21 or younger. This offseason, Caglianone must focus on improving his swing decisions and optimizing his batted ball angles on hard contact. Lord knows he makes plenty of it. 

Robert Calaz, OF, Rockies

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 109.5 mph (100th Percentile) 

The Rockies have scouted the international market as well as anyone in recent years, and Calaz is their most recent IFA product. The slugger made his stateside debut in the Arizona Complex League this season hitting .349/.462/.651 with 10 home runs. Calaz led the ACL in home runs, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Despite contact and chase rates that rank in the bottom 30th percentile, Calaz was productive due to outstanding power and the ability to elevate on his best struck drives. Calaz’s .415 xwOBAcon ranks in the 97th percentile, pointing to his elite power and angles on contact. If Calaz can improve his bat-to-ball skills and swing decisions, it’s not hyperbole to state there is 40 home run power lurking. 

Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 109.4 mph (100th Percentile) 

Our second 2024 draftee featured in this article after Caglianone, Kurtz has had arguably the best debut in pro ball of any 2024 first rounder. Kurtz went 10-for-25 over seven games with Low-A Stockton before earning promotion to Double-A Midland where’s he reached base four times over his first two games with the RockHounds. Kurtz has one of the better combination of advanced plate skills and power in minor leagues and could move to the major leagues quickly. His contact rates are in the top 80% while his chase rate isn’t far off, either, ranking in the top 76th percentile. Kurtz, however, isn’t here due to his plate skills—it’s his outstanding power. In a small professional sample, Kurtz’s xwOBAcon, 90th percentile exit velocity, max EV and hard-hit rate all rank on the top five percent of hitters. In a season where excitement is in short supply in Oakland, Kurtz brings hope. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Twins 

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 109.3 mph (100th Percentile)

Unfortunately, injuries robbed us of another full season of Rodriguez, as he’s been limited to just 39 games. He remains on the injured list due to a right thumb strain, but when Rodrigues in the lineup it’s hard to argue with the production, as he hit .298/.479/.621 over 37 games with Double-A Wichita. He’s one of the most well rounded prospects in the game, making an impact on both sides of the ball. While you could argue Rodriguez elite on-base ability is his most outstanding tool, his power metrics rate just as highly. Rodriguez’s 90th percentile exit velocity, max EV, xwOBAcon and hard-hit rate all rank in the 98th percentile or higher. With great power, plate discipline and batted ball angles, Rodriguez is a picture-perfect modern archetype hitter. 

Elijah Green, OF, Nationals 

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 109 mph (100th Percentile) 

Let’s just get this out of the way: The bat-to-ball ability is bad. Green has run a 40%+ strikeout rate over his first two full seasons of full season play, and his contact rates are in the bottom five percent despite fringe-average swing decisions. This is a limiting factor for Green’s power, which on its face is elite. Green’s max EV of 116 mph and 45.8% hard-hit rate rank among the top five percent, but it’s a real question if he gets to it consistently due to his penchant for whiffs. 

Deyvison De Los Santos, 3B, Marlins

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 108.9 mph (99th Percentile)

The least shocking name as far as inclusion on this list has to be De Los Santos, who’s currently leading all of MiLB in home runs with 35. Acquired by the Marlins at the deadline from the Diamondbacks, De Los Santos also spent some time this spring with the Guardians organization after being selected in the 2023 Rule 5 draft. Now settled with the Marlins, De Los Santos is one of the best young power hitters in the minors. Despite a bottom 2% chase rate and contact that rates in the bottom third of the minors, De Los Santos has only struck out at a rate of 23.8% in 2024 across all levels. His power metrics are outstanding, as De Los Santos ranks in the top 1% in 90th percentile exit velocity, max EV and xwOBAcon. Plate skills questions will likely make for a rough entry into the major leagues, but incremental improvements in that area could lead to loud results one day. 

Christian Moore, SS, Angels

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 108.5 mph (99th Percentile)

Duking it out with Nick Kurtz for the best professional debut among first rounders, Moore is off to an early lead. The Angels’ first rounder has hit .357/.410/.661 with five home runs over his first 14 Double-A games. While there’s been some concerning swing-and-miss early, Moore has shown a knack for finding the barrel and doing damage, as his xwOBAcon, 90th percentile exit velocity and hard hit rate all rank in the top 1%. His ability to find the barrel puts him in elite company for barrel rate, and it has led to elite production early. Moore’s power is major league-ready, but his swing-and-miss at Double-A, particularly in-zone, will perhaps delay his ETA. 

Roman Anthony, OF, Red Sox 

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 108.5 mph (99th percentile)

Recently promoted to Triple-A Worcester, Anthony is the best power prospect among the Red Sox’s top four position prospects, as his raw power output exceeds anything Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel or Kristian Campbell can rival. Anthony is the most well-rounded hitter on this list, too, as his contact and chase numbers all rate in the top 60th percentile or better. Still, Anthony’s power is his calling card, with his 90th percentile exit velocity, max EV, hard hit rate and bat speed all ranking within the top 1%. The biggest limiting factor to Anthony developing into a plus power hitting corner outfielder is fringe-average ball flight metrics. Small tweaks to his swing path could unlock even more power from Anthony. 

Zyhir Hope, OF, Dodgers

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 108.5 mph (99th Percentile)

Acquired by the Dodgers this past offseason in the trade that sent Michael Busch to the Cubs, Hope is one of the highest-upside power bats in the minor leagues. He got off to a hot start to begin the season before missing time with a shoulder injury. Since returning to the Rancho Cucamonga lineup on July 27th, Hope has hit .276/.415/.461 with six extra base hits. While Hope’s numbers are strong for a 19-year-old at a full-season level, his power numbers are outstanding. Hope’s xwOBAcon, 90th percentile exit velocity, max EV, hard-hit rate and xwOBA all rate within the top 10% among hitters 21 years of age or younger. When you factor in Hope’s 88th percentile chase rate and 79th percentile zone contact, you have a really exciting young player. The shoulder injury likely depressed some of Hope’s helium, but he’s an exciting player to dream on in the coming years. 

Thayron Liranzo, C, Tigers 

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 108.2 mph (99th percentile)

A switch-hitting catcher with elite power is like a unicorn, but the Tigers may have acquired just that in Liranzo at this year’s trade deadline. While Liranzo failed to meet expectations early this season with High-A Great Lakes, the move across the Midwest League to West Michigan has seen him flourish, hitting .396/.547/.771 with four home runs over his first 15 games post-trade. Liranzo has excellent swing decisions. He ranks in the top 20% in chase rate and fringe-average contact, and it’s enough to get to his easy plus raw power. Liranzo rates within the the top 10th percentile in xwOBAcon, 90th percentile exit velocity, max EV, hard-hit rate and barrel rate for players 21 or younger. Some present swing-and=miss is a concern, and the track record of switch-hitters taking longer to develop may worry some, but it’s tough to find another young switch-hitter with this type of power. 

Xavier Isaac, 1B, Rays 

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 108.1 mph (99th Percentile)

Like many on this list, Issac is a contact quality standout with production to match. He has hit .272/.372/.510 with 17 home runs across High-A and Double-A in 2024 as a 20-year-old. Though Isaac has shown bottom 10th percentile contact this season, his swing decisions grade as average and have allowed him to consistently attack the right pitches to do damage. His 90th percentile exit velocity, max exit velocity, xwOBAcon, line drive+flyball rate, hard-hit rate and barrel rate all rank within the top five percent of players 21 years of age or younger. The hulking Isaac’s ability to consistently get to his raw power in games makes him a potential 40-home run threat in the future. 

George Wolkow, OF, White Sox 

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 108.1 mph (99th Percentile) 

The gargantuan Wolkow stands 6-foot-7, 239 pound and is one of the more fascinating prospects in the lower minors at present. Despite substantial swing-and-miss issues—Wolkow ranks in the bottom five percent in miss and zone-miss—the outfielder has managed to stay productive. Across two levels, Wolkow has slashed .265/.370/.480 with 29 extra base hits despite a 40.7% strikeout rate. The reason Wolkow has managed to stay productive despite bottom of the barrel contact is his power. Wolkow’s 90th percentile and maximum exit velocity both rank in the top three percent, while his xwOBAcon, hard-hit rate and barrel rate all rank within the top 10%. Whether or not Wolkow can ultimately make enough contact at the higher levels will determine his ultimate role. 

Samuel Basallo, C, Orioles

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 106.7 mph (98th Percentile) 

There were about a dozen hitters I skipped over in 90th percentile exit velocity rankings to discuss Basallo, but for good reason: None of the players between Wolkow and Basallo have the same kind of outstanding production as a professional that Basallo does. After dealing with injuries throughout the season, Basallo has still managed to hit .283/.348/.452 with 15 home runs this season. Despite being only 19 years olf for a majority of the season, Basallo has been 26% better than the average Eastern League hitter, and his power metrics rank even higher. Basallo rates within the 98th percentile for 90% and max exit velocity, hard-hit rate and bat speed, while his xwOBAcon and barrel rate rank within the top 15% of players 21 years of age or younger. Though the hype may have died down slightly, it’s all systems go on Basallo.

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10 Unheralded Young Pitching Prospects With Plus Stuff, Performance In 2024 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/10-unheralded-young-pitching-prospects-with-plus-stuff-performance-in-2024/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/10-unheralded-young-pitching-prospects-with-plus-stuff-performance-in-2024/#respond Wed, 21 Aug 2024 18:00:59 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1488444 Unsurprisingly, several Rays pitching prospects highlight Geoff Pontes’ look at potential breakout starters.

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The process of identifying potential starting pitching prospects is often a double-edged sword. Pitchability, strike-throwing and deception are all important traits, and often separate pitchers from throwers. In the end, though, there’s a big difference between executing 89-91 mph with loopy stuff and 94 mph or more than a plus secondary. 

Marrying the two together isn’t easy. But there are some younger pitchers pairing good stuff and solid performance in 2024. 

Today, we’ll look at some less-heralded starters who rate out as having plus stuff per our Stuff+ metric and factor in overall performance this season. The goal is to identify young pitchers and future potential MLB starters with elite stuff and the ability to hold it as a starter over the course of a season.

Tyler Gough, RHP, Mariners 

Age: 21
Stuff+: 119 

The Mariners signed Gough for $275,000 as a ninth-rounder in 2022. He debuted in 2023 with Low-A Modesto and made nine starts, then returned to the level in 2024, where he made 22 starts with a 4.03 ERA, 3.93 FIP and a 23.5% strikeout rate. Gough is a lesser-known name, but has interesting and projectable stuff. 

His 92-93 mph four-seam fastball touches 97 with plus vertical break in the 19-20 inches range with between 10-11 inches of armside run. Gough mixes a low-80s sweeper that averages 15 inches of horizontal break. His slider (129 Stuff+ score) grades out as the best pitch in his arsenal. His changeup grades well, too, and is his best swing-and-miss pitch in 2024. Most importantly, Gough has shown some ability to handle innings, getting into the fifth or later nine times in 2024. 

Moises Chace, RHP, Phillies 

Age: 21
Stuff+: 116 

The Phillies acquired Chace, a young righty with solid performance, at the deadline for Gregory Soto. Chace is fresh off his Double-A debut and owns a 3.43 ERA with 95 strikeouts to 34 walks over 65.2 innings pitched. After the Orioles limited Chace to three to four innings per start, the Phillies have taken the reins off, allowing him to go five innings the last two times out. 

Chace has a plus four-seam fastball, sitting 94-95 mph and touching 97 mph at peak. The four-seamer generates efficient shape, averaging 18 inches of induced vertical break and 11 inches of armside run from a 64-inch release height. This creates a unique -3.83 degree vertical approach angle, one of the flattest fastball planes in professional baseball. Chace pairs that with a low-80s sweepy slider that averages 13 inches of horizontal break. His low-80s changeup grades out well, with good vertical separation and an 11 mph split off the fastball. Acquiring a higher upside piece for a spare part may end up being a shrewd move by the Phillies. 

Yoniel Curet, RHP, Rays

Age: 21
Stuff+: 115

Few pitchers in the minors live off their fastball as much as Curet. The powerful Rays righthander throws the pitch over 65% of the time and still generates good results. Over 21 starts with High-A Bowling Green, Curet owns a 3.28 ERA, 30.3% strikeout rate with a .198 opponent batting average. Curet also impressed after his promotion to Double-A Montgomery last week. 

He mixes a plus fastball that sits 94-96 mph touching 98 mph at peak with average vertical break and heavy armside run from over 6.5 feet of extension. Despite the high usage on his fastball, Curet still generates a high number of whiffs with a 13.1% swinging strike rate. His primary secondary is a hard 85-88 mph slider with cutter-like shape that shows bat-missing ability. Curet’s changeup is clearly a third pitch, but has also shown some bat-missing skills. Curet’s high fastball usage and fringe command gives him some relief risk, but he continues to perform at a young age at higher levels. 

Nolan McLean, RHP, Mets 

Age: 23
Stuff+: 114 

A two-way star at Oklahoma State, McLean was drafted in 2022 by the Orioles but didn’t sign and returned to campus. The Mets drafted him in the third round the following year and he has been very good in his professional debut. Over 21 starts, most of which came in Double-A, McLean owns a 3.89 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate to a 8.3% walk rate. After moonlighting as a two-way player earlier in 2024, the Mets made the announcement in mid-July that McLean would exclusively pitch going forward. It’s a wise choice, as McLean has excellent stuff. 

His four-seam fastball grades out at 107 Stuff+ sitting 94-96 mph with average vertical break and nearly a foot of armside run from a 64-inch release height, creating good plane. McLean’s slider is the highest-graded pitch in his arsenal. It’s an excellent bat-misser sitting 85-86 mph with on average 14 inches of horizontal break. McLean has one of the best combinations of power and movement you’ll see on a sweeper. He also mixes in a changeup and cutter, but uses them much less frequently than his fastball-slider combination. Could McLean be another potential future rotation piece lurking in the Mets’ farm? 

Edgar Portes, RHP, Orioles

Age: 21 
Stuff+: 113 

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2019, Portes has taken some time to marinate in the Orioles system, but has experienced a true breakout in 2024. Over 22 appearances (11 starts), Portes has pitched to a 3.30 ERA, backed by a 3.28 FIP with a 29.9% strikeout rate. His command is still shaky with a 12% walk rate, and he’s been limited to three to four innings mostly. 

Portes pitches off his slider as his primary pitch. It makes sense considering its unique ride-sweeper shape. His 90-93 mph fastball touches 96 with plus vertical break from nearly seven feet of extension. The fastball certainly plays. His fringy changeup is his third pitch, but it’s less important because of his slider quality. Portes has generated a nearly 25% swinging strike rate against the slider despite heavy usage in 2024. His slider is a standout pitch, and his fastball shape and release couple play up further in the coming years with added power. 

Chris Campos, RHP, Dodgers

Age: 24
Stuff+: 113

Campos is the second former two-way player on the list. He spent the majority of his St. Mary’s career at shortstop, but the Dodgers converted him to pitching full-time after selecting him in the seventh round in 2022. The results back the decision. Campos threw just 34.2 innings collegiately and quickly surpassed that number as a professional. He’s experiencing a breakout season in 2024. Campos owns a 3.17 ERA over 21 outings (14 starts) with a 25.3% strikeout rate to just a 6.6% walk rate. He reached Double-A in late June and continued to perform well with Tulsa. 

Campos’ 92-94 mph fastball touches 96 mph and averages 19 inches of IVB and 10 inches of horizontal break. He has excellent plane, generating a -4.1 VAA due to his 65-inch release height and 6.5 feet of extension. Campos’ 85-87 mph cut-slider is his primary secondary and generates around a 25% swinging strike rate. He mixes in a changeup as well to solid results this season. Campos might be the next breakout name to develop into a big league starter from the Dodgers’ player development machine. 

Adam Serwinowski, LHP, Reds

Age: 20
Stuff+: 113

The Reds took it slow with Serwinowski after drafting him out of high school in the 15th round of the 2022 draft. He didn’t make his full-season debut until 2024, and the results have justified their methodical approach. Over 22 starts this season, Serwinowski has pitched to a 3.52 ERA, 3.51 FIP while striking out 29.2% of batters he’s faced while keeping the ball in the park. 

Serwinowski’s 93-95 mph four-seamer touches 97 and averages 18 inches of induced vertical break and cut. His 82-83 mph slider is his primary secondary. It has depth, sweep and generates an 18.4% swinging strike rate. He’s still developing a third pitch. Serwinowski will flash a curveball, but an offspeed is needed. He’s still years away, though, and is showing a serious one-two punch in his fastball and slider. 

Santiago Suarez, RHP, Rays

Age: 19
Stuff+: 113 

This list is littered with Rays. Perhaps that shouldn’t be surprising given their taste for pitchers with good stuff. Suarez signed with the Marlins out of Venezuela in 2022. They traded him to the Rays that November in the Xavier Edwards deal. It’s looking like another shrewd move by the Rays, as Suarez is developing into one of the best young pitchers in their system. Over 19 starts with Low-A Charleston in 2024, Suarez owns a 4.24 ERA but his 3.57 FIP and 2.93 xFIP put that number into perspective. 

Suarez shows power and bat-missing ability with at least above-average command, striking out 25.9% of batters faced while walking just 4.3%. Even more impressive, Suarez has gone five or more innings in 14 of his 19 starts. Stuff wise, Suarez is a standout mixing a four-seam fastball at 94-95 mph with on average 18 inches of ride with 6-feet-8 of extension and four secondaries. His primary secondary is a high-80s cutter, but he also shows a low-80s curveball, slider and a splitter. It’s an interesting mix with good results to match. Suarez is a name to follow over the next two seasons as he ascends to the major leagues. 

Brody Hopkins, RHP, Rays

Age: 22
Stuff+: 112 

The Rays made another savvy move (it’s a theme!) when they acquired Hopkins as a part of the Randy Arozarena swap. A two-way player in college at College of Charleston and then Winthrop, Hopkins is a standout athlete that has taken well to a pitcher-only role. At the time of his acquisition, opposing scouts and analysts had much higher grades on Hopkins than the public. So far, Hopkins is showing those were wise evaluations. Hopkins has dominated in three starts with High-A Bowling Green, striking out 19 batters to just three walks over 15.1 innings. 

The righty mixes four pitches with above-average stuff grades in a four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a slider and a cutter. Hopkins’ slider is the standout if his arsenal sitting 87 mph with two-plane break. His fastball variations have distinct shape from each other, both sitting 94-96 mph and touching 99 mph at peak. He generates average extension but his lower slot allows him to release both of his fastball variants from a 57-58 inch release height. Hopkins has all the ingredients to develop into another Rays trade and development success story. 

Jhancarlos Lara, RHP, Braves

Age: 21
Stuff+: 111

Lara’s stuff has never been a question. He pairs two pitches with well above-average stuff grades. Promoted to Double-A last week Lara’s debut was rocky, but he dominated over 15 appearances (14 starts) with High-A Rome. He pitched to a 3.92 ERA with a 3.74 FIP while striking out 26.2% or batters. His command is still very shaky but has shown signs of improvement. 

Lara mixes a four-seam fastball that sits 97-98 mph touching 101 mph with 6-feet-7 of extension, playing up his fastball plane despite a higher release height. His primary secondary is a low-90s cutter with power that generates whiffs at a rate north of 38%. Lara’s changeup is still developing and improving that pitch in the coming years could cement his place as a starter. Lara has some warts, but exciting stuff and potential. 

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Why Do MLB Pitchers Focus So Much On Velocity? How Fastball Data Explains Baseball’s Growing Search For Speed https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/why-do-mlb-pitchers-focus-so-much-on-velocity-how-fastball-data-explains-baseballs-growing-search-for-speed/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/why-do-mlb-pitchers-focus-so-much-on-velocity-how-fastball-data-explains-baseballs-growing-search-for-speed/#respond Wed, 21 Aug 2024 16:41:32 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1488402 J.J. Cooper takes a look into MLB and Triple-A data to find correlations between pitch velocity and at-bat outcomes.

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There seems to be a never-ending discussion among baseball fans that can be divided into two groups: Those who note how pitchers keep throwing harder and harder and those who decry the never-ending push for more velocity.

The first group’s argument can be summarized as follows: Velocity is vitally important, and pitchers who want to have MLB success are wise to push to throw as hard as they can.

And the second group’s argument: The never-ending chase for velocity is likely to blame for the ever-increasing rate of arm injuries, something that wasn’t as much of an issue when pitchers didn’t throw as hard.

Both sides have some valid points, and the argument isn’t going away any time soon. The charts we’ve compiled below may help to explain why the chase for velocity isn’t likely to disappear, even if it may increase injury risks.

What Are The Average Fastball Velocities Of Top MLB Prospects?

Earlier this year, Baseball America ranked the average fastball speeds of every pitching prospect in the Top 100.

Specifically, we’re using the excellent Baseball Savant tool to look at how MLB hitters have fared against four-seam fastballs divided into different velocity buckets so far in 2024. What we’re not looking at is how well each pitch is located, what the count was or how well the pitch moved. We’re only separating these pitches out by velocity.

As you may note below, the harder an MLB pitcher throws, the more effective his four-seam fastball is. It’s a relatively linear relationship. Overall, MLB hitters are hitting .244/.311/.401 with a 25.1% whiff rate this year, and the average velocity of a four-seam fastball is 94.2 mph. Hitters like to see fastballs, so against those four-seamers, MLB hitters are slashing better: .246/.334/.424 with a 21.7% whiff rate.

If a pitcher throws at or below the league-average four-seam fastball velocity, on average, they are giving up above-average production on those four-seamers. If they throw 95+ mph (which is above MLB average velocity), they are giving up below-average production on four-seam fastballs. And if they throw 100+ mph, hitters dread seeing their fastball.

Major League Four-Seam Data

Velocity
range
AVGobpslgopswhiff
rate
89-90 mph.290.369.539.90815.3
91-92 mph.267.344.487.83117.9
93-94 mph.250.344.438.78221.2
95-96 mph.241.328.411.73923.8
97-98 mph.209.293.336.62925.4
99-100 mph.184.282.267.54929.1
101-102 mph.143.236.214.45036.6

We can do the same for Triple-A pitchers’ four-seam fastballs in 2024.

Once again, we see a similar relationship: If you throw harder, you have more success. The only difference is we didn’t include 101-102 mph fastballs for Triple-A, as there have been less than a hundred thrown all season (pitchers who throw 102 mph don’t hang out in Triple-A very long). As one might expect, there was a much more statistically-robust total of 435 fastballs thrown at 101-102 mph for the major leagues.

Triple-A Four-Seam Data

Velocity
Range
AVGOBPSLUGOPSwhiff
rate
89-90 mph.310.417.547.96417.6
91-92 mph.281.398.481.87921.1
93-94 mph.272.393.453.84623.7
95-96 mph.250.365.414.77925.7
97-98 mph.232.364.355.71929.2
99-100 mph.168.289.211.50034.2

Again, this is only four-seam fastballs. But what if we looked at how hard pitchers threw their slider? We’re again not focused on how the pitches move, so we’re looking at all types of sliders: traditional, sweepers, gyro and all else.

In case that leads you another question, here’s the same breakdown for four-seam fastballs from MLB in 2009. MLB hitters showed similar degradations in production and increases in whiff rates as velocity climbed, and similar production against each fastball velocity bucket. But in 2009, only 6% of four-seam fastballs were 97+ mph. Now 17% of them are 97+ mph, so there are a lot more at-bats taking place in the higher ranges of these buckets.

2009
Velocity
Range
AVGOBPSLGOPSWhiff
Rate
89-90.297.387.515.90213.6
91-92.290.380.488.86814.8
93-94.274.363.446.80917
95-96.243.328.387.71519.3
97-98.238.316.361.67720.8
99-100.189.268.292.56026.3
101-102.118.250.118.36830.6

Major League Slider Data

Velocity
Range
AVGOBPSLGOPSwhiff
rate
81-82 mph.221.271.399.67031.3
83-84 mph.218.265.383.64833.4
85-86 mph.215.267.362.62932.7
87-88 mph.228.278.371.64934.5
89-90 mph.219.281.361.64236.7
91-92 mph.164.236.240.47637.6

The results aren’t as linear as the fastball velocity buckets, but other than 85-86 mph pitches having better results than 87-88 mph, there still is a definite improvement in results as velocity increases and swing-and-miss rates climb.

With changeups, however, there is no clear relationship between velocity and success. Changeups rely on movement, deception and in many cases, a velocity separation from a pitcher’s fastball. So, a pitcher who throws a hard changeup that lacks deception may not be benefiting from that velocity.

As you can see below, by not controlling for anything other than velocity, there does not seem to be any significant relationship between changeup velocity and the pitch’s effectiveness.

Major League Changeup Data

Velocity
Range
AVGOPBSLGOPSWHIFF
RATE
79-80 mph.239.287.405.69232.4
81-82 mph.221.265.365.63030.9
83-84 mph.238.284.405.68931.3
85-86 mph.233.275.368.64332.1
87-88 mph.231.275.374.64931.1
89-90 mph.210.252.320.57231.1
91-92 mph.229.282.328.61030.2

So what does it all mean?

Throwing harder, especially when it comes to fastballs, leads to more success for MLB pitchers. If you throw harder, hitters have less time to react, and that makes a hitters’ job tougher. It sounds simple, because it is.

But it’s a simple truth that many baseball fans seem to struggle to accept.

The post Why Do MLB Pitchers Focus So Much On Velocity? How Fastball Data Explains Baseball’s Growing Search For Speed appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Travis Bazzana’s Hitting Blueprint: Art, Science And Some Juan Soto Inspiration https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/travis-bazzanas-hitting-blueprint-art-science-and-some-juan-soto-inspiration/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/travis-bazzanas-hitting-blueprint-art-science-and-some-juan-soto-inspiration/#respond Wed, 21 Aug 2024 15:14:32 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1487577 No. 1 overall MLB draft pick Travis Bazzana leads a deep dive into his approach to hitting and training for professional baseball.

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Hitting is an art form. And to Guardians’ No. 1 prospect Travis Bazzana, it’s an art form backed by science. 

“Mentally and movement-wise, I’d say it’s an art to be a good hitter,” Bazzana said, “but there’s ways that you can back art with science.” 

For those who know Bazzana and have seen him train, they understand it’s this mentality that’s taken the Australia native from unsigned international prospect to college baseball standout to being the No. 1 pick in this past July’s MLB draft.

For Bazzana, it’s a mix of art, science and a unique perspective. 

“Everyone does art different,” he said. “You go to a museum and there’s paintings where you feel like, ‘I could paint that,’ but there’s something special about it. Then there’s certain paintings and you’re like ‘Wow, I’ve never seen that before.'” 

This is where the objective eye of science defines what works and why. Bazzana’s understanding of balancing the two has led him to develop into one of the top hitting prospects in baseball and a success story for future generations of Australian players to follow. 

“The science becomes the objective part,” Bazzana said. “Where a lot of good artists do the same things but in different ways.”

Hitting Art Vs. Science

This is the convergence point where the art of hitting meets the science. The discipline of becoming a great hitter takes effort and a keen sense of one’s identity. Traits and styles are based on how one moves and how a player nurtures that identity based on natural, God-given talents. 

“A lot of hitting skill is built at a pretty young age,” Bazzana said. “So we ingrain these habits of movement and hand-eye coordination when we first pick up a bat; that’s what your brain knows. So when you try to move like someone else it’s almost like learning a new skill even if it’s the same game.”

Genetics plays a role, too, Bazzana explained.

“Some guys are bigger and more mobile, others are bigger and less mobile,” he said. “Some are small and twitchy and really tight movers. There’s going to be different movement patterns. Are they loose? Are they fluid? Are they dominant in rotation? Or are they just leg power? There’s all these different things that equate to being a great hitter.” 

The search to develop an identity as a hitter is based on these traits. However, it’s the pursuit of expanding upon one’s identity through such work that ultimately forges great hitters in the major leagues. According to Bazzana, being a great hitter means constantly adjusting, refining his swing and expanding his abilities. In an age when everyone is searching for a magic pill, it comes down to the work one puts forth in trying to “find that next gear.”

“That’s the amazing part about hitting and baseball,” Bazzana said. “People do it in such different ways. Everyone wants to find one magic pill. At the end of the day when it comes down to movement.

“There is no magic pill.”

Learning From The Best

The question that plagues many baseball fans and evaluators is what to look for when defining great hitters. What do the best hitters do well and why? When we look at the art of hitting, who are the masters? What do they do that makes them so successful?

Bazzana sees one particular trait that separates the greats from just-good hitters.

“Often, one of the first things I’ll pick up is how well the body and the barrel match the plane of the pitch,” he said. “The best hitters posturally match the angle of the pitch with the plane of their upper half and the barrel. Connected is the term that people use. The barrel gets deeper into the zone for certain guys and it stays on the plane of the pitch.”

In an age where we have measurements for everything, angles and swing path have become a bigger part of the conversation. In this pursuit to optimize angles, Bazzana explained how he draws inspiration from a notable name. 

“The best example I give is Juan Soto,” he said. “His bat is connected behind his back shoulder and he sets that posture to the angle of the pitch. He matches the plane and he squares the ball up to all parts of the field … It’s why he’s as efficient as he is and why he’s in the zone for so long.”

Seeing Bazzana draw inspiration from a player like Soto shouldn’t come as a shock. While Bazzana hasn’t shown that same kind of power, there’s a common thread connecting their games: strong swing decisions.

That advanced plate approach was developed during Bazzana’s time spent at Oregon State. He described himself as “an average swing decisions guy” as a freshman with the Beavers in 2022, but over his final two college seasons, Bazzana walked 135 times, second behind only Athletics first-round pick Nick Kurtz.

“For me, my pitch recognition and swing decisions stem from reps,” he said. “Years of seeing a ball, hitting it, making a decision.”

Bazzana is accurate in his depiction of his advancement between his freshman and sophomore seasons at Oregon State. In 2022, he chased at a rate of 20.6% with a swing rate of 42.2%. A year later, his chase rate dropped to 15.5% while also cutting his swing rate to 36.1%. Those metrics dropped even further in 2024 to a 14.3% chase and a 32.7% swing rate.

During that summer heading into his sophomore year, Bazzana was at a crossroads. He’d shown strong plate skills, but his swing decisions and impact needed improvement. That is when the artist leaned on science to challenge his identity and expand his his future as a hitter. 

“A lot of hitters with good whiff rates, they often have a great ability to have good swing decisions,” Bazzana explained. “I think they have good hand-eye, they pick things up sooner. But in this game, I think guys with high contact rates get caught up on this identity that they can’t strike out. They can’t swing and miss, and so they want to put the ball in play. That will work for some guys but not for others. This is where swing decisions come from an approach and the coordination of it. Not everyone can have great decisions but it’s being stubborn to your zones, your locations and where you think you can do damage.” 

Bazzana again took cues from Juan Soto and his ability to not only draw walks at a high rate, but hit for power, as well.

“You dive in and you realize he’s tunneling certain zones or certain pitch types almost all the time,” Bazzana said of Soto. “He’s very stubborn, he’s okay taking the edge strike often. He’s okay with a looking strikeout that clips the edge. He knows 90% of the time that’s ball four. Over time, you realize the power of swing, no swing.” 

The application of science and tracking also comes into play for Bazzana, who said he uses technologically-advanced batting cage set-ups like HitTrax, iPitch and Trajekt for nearly all his training. Whether in the midst of his in-season cage work, offseason training or in-game performance, more information is better. 

“That’s where the ability of understanding the zone better often comes from,” he said. “Also paying attention to the Trackman report postgame. I go in after a game, and I know I swung at an edge pitch. Where was that pitch actually? Then you start to grasp, okay, that was an inch off. Over time you start to have a feel for the zone.”

Three Stats For Hitting Success

When asked which metrics he follows most closely and which he feels align with his performance, Bazzana pointed to a trio of data points: in-zone fastball swing rate, air pull percentage and 90th percentile exit velocity.

“Understanding that the fastball is your best chance to do damage,” Bazzana said of his approach. “I want to be swinging at fastballs in the zone, especially hard fastballs.”

Pulling those types of pitches in the air is an especially important skill for players who aren’t Aaron Judge-sized.

“For someone who’s not 6-foot-7 or 250 pounds, there’s power in hitting the ball to the short porch and doing it often,” said Bazzana, who measures at 6-feet, 200 pounds. “Some of the best hitters in the big leagues the last five to ten years aren’t the big humans like Judge, (Giancarlo) Stanton, (Yordan) Alvarez. It’s Mookie (Betts), it’s Jose Ramirez, it’s (Alex) Bregman. These guys are all incredible at pulling the ball in the air. When they square it up, they can fly it true to the pull side whether it’s at 99 mph or 102 mph.”

And that’s where Bazzana’s final key metric comes into play.

“I think 90th percentile exit velocity is huge,” he said. “You look at the highest in terms of that metric versus the lowest. Players who hit the ball hard and get to power more often produce the most.”

Training For Speed

Hitting the ball hard was not something that naturally came to Bazzana, who has trained to add bat speed dating back to his time in Australia. Before he had access to top facilities and specially-tailored overspeed equipment like Driveline’s Overload and Underload bats, he used his own intuition and a do-it-yourself attitude to train.

“It was like ‘Why don’t we make do,'” Bazzana said, explaining how, as a teenager, he and his father constructed their own equipment. “I got an old bat, and we put coins all in different spots and it became 37 to 40 ounces. We swung that and then found the lightest drop-five or drop-eight bat in the clubhouse at our field and that was my underload.”

Nowadays, Bazzana works extensively with the real-deal Driveline bats, which have been staples of his training since coming over to the United States.

In the summer heading into his sophomore year at Oregon State, Bazzana went to Driveline headquarters for the first time, spending ten weeks there to build the batspeed that grew over his final two collegiate seasons. The added impact was the final piece to the puzzle that saw Bazzana ascend to the top pick in the 2024 draft.

Looking at one of his self-proclaimed important metrics, Bazzana’s 90th percentile exit velocity jumped from 101.4 mph in 2022 to 105.9 mph in 2023 to 108.9 mph in his draft season. The results translated from a .348 expected wOBA on contact in 2022 to a mark that ballooned to .521 in 2024. 

With a lifetime of training and now his first few weeks of professional baseball experience behind him, Bazzana continues to be prepared for the challenge and work it takes to be a great professional hitter. 

The post Travis Bazzana’s Hitting Blueprint: Art, Science And Some Juan Soto Inspiration appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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College Baseball’s Scholarship Conundrum, Chandler Simpson’s Historic Year | Hot Sheet Show Ep. 21 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/college-baseballs-scholarship-conundrum-chandler-simpsons-historic-year-hot-sheet-show-ep-21/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/college-baseballs-scholarship-conundrum-chandler-simpsons-historic-year-hot-sheet-show-ep-21/#respond Tue, 20 Aug 2024 21:09:50 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1487602 Chandler Simpson and Craig Yoho have the Hot Sheet Show's attention, plus a deep dive on the state of high school recruiting.

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Today’s Hot Sheet Show dives deep on a pair of under-the-radar prospects in extremely smart organizations who could soon make big league impacts. We also welcome Matt Pajak of the 90th Percentile Podcast to explain the current crisis facing high school baseball seniors as college baseball’s recruiting landscape transforms in an era of 34 scholarships and the transfer portal.

(0:00) J.J. defends one-knee catching
(3:15) Can Chandler Simpson steal 100 bases in the big leagues one day? 
(10:30) Brewers reliever Craig Yoho has a ridiculous changeup
(16:00) Is this the worst time ever to be a senior high school baseball player? 
(20:00) How will teams allocate their transfer and NIL resources? 

We stream the Hot Sheet Show every Tuesday at 3 p.m. ET on YouTube. You can also listen to the show wherever you get your podcasts!

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How Are 2024 MLB Draft First-Round Picks Faring So Far? https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-are-2024-mlb-draft-first-round-picks-faring-so-far/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-are-2024-mlb-draft-first-round-picks-faring-so-far/#respond Tue, 20 Aug 2024 16:30:34 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1487519 Notable assignments for 2024 first-rounders, plus five debuts beyond the first round worth keeping an eye on.

The post How Are 2024 MLB Draft First-Round Picks Faring So Far? appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Below we take a look at the early assignments for each of the first-rounders from the 2024 draft class. Many players have not yet been activated to start their pro careers—high schoolers and pitchers in general—so this piece mainly focuses on college hitters.

It’s worth noting that all players below are still working with extremely small sample sizes. Still, it’s worthwhile to check on how the top-ranked names are doing early on.

We also mention five notable debut performances beyond the first round.


1. Travis Bazzana, 2B, Guardians

Assignment: Lake County (High-A, Midwest League)

Performance: .256/.418/.442, 10 BB, 17 K, 1 HR, 5 2B, 152 wRC+

The first overall pick was assigned to Lake County where he tallied hits in six of his first 13 games. He managed a three-hit effort a few nights ago that featured three of his five total doubles and has played each game at second base. Bazzana has been one of the more passive first-round hitters in the minors so far with a 37.6% swing rate, though that’s right in line with his college numbers.

2. Chase Burns, RHP, Reds

Assignment: ACL Reds (rookie ball, Arizona Complex League)

Performance: No games 

3. Charlie Condon, OF, Rockies

Assignment: Spokane (High-A, Northwest League)

Performance: .205/.279/.333, 2 BB, 15 K, 1 HR, 2 2B, 75 wRC+

Condon turned in a four-hit effort in just his second game with Spokane, but since then he’s gone just 4-for-30 (.133) with a single extra-base hit. His 15 strikeouts and 34.9% strikeout rate are the highest of any first-round hitter, as is his 41.8% miss rate. Condon has played five games in left field, three at designated hitter and two at third base.

4. Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics

Assignment: Stockton (Low-A, California League), Midland (Double-A, Texas League)

Performance: .400/.571/.960, 10 BB, 7 K, 4 HR, 2 2B, 273 wRC+

Kurtz torched California League pitching through seven games and quickly earned a promotion to Double-A Midland—making him the third* player from the 2024 class to reach that level after Christian Moore and David Mershon. He walked more than he struck out in seven games, homered four times and added two doubles with a 90th-percentile exit velocity of 109.4 mph and max exit velocity of 113.4 mph.

*Editor’s note: We originally stated Kurtz was the second player from the class to reach Double-A. That has been corrected.

5. Hagen Smith, LHP, White Sox

Assignment: ACL White Sox (rookie ball, Arizona Complex League)

Performance: No games

Smith has been ramping up in Arizona and will join High-A Winston-Salem’s roster this week ahead of a potential debut on Saturday, according to MLB.com’s Scott Merkin.

6. Jac Caglianone, TWP, Royals

Assignment: Quad Cities (High-A, Midwest League)

Performance: .211/.348/.395, 6 BB, 12 K, 2 HR, 1 2B, 113 wRC+

Caglianone has exclusively played first base and designated hitter so far in his 11-game pro career. That’s expected, and we’ll probably need to wait for the 2025 season to see how the Royals plan to use Caglianone on the mound. He has continued to chase out of the zone at a high clip (40.9% chase) but hit the ball extremely hard when he connects (110.3 mph 90th, 114 mph max) and has made a ton of contact inside the zone (14.6% in-zone miss). 

7. JJ Wetherholt, SS, Cardinals

Assignment: Palm Beach (Low-A, Florida State League)

Performance: .255/.418/.353, 12 BB, 5 K, 1 HR, 2 2B, 134 wRC+

Wetherholt has shown the best pure batting eye of first-round hitters with any reasonable sample of games at this rate. His 12 walks are second to only Yankees outfielder Brendan Jones among 2024 draftees, and his 10.3% chase rate is the best mark among first round 2024 drafted hitters. His overall miss and in-zone miss rates have also been strong. Wetherholt has played three games as a designated hitter but all of his playing time in the field has come at shortstop.

8. Christian Moore, 2B, Angels

Assignment: Inland Empire (Low-A, California League), Rocket City (Double-A, Southern League)

Performance: .414/.469/.776, 6 BB, 15 K, 6 HR, 3 2B, (307 wRC+ Low-A, 238 wRC+ Double-A)

Moore has been the most impressive 2024 prospect to debut in the minors to this point. He spent just two games in Low-A with Inland Empire before the Angels pushed him to Double-A Rocket City, where he’s slashed .383/.442/.723 with five home runs in 12 games. Moore’s six homers leads 2024 draftees so far and he’s shown an impressive combination of swing decisions and impact.

9. Konnor Griffin, SS, Pirates

Assignment: FCL Pirates (rookie ball, Florida Complex League)

Performance: No games

10. Seaver King, SS, Nationals

Assignment: Fredericksburg (Low-A, Carolina League)

Performance: .238/.273/.333, 0 BB, 5 K, 0 HR, 0 2B, 78 wRC+

King has only played five games with Fredericksburgh but he started off strong with back-to-back two-hit games. King has been one of the most free-swinging hitters among first round 2024 draftees in this admittedly tiny sample with a 56.1% overall swing rate and 42.9% chase rate that is one of the most aggressive of this group of players.

11. Bryce Rainer, SS, Tigers

Assignment: FCL Tigers (rookie ball, Florida Complex League)

Performance: No games

12. Braden Montgomery, OF, Red Sox

Assignment: FCL Red Sox (rookie ball, Florida Complex League)

Performance: No games

13. James Tibbs, OF, Giants

Assignment: San Jose (Low-A, California League)

Performance: .415/.429/.512, 1 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 4 2B, 154 wRC+

Tibbs was drafted as a bat-first position player with a corner profile and has played each game in the field in right while tallying hits in eight of his first nine games. He’s stacked seven consecutive multi-hit games at San Jose and might have a hit tool that’s simply too advanced for the level, though his modest impact numbers will be something to monitor moving forward considering the offensive bar he’ll need to clear.

14. Cam Smith, 3B, Cubs

Assignment: Myrtle Beach (Low-A, Carolina League)

Performance: .154/.267/.269, 4 BB, 10 K, 0 HR, 1 2B, 65 wRC+

Smith was one of the 2024 draft’s most improved hitters from the 2023 spring to 2024, but he has struggled in his first eight games in the Carolina League. He’s managed hits in just three games and has struck out at a 33.3% clip. His in-zone miss rate has been one of the highest among first-round draftees with a 33.3% mark so far.

15. Jurrangelo Cijntje, SHP, Mariners

Assignment: ACL Mariners (rookie ball, Arizona Complex League)

Performance: No games

16. PJ Morlando, OF, Marlins

Assignment: Jupiter (Low-A, Florida State League)

Performance: .000/.000/.000, 0 BB, 0 K, 0 HR, 0 2B, -100 wRC+

Morlando was one of the few high school players selected in the first round this year to actually get into pro games, but he tallied just one at-bat before a lumbar stress reaction ended his season. He’ll get back to work in 2025.

17. Braylon Payne, OF, Brewers

Assignment: ACL Brewers (rookie ball, Arizona Complex League)

Performance: No games

18. Theo Gillen, OF, Rays

Assignment: FCL Rays (rookie ball, Florida Complex League)

Performance: No games

19. Carson Benge, OF, Mets

Assignment: St. Lucie (Low-A, Florida State League)

Performance: .400/.700/.400, 4 BB, 3 K, 0 HR, 0 2B, 248 wRC+

Benge has only played in two games so far in the Florida State League but he managed hits in both and added four walks for good measure. In both games he played as the team’s designated hitter.

20. Trey Yesavage, RHP, Blue Jays

Assignment: FCL Blue Jays (rookie ball, Florida Complex League)

Performance: No games

21. Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Twins

Assignment: Fort Myers (Low-A, Florida State League)

Performance: .297/.366/.541, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 HR, 3 2B, 156 wRC+

Culpepper has shown excellent bat-to-ball skills through his first nine pro games with some of the best contact numbers of the first-round 2024 hitters. Culpepper has spent most of his time at shortstop when he’s played the field but he does have a single game at third base, which could be a real defensive home for him as well. 

22. Vance Honeycutt, OF, Orioles

Assignment: FCL Orioles (rookie ball, Florida Complex League)

Performance: No games

23. Kellon Lindsey, SS, Dodgers

Assignment: ACL Dodgers (rookie ball, Arizona Complex League)

Performance: No games

24. Cam Caminiti, LHP, Braves

Assignment: FCL Braves (rookie ball, Florida Complex League)

Performance: No games

25. Kash Mayfield, LHP, Padres

Assignment: ACL Padres (rookie ball, Arizona Complex League)

Performance: No games

26. Ben Hess, RHP, Yankees

Assignment: FCL Yankees (rookie ball, Florida Complex League)

Performance: No games

27. Dante Nori, OF, Phillies

Assignment: Clearwater (Low-A, Florida State League)

Performance: .200/.368/.333, 4 BB, 6 K, 0 HR, 0 2B, 112 wRC+

With Morlando dealing with an injury, Nori is the sole representative of the high school class among first-rounders in the minors so far. Perhaps the Phillies are being more aggressive with Nori than their peers given his age, as Nori will turn 20 in early October. He’s played in just four games with Low-A Clearwater but has shown a solid approach with some swing-and-miss while playing both center and left field. 

28. Walker Janek, C, Astros

Assignment: Asheville (High-A, South Atlantic League)

Performance: .211/.250/.342, 2 BB, 10 K, 1 HR, 2 2B, 68 wRC+

Through 10 games with High-A Asheville, Janek has been the most aggressive first-round hitter with a 47.5% chase rate that tops other free swingers like Seaver King and Jac Caglianone. With 10 strikeouts and just two walks, Janek will need to hone in the offensive approach, but he’s wasted no time showing off his arm behind the dish, with eight runners caught stealing in 15 total attempts against him—a 53% caught stealing rate.

29. Slade Caldwell, OF, D-backs

Assignment: ACL D-backs (rookie ball, Arizona Complex League)

Performance: No games

30. Malcolm Moore, C, Rangers

Assignment: Hickory (High-A, South Atlantic League)

Performance: .138/.265/.207, 2 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 2 2B, 50 wRC+

Moore has played in nine games with High-A Hickory this summer and started his first six games slowly when he went just 1-for-19 (.053). His most recent three-game stretch has been a bit better, as he’s hit in each game and gone 3-for-10 (.300) overall with a triple. Moore has stayed within the zone on his swing decisions but his 35.9% overall miss rate is a bit high and he’s also caught just 1-of-11 base stealers (9% caught stealing) in five games behind the plate. 


Five Notables Beyond The First Round

Derek Clark, LHP, Angels (9th round)

Assignment: Inland Empire (Low-A, California League)

Performance: 8 IP, 4 GS, 1.13 ERA, 10 K, 0 BB

A later draft date means most teams have become pretty conservative in how they activate and use their recently drafted pitchers. The Angels are built differently though. Clark leads all draftees with eight innings pitched and with 10 strikeouts. He’s started four games and gone just two innings in each and has yet to allow a walk while sitting around 90 mph with his fastball. 

Cole Tolbert, RHP, Red Sox (18th round)

Assignment: Salem (Low-A, Carolina League)

Performance: 4 IP, 2 GS, 2.25 ERA, 9 K, 0 BB

Tolbert was an 18th round selection out of Ole Miss who struggled during the spring out of the bullpen but pitched well in a starting role in the Northwoods League before the draft. In two starts with Low-A Salem, Tolbert has struck out nine without walking a batter while sitting in the 90-93 mph range with his fastball that has played up so far and mixing in a low-80s curveball and sweeper slider.

Jack Costello, 1B/3B/OF, Padres (10th round)

Assignment: Lake Elsinore (Low-A, California League)

Performance: .326/.407/.674, 4 BB, 3 K, 4 HR, 4 2B, 175 wRC+

Costello trails only Christian Moore with 31 total bases among 2024 draftees through his first 11 games with Low-A Lake Elsinore. He signed for just $10,000 in the 10th round as a senior sign but has shown excellent contact skills and surprisingly impressive top-end exit velocity marks so far. He has mostly split time between third base and first base so far but also has a game under his belt in right field. Costello is a 23-year-old in Low-A, but it’s a strong start.

Ian Petrutz, OF, Cardinals (10th round)

Assignment: Palm Beach (Low-A, Florida State League)

Performance: .396/.532/.521, 9 BB, 4 K, 0 HR, 4 2B, 207 wRC+

Petrutz signed for $250,000 in the 12th round out of Alabama and throughout his college career stood out for his plate discipline—a trait the Cardinals prioritize. He has continued to walk more than he has struck out in pro ball through 15 games with a 21.5% chase rate and excellent 9.3% in-zone miss rate. 

Brendan Jones, OF, Yankees (12th round)

Assignment: Tampa (Low-A, Florida State League)

Performance: .321/.537/.536, 13 BB, 8 K, 1 HR, 3 2B, 209 wRC+

If walks are your thing, look no further than Yankees 12th-rounder Brendan Jones, an outfielder who signed for $150,000 and leads all 2024 draftees with 13 free passes. His 4.2% chase rate tops even the impressive mark mentioned above for JJ Wetherholt and his 31.7% walk rate is the best mark of any 2024 hitter with at least 25 plate appearances so far. All nine of his games with Tampa so far have come in center field. 

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Minor League Baseball Stats: Who Is Leading Major Categories? https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/minor-league-baseball-stats-who-is-leading-major-categories/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/minor-league-baseball-stats-who-is-leading-major-categories/#respond Tue, 20 Aug 2024 15:17:37 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1486706 With the 2024 season winding down, we take a look at MiLB's hitting and pitching leaders in key stat categories.

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With just three weeks left to play in Class A, four weeks left in Double-A and a little over a month to go in Triple-A, here’s a look at which minor leaguers are on pace to lead MiLB in major hitting and pitching categories.

Hitting Statistics

Stolen Bases

What Rays outfielder Chandler Simpson is doing this year is something we haven’t seen since Billy Hamilton ran wild through the minors. Simpson averages .91 steals per game and his 83 stolen bases are 23 more than anyone else in MiLB. With 24 games remaining in the Double-A Montgomery season, he’s on pace to steal 105 bases. A promotion to Triple-A would give him time to steal a few more.

It has to be noted that the rules have been liberalized to encourage stealing. But if Simpson reaches 100 steals, he’ll be the first since Hamilton stole an MiLB-record 155 bags in 2012 and Delino DeShields Jr. stole 101 that same year. Hamilton also stole 103 in 2011, and no one else has topped the century mark since Chris Morris stole 111 in 2001 and Esix Snead stole 109 in 2000.

2024 MiLB Best Tools: Managers Vote On The Top Prospects

Which minor leaguers were recognized for having the loudest scouting tools across all full-season levels in 2024?

Simpson led the minors last year as well (his 94 steals were tied with his friend Victor Scott for the 2023 lead). Barring something shocking, Simpson will become the first two-time MiLB stolen base champ since Hamilton. No one else has led the minors in steals twice in the past 45 years.

PlayerStolen BasesOrganization
Chandler Simpson83Rays
Enrique Bradfield61Orioles
Jonah Cox57Giants
Yhoswar Garcia55Brewers
Seth Stephenson54Tigers
Dylan O’Rae53Brewers
Caleb Ketchup53Angels
Justin Dean50Braves
Nick Morabito50Mets
Tavian Josenberger49Orioles

Batting Average

In additional to his eye-popping steal numbers, Simpson is also hitting .362, which means he currently leads fellow Rays first baseman/outfielder Tre’ Morgan by four percentage points in the MiLB batting race. Further away, Red Sox first baseman/catcher Mickey Gasper is third at .341 and fellow Boston infielder Kristian Campbell is fourth at .340. 

Simpson’s season is remarkable here, as well. If he wins the MiLB batting title, he will become the first player to win both an MiLB batting title and an NCAA Division I batting title since 1980 (which is how far back BA’s records on MiLB batting champs go).

In case you are wondering, there is one NCAA D-I batting champ who won an MLB batting crown: Buster Posey, who led D-I in 2008 and the NL in 2012. And there’s one MiLB batting champ who went on to win MLB batting titles: Jose Altuve, who led MiLB in 2011 and the AL in 2014, 2016 and 2017.

PlayerAverageOrganization
Chandler Simpson.358Rays
Demetrio Crisantes.355D-Backs
Tre’ Morgan.354Rays
Mickey Gasper.341Red Sox
Kristian Campbell.339Red Sox
Mike Boeve.338Brewers
Nick Allen.338Athletics
Spencer Horwitz.335Blue Jays
Coco Montes.335Rockies
Keaton Anthony.334Phillies

Home Runs

Recently-acquired Marlins first baseman Deyvison De Los Santos leads the minors with 34 home runs. He has a solid shot at 40 home runs. If De Los Santos goes on a late-season tear, he could reach 42 home runs, which would be the most in the minors since Kris Bryant hit 43 in 2014. Triple-A Memphis first baseman Luken Baker is only two home runs behind him at 32. Baker has yet to win a MiLB home run title, but he came very close last year, and he’s now hit 86 home runs in Triple-A in the past three seasons.

PlayerHome RunsOrganization
Deyvison De Los Santos34D-Backs/Marlins
Luken Baker32Cardinals
Ryan Ward29Dodgers
Kyle Garlick25Diamondbacks
Keston Hiura25Tigers/Angels
Shay Whitcomb25Astros
Colby Thomas24Athletics
Adrian Del Castillo24Diamondbacks
Travis Blankenhorn24Nationals
6 others tied23

RBIs

De Los Santos also leads in RBIs (100) and assuming he doesn’t get a callup to the majors, his seven RBI lead is a little safer than his two-home run lead. Triple-A D-Backs outfielder Kyle Garlick (93), High-A Everett outfielder Lazaro Montes (92) and recently-called-up Astros’ outfielder Shay Whitcomb (91) are also within range.

PlayerHome RunsOrganization
Deyvison De Los Santos100Marlins
Kyle Garlick93Diamondbacks
Lazaro Montes92Mariners
Shay Whitcomb91Astros
Jason Vosler88Mariners
Ryan Ward87Dodgers
C.J. Kayfus86Guardians
Andres Chaparro85Nationals
Luke Ritter81Mets
Luken Baker79Cardinals
Andy Garriola79Cubs
Will Simpson79Athletics

On-Base Percentage

Mickey Gasper is one of the standout success stories of the 2024 MiLB season. A MiLB Rule 5 pick last offseason, he’s been one of the best hitters in the minors this year. His .458 on-base percentage leads the minors by 10 points over High-A Brewers third baseman Luke Adams (.448). Two other Red Sox prospects– Campbell (.444) and Chase Meidroth (.445)–are right behind.

PlayerOn-Base PercentageOrganization
Mickey Gasper.458Red Sox
Luke Adams.448Brewers
Demetrio Crisantes.445Diamondbacks
Chase Meidroth.445Red Sox
Kristian Campbell.444Red Sox
Payton Eeles.444Twins
Cooper Ingle.433Guardians
Will Wagner.432Blue Jays
Tre’ Morgan.431Rays
Carlos Jimenez.431Mariners

Slugging Percentage

Orioles third baseman Coby Mayo has been sent back to the minors, but he had already enough plate appearances to qualify for the slugging crown even if he had remained in the majors the rest of the year. His .619 slugging percentage leads De Los Santos (.618) and D-Backs catcher Adrian Del Castillo (.608).

PlayerSlugging PercentageOrganization
Coby Mayo.619Orioles
Deyvison De Los Santos.618Marlins
Adrian Del Castillo.608D-Backs
Ryan Ward.604Dodgers
Jhostynxon Garcia.581Red Sox
Matthew Lugo.578Red Sox
Jhonkensy Noel.578Guardians
Willie MacIver.574Rockies
Kristian Campbell.572Red Sox
Andres Chaparro.572Nationals

OPS

Campbell is among the top 10 in batting average and on-base percentage and slugging percentage, so his well-rounded game means he leads the minors with a 1.022 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS). Gasper (1.117) is right behind him, while Del Castillo (1.011) and Mayo (1.003) are also above 1.000.

PlayerOPSOrganization
Mickey Gasper1.017Red Sox
Kristian Campbell1.017Red Sox
Adrian Del Castillo1.010D-Backs
Coby Mayo1.003Orioles
Deyvison De Los Santos.987Marlins
Andres Chaparro.977Nationals
Coco Montes.965Rockies
Carlos Jimenez.962Mariners
Otto Kemp.961Phillies
Willie MacIver.959Rockies

Hits

In addition to batting average and stolen bases, Chandler Simpson’s 136 hits is tops in the minors. Simpson is having quite the year, as should be obvious by now. Rockies third baseman Kyle Karros (133) and Nationals infielder Andres Chaparro (132) trail closely behind.

PlayerHitsOrganization
Chandler Simpson136Rays
Kyle Karros133Rockies
Andres Chaparro132Nationals
Deyvison De Los Santos131Marlins
Angel Genao130Guardians
Andy Perez129Rockies
Javier Sanoja128Marlins
Andre Lipcius128Dodgers
Albert Almora128Diamondbacks
Adrian Del Castillo126Diamondbacks
Kristian Campbell122Red Sox

Extra-Base Hits

A’s outfielder Colby Thomas has 64 extra-base hits for Amarillo and Las Vegas, which is one more than Del Castillo’s 63.

PlayerExtra-Base HitsOrganization
Colby Thomas64Athletics
Adrian Del Castillo63Diamondbacks
Ryan Ward61Dodgers
Deyvison De Los Santos56Marlins
Andres Chaparro51Nationals
Luken Baker50Cardinals
Coby Mayo50Orioles
Jared Serna50Yankees
Joe Mack49Marlins
Jesus Bastidas49Astros
Kyle Garlick49Diamondbacks
Kristian Campbell49Red Sox

Total Bases

De Los Santos’ excellent season also has him running away with the total bases crown.

PlayerTotal BasesOrganization
Deyvison De Los Santos257Marlins
Adrian Del Castillo240Diamondbacks
Colby Thomas231Athletics
Andres Chaparro230Nationals
Ryan Ward227Dodgers
Shay Whitcomb219Astros
Andre Lipcius218Dodgers
Kyle Garlick217Diamondbacks
Kyle Karros210Rockies
Jason Vosler209Mariners
Tim Tawa209Diamondbacks

Runs

White Sox Class A second baseman/outfielder Rikuu Nishida’s 94 runs scored are six more than anyone else.

PlayerRunsOrganization
Rikuu Nishida94White Sox
Drew Avans88Dodgers
Michael Arroyo88Mariners
Adrian Del Castillo86Diamondbacks
Alex Freeland83Dodgers
Luisangel Acuna81Mets
Henry Bolte80Athletics
Braylen Wimmer80Rockies
Luke Keaschall80Twins
Kyle Garlick79Diamondbacks

Pitching Statistics

Earned Run Average

Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson is having a storybook season.

PlayerERAOrganization
Matthew Wilkinson1.84Guardians
David Davalillo1.85Rangers
Brad Lord1.99Nationals
Sean Sullivan2.03Rockies
Brandyn Garcia2.05Mariners
Andrew Morris2.16Twins
Carlson Reed2.19Pirates
Lucas Gordon2.30White Sox
Jake Brooks2.34Marlins
Quinn Mathews2.34Cardinals
Ethan Bosacker2.40Royals

Wins

Robert Kwiatkowski, Austin Peterson and Robinson Pina are all tied for the wins lead with 12. That’s right on pace with recent trends. Keider Montero’s 15 wins led the minors in 2023, while Taylor Dollard’s 16 wins in 2022 is the most since 2017 when Zack Littell won 19.

PlayerWinsOrganization
Robinson Pina12Phillies
Robert Kwiatkowski12Red Sox
Austin Peterson12Guardians
Jared Kollar11Padres
Chad Patrick11Brewers
Ethan Bosacker11Royals
Welinton Herrera10Rockies
Ryan Garcia10Rangers
Michael Morales10Mariners
Yujanyer Herrera10Rockies
Brad Lord10Nationals
Andry Lara10Nationals
Connor Noland10Cubs
Blake Beers10Athletics
Isaac Coffey10Red Sox
Trenton Denholm10Guardians

Strikeouts

Cardinals lefthander Quinn Mathews began the season by dominating Low-A. He was quickly bumped up to High-A, where he remained just as dominant. A subsequent promotion to Double-A hasn’t slowed him down either. His 168 strikeouts lead Wilkinson by 12.

PlayerStrikeoutsOrganization
Quinn Mathews168Cardinals
Matthew Wilkinson156Guardians
Parker Messick142Guardians
Chayce McDermott139Orioles
Chase Dollander139Rockies
Austin Peterson136Guardians
Jonah Tong134Mets
Miguel Ullola133Astros
Carson Ragsdale132Giants
Jackson Nezuh132Astros
Kohl Drake131Rangers

Saves

Being an MiLB closer isn’t a great sign for long-term MLB success, but it is a sign of durability and effectiveness in the minors. Triple-A Sugar Land closer Wander Suero (Astros) has 28 saves, which already is the most of the 2020s, and has him on track to be the first closer to top 30 MiLB saves since Aaron Barnett saved 31 in 2019. After Suero, no one has more than Double-A Springfield closer Matt Svanson’s (Cardinals) 22.

PlayerSavesOrganization
Wander Suero28Astros
Matt Svanson22Cardinals
Troy Taylor21Mariners
Rico Garcia17Nationals
Camden Minacci17Angels
Tony Santillan16Reds
Austin Roberts15Marlins
Justin Yeager14Brewers
Zach Agnos14Rockies
Felix Cepeda13Red Sox
Magnus Ellerts13Guardians
Max Lazar13Phillies
Lucas Wepf13Dodgers
Ryan Loutos13Cardinals

Innings Pitched

Guardians’ Double-A Akron righthander Austin Peterson has thrown 138 innings. That’s a very modest number, but with how teams’ restrict young pitchers’ workloads, that leads the minors.

PlayerInnings PitchedOrganization
Austin Peterson138Guardians
Casey Lawrence131.2Mariners
Zach Messinger127.3Yankees
Michael McGreevy127Cardinals
John Bertrand125.2Giants
Juan Mercedes122Mariners
Caden Dana121.2Angels
Gunnar Hoglund121.2Athletics
Michael Morales121Mariners
Kyle Luckham120Nationals
Blake Beers120Athletics

Strikeout Percentage

We took a look at Craig Yoho’s changeup in Monday’s Statcast Standouts. His current 47.1% is the highest in a MiLB season since Indigo Diaz’s 47.4% in 2021.

PlayerStrikeout PercentageOrganization
Craig Yoho47.12Brewers
Kai Peterson41.50Blue Jays
Edgardo Henriquez41.30Dodgers
Anderson Brito41.10Astros
Luis Peralta40.44Rockies
Joseph Ingrassia40.38Red Sox
Matthew Wilkinson39.10Guardians
Owen Murphy38.71Braves
Travis Sykora38.70Nationals
Zach Maxwell38.33Reds
Minimum 40 IP

Walk Percentage

Sann Omosako leads among pitchers with 40+ innings, but Zebby Matthews nearly identical microscopic walk rate stands out because he’s thrown almost 100 innings.

PlayerWalk PCTOrganization
Sann Omosako1.80Blue Jays
Zebby Matthews1.87Twins
Sean Sullivan2.44Rockies
Marlon Franco2.56Giants
Reiver Camacho2.58Rockies
Jormy Nivar2.70Rangers
Manuel Rodriguez2.73Brewers
Austin Peterson2.90Guardians
Collin Lowe2.92Marlins
Lachlan Wells3.02Phillies
Matt Koch3.13Rockies
Minimum 40 IP

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Tigers Narrowly Holding Off Brewers, Guardians For Top MiLB Organization Record In 2024 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/tigers-narrowly-holding-off-brewers-guardians-for-top-milb-org-record-in-2024/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/tigers-narrowly-holding-off-brewers-guardians-for-top-milb-org-record-in-2024/#respond Tue, 20 Aug 2024 12:45:47 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1486702 The Detroit Tigers lead all teams in MiLB win-loss records in 2024, which is a further sign of the organization's recent improvements.

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With just over a month remaining in the 2024 schedule, there’s a very tight race for which organization will finish with the best record across the minor leagues.

The Tigers currently have a narrow three-game lead over the Brewers, with the Guardians 4.5 games back and the Red Sox 6.5 games back. When it comes to run differential, however, the Tigers are much more clearly in first place, as their +385 differential is 74 runs ahead of anyone else.

Triple-A Toledo is the only Tigers minor league club with a losing record. Meanwhile, Double-A Biloxi and the ACL Brewers are Milwaukee’s only MiLB teams below .500.

The Tigers’ top record is a further sign of the steadily-improving quality of the organization’s MiLB talent. Detroit has not ranked in the top five of MiLB org standings since 2014. Last year’s ninth-place finish was their first time in the top 10 over that decade-long stretch. The Tigers finished in the bottom five in 2019 and 2017 and settled in the bottom third of the standings every year from 2015-2019 with the exception of 2018.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Padres are running away with the title for worst organizational record. San Diego is 32 games worse than the 29th-ranked Braves. The Padres’ MiLB clubs also have the worst combined run differential at -402.

Low-A Lake Elsinore is the only Padres MiLB team with a winning record, while Triple-A El Paso, High-A Fort Wayne, the Rookie-level ACL Padres and the DSL Padres Brown all have winning percentages of .400 or worse.

The Triple-A Omaha Storm Chasers (Royals) have the best record in full-season baseball with a .627 winning percentage (74-44). The Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts (Reds) are easily the worst team in full-season affiliated baseball with a .319 winning percentage (36-77).

OrganizationWinsLossesPct.Run Differential
Tigers346275.557385
Brewers343278.552254
Guardians340278.550311
Red Sox342284.546215
Rangers338284.543253
Marlins328289.53224
Giants333294.531247
Rockies327297.52461
Dodgers327297.524291
Rays326299.522197
Royals321297.519159
Mariners294279.513221
Cardinals289275.512121
Nationals284281.503-191
Yankees310308.50241
Twins283284.499-10
Diamondbacks312316.497-68
Phillies305316.491-48
Reds304320.487-147
Pirates301321.4848
White Sox272301.475-117
Orioles297331.473-66
Angels270302.472-61
Mets287325.469-224
Athletics267305.467-268
Cubs290332.466-213
Astros282333.459-379
Blue Jays257304.458-233
Braves243320.432-355
Padres267360.426-408

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Ranking The 20 Hottest MLB Prospects | Hot Sheet (8/20/24) https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/ranking-the-20-hottest-mlb-prospects-hot-sheet-8-20-24/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/ranking-the-20-hottest-mlb-prospects-hot-sheet-8-20-24/#respond Tue, 20 Aug 2024 12:42:43 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1487484 This week's Hot Sheet is headlined by a white-hot Tigers catching prospect, a top 2024 draft pick and plenty more.

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Baseball America’s Hot Sheet ranks the 20 hottest prospects from the previous week. This installment of the Prospect Hot Sheet considers how minor league players performed through Aug. 19. Contributing this week were Baseball America staffers Josh Norris, Geoff Pontes, J.J. Cooper and Matt Eddy.

This simply recognizes how the hottest prospects in the minors did in the past week—it’s not a re-ranking of the Baseball America Top 100 Prospects.

We host our weekly Hot Sheet Show on YouTube at 3 p.m. ET. Check out our channel here.


1. Thayron Liranzo, C, Tigers

Team: High-A West Michigan (Midwest)
Age: 21

Why He’s Here: .611/.741/1.278 (11-for-18) 9 R, 3 2B, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 9 BB, 2 SO.

The Scoop: Liranzo didn’t travel far when the Dodgers traded him to the Tigers in the Jack Flaherty trade. He was playing for Great Lakes in the Midwest League and moved to West Michigan in the same league. But the trade has transformed him at the plate. Liranzo was hitting .220 with just 22 extra-base hits in 74 games. With the Tigers, he has a .396 average and 10 extra-base hits in 15 games. He has had six games this year with six or more total bases. Three of those have come in the past two weeks. And one of his home runs this week was one of the better ones we’ll see all year. Liranzo cleared the batter’s eye in center field with a titanic shot. (JC)

2. Lazaro Montes, OF, Mariners

Team: High-A Everett (Northwest)
Age: 19

Why He’s Here: .526/.615/.947 (10-for-19), 9 R, 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 7 RBIs, 6 BB, 6 SO, 1-for-1 SB

The Scoop: It took him a little while to find his footing in the Northwest League, but Montes has it all going now. The teenage thumper clobbered two more home runs this past week, bringing his season mark to 17, four of which have come since moving to High-A. In 15 August games, Montes is hitting an absurd .400/.493/.618 with three doubles, three homers and 11 RBIs. He still whiffs more than is ideal, but when he makes contact, he makes contact. Proof? His 90th percentile exit velocity this year is roughly 105 mph. (JN)

3. Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics

Team: Low-A Stockton
Age: 21

Why He’s Here: .412/.600/1.000 (7-for-17), 9 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 9 RBIs, 8 BB, 4 SO

The Scoop: After watching him slam four home runs in his first 25 at-bats, the A’s decided that Nick Kurtz had tormented the California League plenty for one year and promoted him all the way to Double-A Midland. There, he’ll find a hospitable environment, albeit against far more advanced pitching than he saw over seven games in Stockton. The 2024 first-rounder and Wake Forest alum crushed a pair of doubles and four home runs—including three during the most recent Hot Sheet period—and finished his Low-A tenure with more walks (10) than strikeouts (7). Texas League pitchers, you’re officially on notice. (JN)

4. Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pirates

Team: Triple-A Indianapolis (International)
Age: 21

Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.00, 6 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 11 SO, 0 HR

The Scoop: Since moving to Triple-A, Chandler has kicked it into high gear. The righthander struck out 11 this past week, his third start of the season with double-digit punchouts. The outing was his second since moving to the International League, and so far he has K’d 17 against just three walks over 13 innings. Most importantly, he’s shown much better control this year: In 2023, he walked more than 4 hitters per nine innings. This season, that figure is just 2.8 per nine innings. (JN)

5. Quinn Mathews, LHP, Cardinals

Team: Double-A Springfield (Texas)
Age: 23

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.00, 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 SO, 0 HR

The Scoop: No matter how you slice it, Mathews’ season has been remarkable. The lefty from Stanford struck out 11 in his most recent turn, giving him six double-digit strikeout games this season. His 168 strikeouts are the most in the minors overall, ahead of Cleveland’s Matt Wilkinson by a dozen. His 0.88 WHIP is fourth in the full-season minors and his .169 opponent average is third. When Quinn the lefthander gets here, all the hitters gonna run from him. (JN)

6. Harry Ford, C/OF, Mariners

Team: Double-A Arkansas (Texas) 
Age: 21

Why He’s Here: .375/.531/.750 (9-for-24), 12 R, 3 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 6 RBIs, 6 BB, 10 SO, 3-for-3 SB

The Scoop: Ford did a little bit of everything last week, collecting a hit in all six games and reaching base at least twice in all of those contests. Ford stole three bases, slugged a pair of home runs and scored two or more runs in five of six games. All season long, Ford has shown his on-base skills and speed. His power, though, has been harder to come by. Ford has below-average exit velocities and his ball flight metrics are just average. If he can stick behind the plate and add a little more power, Ford has a chance to develop into an above-average regular. (GP) 

7. Jimmy Crooks, C, Cardinals 

Team: Double-A Springfield (Texas) 
Age: 23 

Why He’s Here: .522/.556/.826 (12-for-23), 6 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 9 RBIs, 3 BB, 5 SO, 0-for-0 SB

The Scoop: Jimmy Crooks cooked all last week, tallying multiple hits in all five games. It’s been a banner season for Crooks, who’s hitting .326/.415/.514 with Double-A Springfield and has been one of the top hitters in the Texas League. It’s a hit-first catcher profile, but Crooks has made advancements behind the plate and been good in the running game. The Cardinals have Willson Contreras under contract until 2027 but Crooks could force his way into their catching picture in 2025. (GP)  

8. Cole Young, SS, Mariners 

Team: Double-A Arkansas (Texas) 
Age: 21 

Why He’s Here: .458/.581/.625 (11-for-24), 4 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 4 RBIs, 7 BB, 4 SO, 0-for-0 SB

The Scoop: Young’s combination of bat-to-ball skills and approach puts him into elite company among his peers. He balances contact with strong swing decisions while avoiding passivity at the plate. Despite a lack of raw power, Young has good ball flight metrics and knows how to pull the ball in the air. Last week, Young had hits in all six games and reached base at least twice in each game. He showed his signature plate approach walking nearly twice as many times as he struck out. Young is likely to move off shortstop for second base long term, but could be a good defender at second base. Young’s profile is based around his advanced plate skills and barrel control. (GP) 

9. Noah Cameron, LHP, Royals 

Team: Triple-A Omaha (International) 
Age: 25 

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.71, 12.2 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 13 SO, 1 HR

The Scoop: The 2021 seventh-rounder out of Central Arkansas has been a find for the Royals. Cameron pitched his way up to Triple-A this season after a strong start with Double-A Northwest Arkansas. Last week, Cameron turned in two gems against Louisville, going six-plus innings each time out, limiting hard contact and generating whiffs. Cameron mixes a low-90s four-seamer with cut, a low-80s changeup and a low-80s curveball with good depth. It’s a good changeup from a higher arm slot that creates deception from the left side. Cameron could fit a variety of roles as a spot starter or a lefthanded reliever for the Royals in September. His upside is limitedm but he has enough deception and feel to pitch to fill a role. (GP) 

10. Abimelec Ortiz, 1B, Rangers

Team: Double-A Frisco (Texas)
Age: 22

Why He’s Here: .500/.607/.636 (11-for-22), 6 R, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, 5 BB, 4 SO, 1 HBP

The Scoop: This has been a trying season for Ortiz, punctuated by weeks like the last one, in which he reached base in 17 of 28 trips to the plate versus Springfield. Overall, Ortiz has hit .225/.303/.364 with nine home runs in his first season at Double-A. As a first base-only player, he must recover the bat speed and power that enabled him to hit 33 bombs at two Class A levels in 2023. (ME)

11. Brady House, 3B, Nationals

Team: Triple-A Rochester (International) 
Age: 21 

Why He’s Here: .333/.407/.833 (8-for-24), 7 R, 3 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 10 RBIs, 1 BB, 7 SO, 0-for-0 SB

The Scoop: There’s been some good and some bad so far in Triple-A for House, but he’s been around a league-average producer over his first 27 games. Last week, House had some standout games to start the series against Syracuse collecting two hits in each of the first three games. His best game came on Thursday when he slugged a pair of home runs. Despite a fairly aggressive approach, House is showing strong in-zone contact rates, solid exit velocities and good expected outcomes. House could potentially see a cup of coffee in the majors late this season, joining James Wood and CJ Abrams as the Nationals’ young core in 2025 and beyond. (GP) 

12. James Tibbs III, OF, Giants

Team: Low-A San Jose (California)
Age: 21

Why He’s Here: .522/.542/.652 (12-for-23), 7 R, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 0 RBIs, 1 BB, 3 SO

The Scoop: After an outstanding season at Florida State, Tibbs has found the California League to his liking. The 13th overall pick in this past year’s draft, Tibbs has collected 17 hits in his first 41 trips and this past week struck out just three times in 23 at-bats. Tibbs earned a reputation as a pure hitter throughout his amateur career—both at Florida State and in the Cape Cod League—and could produce above-average output for both hittability and power if he reaches his ceiling. So far, so good in his first pro test. (JN)

13. Chase DeLauter, OF, Guardians

Team: Double-A Akron (Eastern)
Age: 22

Why He’s Here: .438/.500/1.000 (7-for-16) 5 R, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 2 SO.

The Scoop: DeLauter’s last week in Akron before his promotion to Triple-A was an excellent one. DeLauter’s overall numbers are solid but unspectacular, but that’s because injuries have once again derailed his season. This is only the second time he’s played for three straight weeks this season. Now that he’s shaken the rust off, he’s driving the ball for power while demonstrating above-average contact skills as well. The promotion to Triple-A means he still has a chance to show that he could be worth a late-season callup if he keeps swinging the bat like this. (JC)

14. Charles McAdoo, OF, Blue Jays 

Team: Double-A New Hampshire (Eastern) 
Age: 22

Why He’s Here: .412/.524/.765 (7-for-17), 4 R, 0 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBIs, 3 BB, 4 SO, 2-for-2 SB

The Scoop: Acquired by the Blue Jays from the Pirates in exchange for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, McAdoo took a few weeks to settle into his new surroundings. But he did just that last week against Reading. McAdoo opened the week with home runs in consecutive games, before putting together two- and three-hit efforts the next two games. McAdoo has above-average bat speed with enough contact, approach and barrel control to make it all work. One of the breakout prospects of 2024, McAdoo has a chance to see time with the Blue Jays in 2025. (GP) 

15. Max Anderson, 2B, Tigers

Team: High-A West Michigan (Midwest)
Age: 22

Why He’s Here: .440/.481/.640 (11-for-25) 6 R, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBIs, 2 BB, 2 SO.

The Scoop: This recent stretch is closer to what Anderson needs to be. He’s a fringy defender at second base, so if he’s going to get to the majors, it’s going to be because he can really hit. Anderson is an aggressive hitter who will chase out of the zone pretty regularly, so he needs to hit plenty of stinging line drives. He also needs to figure out how to lift the ball more consistently with a wood bat. Anderson hit 21 home runs in his final year at Nebraska. He has 10 this year and three in his past 40 games. (JC)

16. Matt Shaw, 2B/3B, Cubs 

Team: Triple-A Iowa (International) 
Age: 22 

Why He’s Here: .421/.500/.789 (8-for-19), 4 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 7 RBIs, 2 BB, 2 SO, 1-for-2 SB

The Scoop: A tough first week in Triple-A looks to be completely in the rear view mirror for Shaw. The Cubs’ top positional prospect had three multi-hit games throughout last week and hit his first two Triple-A home runs. Shaw has a well-rounded plate profile with average bat-to-ball skills, strong swing decisions and above-average power and angles on contact. With a strong spring in 2025, Shaw should compete for a job in the Cubs’ starting infield. (GP) 

17. Dalton Rushing, OF, Dodgers

Team: Triple-A Oklahoma City (Pacific Coast)
Age: 23

Why He’s Here: .350/.480/.750 (7-for-20) 7 R, 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 5 BB, 5 SO, 0 SB, 0 CS.

The Scoop: Rushing has made a very speedy adjustment to Triple-A. In the Texas League, Rushing slugged .512. In the Pacific Coast League, Rushing is now slugging .512, so there’s a pretty perfect symmetry. He struck out four times with no walks in his first four games and he’s walked nine and struck out seven times since. As far as left field, Rushing hasn’t been particularly challenged yet, but he’s generally passed the test. He’s had one sinking liner that got past him for a double, and he’s also made a nice diving catch. Overall, he’s looked competent. It seems more of a backup plan than anything else at this point considering Teoscar Hernandez is one of the best left fielders in baseball (and Rushing hasn’t played anywhere else in the outfield yet). (JC)

18. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Tigers

Team: Double-A Erie (Eastern)
Age: 22

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 1.59, 11.1 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 9 SO, 1 HR

The Scoop: As a trio of rookie Jacksons shine in MLB—Merrill for the Padres, Chourio for the Brewers and Holliday for the Orioles—a fourth is making quick work of Double-A competition. In two starts versus Akron last week, Jobe threw 75 and 100 pitches as he continued ramping up his workload and putting batters away with his fastball, slider and cutter. In eight starts for Erie since returning from the injured list, he has a 2.13 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 42.1 innings. (ME)

19. Jack Leiter, RHP, Rangers

Team: Triple-A Round Rock (Pacific Coast)
Age: 24

Why He’s Here: 0-0, 2.45, 3.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 11 SO, 1 WP.

The Scoop: It’s hard for a starting pitcher to make the Hot Sheet when they throw 3.2 innings in a start, but we will make an exception when the pitcher strikes out 11 of the 14 batters he faced. As Eli Ben-Porat laid out for us yesterday in his Statcast Standouts, Leiter at his best, when he’s getting above-average life on his four-seam fastball, is really good. This was Leiter at his best. But when his command or the life on his fastball dips, he has yet to figure out another way to dominate. (JC)

20. Ryan Bergert, RHP, Padres

Team: Double-A Amarillo (Texas)
Age: 24

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.00, 1 GS, 6 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 SO.

The Scoop: Bergert was perfect this week, as he threw the first six innings of a Sod Poodles no-hitter. Berget’s biggest challenge came from A.J. Vukovich, who battled Bergert for 11 pitches in the second inning including five two-strike foul balls before he lined out to right field. Bergert relied more heavily on his cutter than normal, which seemed to pay off. Bergert’s season has struggled to match his very effective work in 2023, but he’s finishing strong. (JC)

HELIUM

Bryan Torres, 2B, Cardinals

If you don’t know about Torres’ excellent work in the partner league American Association, Torres’ career seems extremely odd. He spent five years in pro ball without ever reaching a full-season league. He was then a MiLB Rule 5 pick in 2019 but didn’t get to play for his new team (the Giants) until 2021 because of the pandemic. When he reached MiLB free agency, he didn’t find a new team and ended up starring for the Milwaukee Milkmen in 2022 and 2023.

The 2023 Baseball America Independent/Partner Leagues Player of the Year has had a very solid return to affiliated ball. The former catcher is now a speedy center fielder who has been one of the best hitters in the Texas League. He’s two points behind teammate Jimmy Crooks for both the batting title and on-base percentage lead. As a 27-year-old, this likely is more of an excellent stint for an org player, but do remember what Jose Martinez did with the Cardinals a decade ago. Martinez was an org player bouncing around, but he led the Pacific Coast League in batting as a 26-year-old and made his MLB debut as a 27-year-old with the Cardinals. He would go on to play 432 games in the majors. (JC)

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