The first group’s argument can be summarized as follows: Velocity is vitally important, and pitchers who want to have MLB success are wise to push to throw as hard as they can.

And the second group’s argument: The never-ending chase for velocity is likely to blame for the ever-increasing rate of arm injuries, something that wasn’t as much of an issue when pitchers didn’t throw as hard.

Both sides have some valid points, and the argument isn’t going away any time soon. The charts we’ve compiled below may help to explain why the chase for velocity isn’t likely to disappear, even if it may increase injury risks.

What Are The Average Fastball Velocities Of Top MLB Prospects?

Earlier this year, Baseball America ranked the average fastball speeds of every pitching prospect in the Top 100.

SEE THE LIST

Specifically, we’re using the excellent Baseball Savant tool to look at how MLB hitters have fared against four-seam fastballs divided into different velocity buckets so far in 2024. What we’re not looking at is how well each pitch is located, what the count was or how well the pitch moved. We’re only separating these pitches out by velocity.

As you may note below, the harder an MLB pitcher throws, the more effective his four-seam fastball is. It’s a relatively linear relationship. Overall, MLB hitters are hitting .244/.311/.401 with a 25.1% whiff rate this year, and the average velocity of a four-seam fastball is 94.2 mph. Hitters like to see fastballs, so against those four-seamers, MLB hitters are slashing better: .246/.334/.424 with a 21.7% whiff rate.

If a pitcher throws at or below the league-average four-seam fastball velocity, on average, they are giving up above-average production on those four-seamers. If they throw 95+ mph (which is above MLB average velocity), they are giving up below-average production on four-seam fastballs. And if they throw 100+ mph, hitters dread seeing their fastball.

Major League Four-Seam Data

We can do the same for Triple-A pitchers’ four-seam fastballs in 2024.

Once again, we see a similar relationship: If you throw harder, you have more success. The only difference is we didn’t include 101-102 mph fastballs for Triple-A, as there have been less than a hundred thrown all season (pitchers who throw 102 mph don’t hang out in Triple-A very long). As one might expect, there was a much more statistically-robust total of 435 fastballs thrown at 101-102 mph for the major leagues.

Triple-A Four-Seam Data

Again, this is only four-seam fastballs. But what if we looked at how hard pitchers threw their slider? We’re again not focused on how the pitches move, so we’re looking at all types of sliders: traditional, sweepers, gyro and all else.

In case that leads you another question, here’s the same breakdown for four-seam fastballs from MLB in 2009. MLB hitters showed similar degradations in production and increases in whiff rates as velocity climbed, and similar production against each fastball velocity bucket. But in 2009, only 6% of four-seam fastballs were 97+ mph. Now 17% of them are 97+ mph, so there are a lot more at-bats taking place in the higher ranges of these buckets.

Major League Slider Data

The results aren’t as linear as the fastball velocity buckets, but other than 85-86 mph pitches having better results than 87-88 mph, there still is a definite improvement in results as velocity increases and swing-and-miss rates climb.

With changeups, however, there is no clear relationship between velocity and success. Changeups rely on movement, deception and in many cases, a velocity separation from a pitcher’s fastball. So, a pitcher who throws a hard changeup that lacks deception may not be benefiting from that velocity.

As you can see below, by not controlling for anything other than velocity, there does not seem to be any significant relationship between changeup velocity and the pitch’s effectiveness.

Major League Changeup Data

So what does it all mean?

Throwing harder, especially when it comes to fastballs, leads to more success for MLB pitchers. If you throw harder, hitters have less time to react, and that makes a hitters’ job tougher. It sounds simple, because it is.

But it’s a simple truth that many baseball fans seem to struggle to accept.

The post Why Do MLB Pitchers Focus So Much On Velocity? How Fastball Data Explains Baseball’s Growing Search For Speed appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Tyler Fitzgerald, SS/OF, Giants

The 26-year-old has burst onto the scene in the second half of 2024, swatting 12 homers and swiping seven bases in 28 games since the All-Star break. During this stretch, Fitzgerald ranks top 10 in batting average, top 20 in OBP and top six in slugging percentage. Only Jake Burger has hit more home runs than Fitzgerald over that time, while only American League MVP favorites Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. have accrued more fWAR.

From July 9th (pre-All-Star break) through July 27th, Fitzgerald hit a memorable eight homers in just 10 games played, becoming the first Giants player to do so since Barry Bonds in 2004:

Normally, this would be the end of the story for a player who peaked at No. 28 in the Giants’ 2020 organization prospect rankings.

However, since that homer run tear, Fitzgerald is still slashing .304/.341/.557 with five homers and seven steals in 19 games. This “regression” suggests he wasn’t just a two-week wonder. Which begs the question: How is Fitzgerald doing this?

A quick look at Fitzgerald’s Baseball Savant page shows that he has pulled most of his home runs.

Among hitters with at least 50 fly balls this season, Fitzgerald ranks t-11th in pull rate at 40%. While not quite at Isaac Paredes’ 45% threshold this year, Fitzgerald is surrounded by pull-happy names such as Adam Duvall, Rhys Hoskins and Anthony Santander.

Pulling fly balls is one way to outperform your expected stats. Among players with at least 100 balls in play, nobody has a larger difference between their xwOBA and their actual wOBA than Fitzgerald. However, the other two players inside the top 80 of the differential leaderboard who have at least a .400 wOBA are good company: Royce Lewis and Rafael Devers.

This analysis has mostly described how Fitzgerlad got to this point. It remains to be seen how pitchers begin adjusting and if the rookie can adjust back. The Giants are counting on him to do so. After playing sparingly to begin the summer, Fitzgerald has started 28 straight games entering this week. He’s done so while operating as the team’s everyday shortstop, a position San Francisco desperately needs in a post-Brandon Crawford era. Fitzgerald’s plus defense at the position has boosted his WAR total, potentially forcing his way into the National League Rookie of the Year race.

James Wood, OF, Nationals

There’s going to be a lot of James Wood hype entering the 2025 Major League Baseball season.

Since he debuted too late to join the NL ROY discussion, and the Nationals are no longer competing for a postseason spot, the conversation around Wood is relatively muted compared to what it will be by spring training next year.

Through 42 big league games entering Monday, the 21-year-old is slashing .284/.373/.458 (135 wRC+) with five homers and six steals. He’s been even better lately, posting a 196 wRC+ during August, which ranks eighth among all MLB hitters. After posting a 33% strikeout rate in July, he’s down to 26% this month to go along with an improved walk rate.

The key has been a massive reduction in chasing outside the zone:

While a .459 BABIP during the month of August isn’t sustainable, it’s encouraging to see such quick adjustments from a hitter his age.

Something Wood needs to continue working on is lifting the ball. His 56% ground ball rate is the seventh-highest in the majors among players with at least 170 plate appearances.

Somewhat troublingly, it took until Sunday for him to finally pull a fly ball. Still, given his age and prospect pedigree, Wood’s to-date success might also be considered even more impressive, given that he has yet to optimize his batted balls.

Additional comfort lies in the fact that, among all major league hitters with 100 or more balls in play, Wood’s average exit velocity ranks fifth:

Hitting the ball hard on the ground can help lead to an inflated BABIP, so unless Wood starts pulling in the air at an extreme rate, there’s a chance this stretch could be the high-water mark of his rookie campaign.

Even with only modest improvement in his pulled fly ball rate, Wood can finish strong by continuing his swing decision improvement. If he checks those boxes, he’ll be an easy 22-year-old breakout pick entering spring training.

Zach Neto, SS, Angels

While the Angels trudge through another summer without Mike Trout, there have at least been a few bright spots between Neto and Logan O’Hoppe.

Neto debuted in April of last year after spending just 44 games in the minors (and none at Triple-A). The results were about what one would expect for a young hitter acclimating to the majors: .225/.308/.377 with nine homers and five steals across 84 games.

In 2024, Neto started slowly through his first 101 PAs, posting a 76 wRC+ without signaling much improvement. Since then, he has 16 homers, 18 stolen bases and a greatly-reduced K% to go along with a 133 wRC+. Rotisserie fantasy managers have appreciated the power-speed contributions, though the Angels must also be quite happy with his development.

Interestingly, Neto’s swing decisions and batted-ball profile haven’t undergone major overhauls since 2023. Instead, his slash line improvements stem from better results on contact: 357 xwOBAcon in 2023 vs. .393 in 2024

Perhaps those numbers are the result of improving against a specific pitch. Last season, Neto had a negative run value against sliders. Thus far in 2024, only two other qualified hitters have been as productive against sliders, per Baseball Savant:

Neto’s still working on his all-around game, with a 19th percentile Outs Above Average and seven caught stealing attempts. If he’s able to get better in those areas to begin 2025, we could be witnessing the seeds of an All-Star campaign.`

The post Three Promising Young MLB Hitters To Watch In The Final Month Of The Season appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Oregon State’s Adley Rutschman presented a clear-cut No. 1 overall talent as a proven college hitter and potential franchise catcher.

Led by Bobby Witt Jr., Riley Greene and CJ Abrams, the level of high school talent was higher than usual. Even the second tier of first-round preps included future big leaguers Brett Baty, Corbin Carroll and Anthony Volpe.  

Aside from Rutschman, many of the top college hitters in 2019 have come up short of stardom. Still, the first round was littered with future MLB regulars. In order of selection: Andrew Vaughn, JJ Bleday, Josh Jung, Shea Langeliers, Bryson Stott and Michael Busch.

Perhaps the most surprising development from the 2019 first round is that a maligned crop of college pitchers has yielded quality young starters George Kirby, Nick Lodolo and Alek Manoah.

While Manoah has faltered in the past two seasons, he made an all-star team in 2022, when he also finished third in American League Cy Young Award voting.

The remarkable talent level of the 2019 draft extended beyond the first round. The first pick of the second round has compiled more WAR than any other draftee. Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson won AL Rookie of the Year in 2023 and will challenge for MVP this season.

So while Rutschman, Witt, Henderson and others lost the 2020 minor league season to the pandemic, their talent shined too brightly to be denied. 

FIRST ROUND

1. ADLEY RUTSCHMAN
Orioles • C

College World Series champion at Oregon State in 2018. College Player of the Year and No. 1 overall draft pick by the Orioles in 2019. No. 1 prospect in baseball heading into 2022, the same year he made his MLB debut and was AL Rookie of the Year runner-up. Major league all-star in 2023 and 2024. Rutschman has accomplished a lot in a short time, but he and the first-place Orioles aren’t done yet.

2. BOBBY WITT JR.
Royals • SS

In nine out of 10 drafts, Witt would have been the No. 1 overall pick. But the loaded 2019 class happened to have a franchise catcher at the top. The Royals were thrilled to “settle” for Witt out of his Dallas-area high school. He projected to have plus tools across the board, but he has been even better than that for Kansas City. Witt is a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop who could win a batting title while going 30-30.

3. ANDREW VAUGHN
White Sox • 1B

A two-time first-team All-American at Cal, Vaughn was a risky pick as a shorter, righthanded first baseman. He has been a league-average hitter without distinguishing hitting, power or defense.

4. JJ BLEDAY
Marlins • OF

A 27-homer junior campaign at Vanderbilt catapulted Bleday toward the top of the college class. He has resurrected his career in Oakland this season by holding down center field with an above-average bat.

5. RILEY GREENE
Tigers • OF

Scouts loved Greene’s bat when he was a prep in the Orlando area. They saw him as a potential double-plus hitter with a chance for plus power. Greene took major strides toward that reality this season, when he made his first all-star team as a 23-year-old. He hit a career-high 17 home runs before injuring his hamstring in late July, and it’s exciting to think what he might accomplish with a fully healthy season.

6. CJ ABRAMS
Padres • SS

Abrams’ elite speed paired nicely with a line-drive, lefthanded swing when he was in high school in the Atlanta area. The Padres rushed him to the big leagues as a 21-year-old in 2022 and then dealt him to the Nationals in the Juan Soto blockbuster that summer. Abrams has taken major strides in D.C. the past two seasons, nearly going 20-50 in 2023 while finding more power this season as a first-time all-star. 

7. NICK LODOLO
Reds • LHP

The 6-foot-7 Texas Christian lefthander began tightening his control as a junior, and then put up a 30-to-zero strikeout-to-walk ratio over 18 innings in his pro debut. Lodolo didn’t miss a beat when play resumed in 2021 and then made the Reds’ Opening Day roster in 2022. While extended injury absences have marred his time in pro ball, Lodolo is only one healthy season away from wide acclaim.

8. JOSH JUNG
Rangers • 3B

Injuries are a part of sports, as Jung knows only too well. A star at Texas Tech, Jung was drafted by the home-state Rangers and hit well in his pro debut, but his journey has since been interrupted by a series of injuries. He had surgery on his foot, shoulder, thumb and wrist each season from 2021 to 2024. Still, he hit 23 homers and made the all-star team as a rookie for the World Series-champion Rangers in 2023.

9. SHEA LANGELIERS
Braves • C

The Braves traded Langeliers to the Athletics to acquire Matt Olson prior to 2022. He is a throwback catcher with elite arm strength and huge power who is now in his second season as a regular.

10. HUNTER BISHOP
Giants • OF

Bishop is healthy at Triple-A after losing 2020 to the pandemic, most of 2021 to a shoulder injury and 2023 to elbow surgery. Lauded for his power and speed at Arizona State, Bishop hasn’t hit in pro ball.

11. ALEK MANOAH
Blue Jays • RHP

Manoah required almost no minor league seasoning coming out of West Virginia before he put up a 2.60 ERA in his first 51 MLB starts. He fell off the pace in 2023 and had hybrid Tommy John surgery this season.

12. BRETT BATY
Mets • 3B

Baty was old for his high school class, but the Austin, Texas, two-sport standout could hit. He has done just that up to Triple-A as a pro, but he has not yet broken through in three MLB trials in Queens.

13. KEONI CAVACO
Twins • SS

Cavaco had just turned 18 when drafted, making his name pop in models. He hit just .212 in six pro seasons, topping out at High-A, before the Twins released him in June. The Astros signed him as a pitcher.

14. BRYSON STOTT
Phillies • SS

The top college shortstop drafted coming out of Nevada-Las Vegas, Stott has developed into a quality lefthanded-hitting second baseman on a title contender. Stott does a little bit of everything.

15. WILL WILSON
Angels • SS

The Angels drafted Wilson out of N.C. State in June and traded him to the Giants in a salary dump in December. Wilson has spent much of the past four seasons at Double-A, producing middling results.

16. CORBIN CARROLL
D-backs • OF

If Carroll were a bit taller, he would have been drafted earlier, but the 5-foot-10 Seattle prep star fell to Arizona at pick No. 16. Carroll had major shoulder surgery that cost him most of 2021, but he more than made up for lost time in subsequent seasons, especially in 2023 when he was Rookie of the Year for the NL pennant-winning D-backs. Carroll was pulling out of a season-long slump in the second half of 2024.

17. JACKSON RUTLEDGE
Nationals • RHP

The 6-foot-8 junior college product reached MLB for cups of coffee the past two seasons but has not yet stuck. The ABS system at Triple-A has made throwing strikes tough for the extra-tall righty.

18. QUINN PRIESTER 
Pirates • RHP

The suburban Chicago prep had great physical projection and feel to spin a curveball. The Pirates traded Priester to the Red Sox for prospect Nick Yorke this July after he logged a 6.46 ERA in 95 big league innings.

19. ZACK THOMPSON
Cardinals • LHP

Thompson was attractive as a four-pitch lefty who dominated SEC competition at Kentucky. He has been more of an up-and-down swingman during callups to St. Louis the past three seasons.

20. GEORGE KIRBY
Mariners • RHP

Command has always been Kirby’s calling card. Even in his Elon days, he could spot his fastball and slider with precision. When he started adding velocity in pro ball thanks to the Mariners’ pitching development, Kirby developed into an elite prospect. Not long after, he was an elite major league starter. Since his 2022 debut, no pitcher has a lower walk rate—3%—than Kirby, while his strikeout rate is above average.

21. BRADEN SHEWMAKE
Braves • SS

Shewmake has lived up to his Texas A&M reputation as a strong shortstop with a light bat. Traded by the Braves to the White Sox in the offseason, the utility infield hopeful was on the Triple-A injured list.

22. GREG JONES
Rays • SS

The Rays shipped Jones to the Rockies in spring training, and the UNC Wilmington product made his MLB debut as a right fielder this season. He has had trouble getting on base enough for his plus wheels to play.

23. MICHAEL TOGLIA
Rockies • 1B

The switch-hitting UCLA first baseman has a tenuous hold on first base in Denver. Toglia has sold out for power this season, resulting in his best MLB home run total but also few doubles and many strikeouts.

24. DANIEL ESPINO
Guardians • RHP

The Georgia prep cruised to Double-A with some of the top stuff in the minors. But injuries have derailed Espino, who has not pitched since April 2022. He is out this season after rotator cuff surgery.

25. KODY HOESE
Dodgers • 3B

Hoese launched 23 homers as a Tulane junior, but injuries and lack of impact power have held him back in pro ball. He reached Triple-A for the first time this season and would benefit from a change of scenery.

26. BLAKE WALSTON
D-backs • LHP

The North Carolina prep lefty made his MLB debut in May but spent the summer on the shelf with elbow inflammation. Walston’s 4.37 minor league ERA looks better in light of hitter-friendly home parks.

27. RYAN JENSEN
Cubs • RHP

A first-round reach coming out of Fresno State, Jensen reached Triple-A as a reliever with the Cubs before they cut bait in 2023. He has passed from the Mariners to Marlins to Twins on waivers.

28. ETHAN SMALL
Brewers • LHP

The Mississippi State lefty reached MLB for cups of coffee in 2022 and 2023. The Brewers shipped Small to the Giants before spring training this year. He was working his way back from an oblique injury.

29. LOGAN DAVIDSON
Athletics • SS

Davidson stood out at Clemson as a 6-foot-3, switch-hitting shortstop, albeit with hit tool questions. Those concerns have manifested in a spotty pro career, this year as a utility player at Triple-A.

30. ANTHONY VOLPE
Yankees, • SS

Volpe was high school teammates with Jack Leiter at New Jersey’s Delbarton School. Leiter went on to Vanderbilt, while Volpe turned pro with the Yankees. While his selection was viewed as a slight overdraft, Volpe quickly proved doubters wrong with a 27-homer, 33-steal romp through Class A in 2021. By 2023, he was the Yankees’ shortstop. Volpe has an outstanding glove, good speed and a near-average bat.  

31. MICHAEL BUSCH
Dodgers • 2B

Busch played mostly first base at North Carolina, but the Dodgers had designs on him at second base. That plan eventually gave way to third base, his primary position when he was Pacific Coast League MVP in 2023. Busch was buried behind all-stars on the Dodgers’ depth chart—until Los Angeles traded him to the Cubs in 2024. This season, Busch is thriving as Chicago’s rookie first baseman.

32. KOREY LEE
Astros • C

The Astros drafted Lee out of Cal and traded him to the White Sox at the 2023 deadline. He is getting run as Chicago’s primary catcher this season and has flashed intermittent power and incredible arm strength.

SECOND ROUND STANDOUT

42. GUNNAR HENDERSON
Orioles • SS

Many clubs had Alabama prep Henderson as a first-round talent. Still, he slipped to the first pick of the second round, and the Orioles pounced. Henderson’s athleticism, power and arm strength stood out quickly in pro ball, and by 2023 he was the No. 1 overall prospect and then AL Rookie of the Year. This year he was a first-time all-star and five-tool superstar likely to be a factor in MVP voting.

THIRD ROUND STANDOUT

98. MICHAEL HARRIS II
Braves • OF

A standout outfielder and lefthander at Stockbridge High outside Atlanta, Harris was drafted by his hometown Braves in the third round. He focused on hitting in pro ball and was a big leaguer by age 21, when he won the NL Rookie of the Year award in 2022. Harris has great speed, Gold Glove potential in center field and a rocket arm, but his hitting and power are a bit undersold. The best is yet to come.

FOURTH ROUND STANDOUT

129. BRENTON DOYLE 
Rockies • OF

Doyle starred at Division II Shepherd in West Virginia before the Rockies drafted him in the fourth round. He raked in the minors at a series of hitting-friendly stops before finding his level in 2023 when the Rockies called him up. Doyle hit just .203 as a rookie but won a Gold Glove in center field. His athleticism and defensive foundation set the stage for across-the-board improvement in a breakout 2024 season.

FIFTH ROUND STANDOUT

166. HUNTER BROWN
Astros • RHP

Brown grew up in Detroit idolizing Tigers ace Justin Verlander. He later joined his idol’s organization when the Astros drafted him in the fifth round out of Division II Wayne State. Brown cruised through the minors and was part of Houston’s 2022 World Series champions, where he was teammates with Verlander. Brown’s secondary stuff has stepped forward, making the hard-thrower a more complete pitcher.

The Hits Keep Coming

The notable names from the 2019 draft don’t stop with Hunter Brown. A number of other picks have carved out MLB roles.

Matt Wallner, OF, Twins. Drafted by: Twins (1st round supplemental) 
Josh Smith, 3B, Rangers. Drafted by: Yankees (2nd round)
Spencer Steer, OF, Reds. Drafted by: Twins (3rd round)
Ryan Pepiot, RHP, Rays. Drafted by: Dodgers (3rd round)
Joey Ortiz, 3B, Brewers. Drafted by: Orioles (4th round) 
Michael Massey, 2B, Royals. Drafted by: Royals (4th round) 
Graham Ashcraft, RHP, Reds. Drafted by: Reds (6th round) 
Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals. Drafted by: Royals (11th round) 
Edouard Julien, 2B, Twins. Drafted by: Twins (18th round)
Matt Waldron, RHP, Padres. Drafted by: Guardians (18th round) 
Kerry Carpenter, OF, Tigers. Drafted by: Tigers (19th round)

The post Epic 2019 MLB Draft Class Comes Of Age Five Years Later appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

• Evaluating Speed (4:00)
• 60 Yard Dash and Home to First (7:00)
• Top Speed and it’s benefits (16:00)
• X Axis of force velocity curve (27:00)
• Top speed atrophies as players age (35:00)
• The Nolan Arenado example (44:00)
• What accelerates atrophy? (49:00)
• Hit Tool Players vs. Size, Athleticism and Tools (52:00)
• Colt Emerson vs. Walker Martin (63:00)
• The Brent Rooker Example (67:00)

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Drew • 61 WAR

1997: J.D. Drew, OF, No. 2
2004: Stephen Drew, SS, No. 15

Both Drews starred at Florida State and had lengthy MLB careers, making them the most productive first-round brothers. While J.D. infamously did not sign with the Phillies in 1997, he was the fifth overall pick the following year. His .384 OBP is one of the highest marks of the past 25 years, and he contributed steady power and defense as a corner outfielder. Stephen was a standout defender who had a few good years with the bat. Their brother Tim also was a first-rounder, drafted 28th overall in 1997 as a high school righthander.

Upton • 49 WAR

2002: B.J. Upton, SS, No. 2
2005: Justin Upton, SS, No. 1

Both Uptons signed out of high school in Chesapeake, Va. B.J. was a graceful center fielder who stole 300 bases with good power. Four-time all-star Justin was a slugging corner outfielder who hit 325 home runs. They were teammates for three seasons with the Padres and Braves.

Benes • 33 WAR

1988: Andy Benes, RHP, No. 1
1993: Alan Benes, RHP, No. 16

Former Evansville standout Andy was the preeminent 1-1 college ace before David Price, Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole came along. He won 155 games in 14 seasons, made an all-star team and finished top five for a Cy Young Award twice. Younger brother Alan had an injury-marred, eight-year MLB career. The Benes brothers were teammates for three seasons with the Cardinals.

Young • 15 WAR

1991: Dmitri Young, 3B, No. 4
2003: Delmon Young, OF, No. 1

Dmitri made a couple of all-star teams in 13 MLB seasons. Delmon shined brighter as a prospect—No. 1 overall in 2006—but was done as a regular by his mid 20s and out of MLB before turning 30. Note that Dmitri and Delmon’s nephew, Quentin, is also one of the top prospects in the 2025 draft.

Weeks • 13 WAR

2003: Rickie Weeks, 2B, No. 2
2008: Jemile Weeks, 2B, No. 12

Rickie set the Division I standard with a .473 career average at Southern. With the Brewers, he contributed power, speed and walks to three playoff teams. Hard hands held him back defensively at second base. Jemile was a stronger defender but didn’t hit enough to hold a regular job.

Other Prominent First-Round Brother tandems

2019: Josh Jung, 3B, No. 8
2022: Jace Jung, 2B, No. 12

1998: Jeff Weaver, RHP, No. 14
2004: Jered Weaver, RHP, No. 12

2012: Josh Naylor, 1B, No. 12
2015: Bo Naylor, C, No. 29

The post Could The Holliday Brothers Soon Join These First-Round Duos? appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Be sure to listen to previous organizational breakdowns here:

• AL East
• AL Central
• AL West
• NL East
• NL Central

(3:10) Arizona Diamondbacks
(17:30) Colorado Rockies
(31:00) Los Angeles Dodgers
(49:30) San Diego Padres
(60:00) San Francisco Giants

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• What To Look For In The New Baseball America Magazine (1:30)
• What To Expect From Junior Caminero (2:30)
• Can Zebby Matthews Fit In Minnesota? (4:45)
• How Charlie Condon’s Development Path Was Different From Most (8:45)
• Was Condon Surprised To Not Go 1-1? (12:00)
• Where Is Condon Most Comfortable Defensively? (14:00)
• Condon Explains His Swing And What He Looks To Do (15:30)
• How Jackson Holliday Is Rolling, What’s Next On The Top 100? (23:00)

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The post Junior Caminero, Zebby Matthews Are Major Leaguers; Charlie Condon Joins The Show | Hot Sheet Show Ep. 20 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Be sure to listen to previous organizational breakdowns here:

• AL East
• AL Central
• AL West
• NL East

(3:30) Chicago Cubs
(16:30) Cincinnati Reds
(29:30) Milwaukee Brewers
(41:00) Pittsburgh Pirates
(55:20) St. Louis Cardinals

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American League

Few outcomes are more certain than Aaron Judge receiving Best Tools votes in the American League best power category.

The Yankees’ 32-year-old center fielder won the category as a rookie in 2017 and then again in 2018, 2022 and now 2024. Judge also finished runner-up in 2019 and 2023.

The names surrounding Judge on the all-time Best Tools leaderboard for best power are telling: Giancarlo Stanton, Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols. That quintet has combined to hit 3,164 home runs—and counting.

What’s even more notable this year is Judge’s first win for best hitter. It is the first time he has ever earned a top-three finish, let alone first place.

It’s easy to see why Judge received so much attention for his bat. Heading into August, he led AL hitters in home runs, RBIs, on-base percentage and slugging as the favorite to win a second MVP award.

Best Hitter

1. Aaron Judge, Yankees
2. Juan Soto, Yankees
3. Steven Kwan, Guardians

Best Power

1. Aaron Judge, Yankees
2. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles
3. Yordan Alvarez, Astros

Best Bunter

1. Cedric Mullins, Orioles
2. Jose Altuve, Astros
3. Daulton Varsho, Blue Jays

Best Strike-Zone Judgment

1. Juan Soto, Yankees
2. Kyle Tucker, Astros
3. Steven Kwan, Guardians

Best Hit-And-Run Artist

1. Steven Kwan, Guardians
2. Jose Altuve, Astros
3. Salvador Perez, Royals

Best Baserunner

1. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
2. Jose Ramirez, Guardians
3. Jarren Duran, Red Sox

Fastest Baserunner

1. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
2. Byron Buxton, Twins
3. Dairon Blanco, Royals

Most Exciting Player

1. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles
2. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
3. Aaron Judge, Yankees

Best Pitcher

1. Corbin Burnes, Orioles
2. Tarik Skubal, Tigers
3. George Kirby, Mariners

Best Fastball

1. Mason Miller, Athletics
2. Cole Ragans, Royals
3. Emmanuel Clase, Guardians

Best Curveball

1. Seth Lugo, Royals
2. Corbin Burnes, Orioles
3. Justin Verlander, Astros

Best Slider

1. Tanner Houck, Red Sox
2. Griffin Jax, Twins
3. Hunter Gaddis, Guardians

Best Changeup

1. Michael Wacha, Royals
2. Tyler Anderson, Angels
3. Tanner Houck, Red Sox

Best Control

1. George Kirby, Mariners
2. Zach Eflin, Orioles
3. Joe Ryan, Twins

Best Pickoff Move

1. Jon Gray, Rangers
2. Tanner Bibee, Guardians
3. Nestor Cortes, Yankees

Best Reliever

1. Emmanuel Clase, Guardians
2. Mason Miller, Athletics
3. Andres Muñoz, Mariners

Best Defensive Catcher

1. Cal Raleigh, Mariners
2. Jonah Heim, Rangers
3. Jose Trevino, Yankees

Best Defensive First Baseman

1. Nathaniel Lowe, Rangers
2. Carlos Santana, Twins
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays

Best Defensive Second Baseman

1. Marcus Semien, Rangers
2. Andres Gimenez, Guardians
3. Nicky Lopez, White Sox

Best Defensive Third Baseman

1. Josh Rojas, Mariners
2. Alex Bregman, Astros
3. Jose Ramirez, Guardians

Best Defensive Shortstop

1. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
2. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles
3. JP Crawford, Mariners

Best Infield Arm

1. Carlos Correa, Twins
2. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
3. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles

Best Defensive Outfielder

1. Daulton Varsho, Blue Jays
2. Byron Buxton, Twins
3. Leody Taveras, Rangers

Best Outfield Arm

1. Adolis Garcia, Rangers
2. Kevin Kiermaier, Blue Jays
3. Colton Cowser, Orioles

Best Manager

1. Bruce Bochy, Rangers
2. Kevin Cash, Rays
3. Brandon Hyde, Orioles

National League

Player value can be debated ad nauseam, but major league managers are clear on one point.

Shohei Ohtani is the most exciting player in baseball.

The 30-year-old Dodgers DH has won that Best Tools category in every season since the pandemic, the first three in the American League when he was with the Angels.

This year, National League managers chose Ohtani as best hitter, best power and most exciting player.

That all checks out. As August dawned, Ohtani led the NL in batting, on-base percentage, slugging, home runs and a few other key categories.

Oh, and Ohtani is plenty valuable, too. He is the odds-on favorite to win his third MVP award this year.

Best Hitter

1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
2. Bryce Harper, Phillies
3. Mookie Betts, Dodgers

Best Power

1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
2. Bryce Harper, Phillies
3. Oneil Cruz, Pirates

Best Bunter

1. Jacob Young, Nationals
2. TJ Friedl, Reds
3. Jake McCarthy, D-backs

Best Strike-Zone Judgment

1. Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
2. Mookie Betts, Dodgers
3. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

Best Hit-And-Run Artist

1. Luis Arraez, Padres
2. William Contreras, Brewers
3. Nico Hoerner, Cubs

Best Baserunner

1. Elly De La Cruz, Reds
2. Corbin Carroll, D-backs
3. Trea Turner, Phillies

Fastest Baserunner

1. Elly De La Cruz, Reds
2. Trea Turner, Phillies
3. Victor Scott II, Cardinals

Most Exciting Player

1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
2. Elly De La Cruz, Reds
3. Paul Skenes, Pirates

Best Pitcher

1. Zack Wheeler, Phillies
2. Chris Sale, Braves
3. Paul Skenes, Pirates

Best Fastball

1. Paul Skenes, Pirates
2. Hunter Greene, Reds
3. Reynaldo Lopez, Braves

Best Curveball

1. Aaron Nola, Phillies
2. Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers
3. Max Fried, Braves

Best Slider

1. Chris Sale, Braves
2. Ryan Helsley, Cardinals
3. Dylan Cease, Padres

Best Changeup

1. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies
2. Logan Webb, Giants
3. Freddy Peralta, Brewers

Best Control

1. Aaron Nola, Phillies
2. Logan Webb, Giants
3. Shota Imanaga, Cubs

Best Pickoff Move

1. Charlie Morton, Braves
2. Patrick Corbin, Nationals
3. Max Fried, Braves

Best Reliever

1. Ryan Helsley, Cardinals
2. Tanner Scott, Marlins
3. Robert Suarez, Padres

Best Defensive Catcher

1. Patrick Bailey, Giants
2. JT Realmuto, Phillies
3. Gabriel Moreno, D-backs

Best Defensive First Baseman

1. Christian Walker, D-backs
2. Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
3. Matt Olson, Braves

Best Defensive Second Baseman

1. Brice Turang, Brewers
2. Ketel Marte, D-backs
3. Nico Hoerner, Cubs

Best Defensive Third Baseman

1. Matt Chapman, Giants
2. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pirates
3. Ryan McMahon, Rockies

Best Defensive Shortstop

1. Ezequiel Tovar, Rockies
2. Dansby Swanson, Cubs
3. Elly De La Cruz, Reds

Best Infield Arm

1. Masyn Winn, Cardinals
2. Oneil Cruz, Pirates
3. Elly De La Cruz, Reds

Best Defensive Outfielder

1. Brenton Doyle, Rockies
2. Jacob Young, Nationals
3. Michael Siani, Cardinals

Best Outfield Arm

1. Nolan Jones, Rockies
2. Fernando Tatis Jr, Padres
3. Brenton Doyle, Rockies

Best Manager

1. Rob Thomson, Phillies
2. Pat Murphy, Brewers
3. Dave Roberts, Dodgers

The post MLB Best Tools 2024: Managers, Scouts & Execs Vote On The Best Players appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Colleyville Heritage High, located in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, played 42 games in 2019, winning 39 of them, as Witt led the Panthers to the Texas class 5A state title.

The Royals wanted to watch over the player they believed was the most talented in a top-heavy draft class that also included Adley Rutschman and 2024 first-time all-stars Gunnar Henderson, Riley Greene and CJ Abrams.

Kansas City saw all five of Witt’s tools, and the sixth for those who believe heavily in makeup.

Then-Royals GM Dayton Moore did, and the only thing that could stop him from selecting Witt with the No. 2 overall pick would be if Baltimore selected him at 1-1.

The Orioles chose Rutschman, the Oregon State star catcher. The Royals phoned Witt immediately to tell him he was their pick.

“We knew we wanted Bobby Witt Jr. a year before the draft,” said Moore, now the Rangers’ senior adviser of baseball operations. “We loved Adley Rutschman as well, and we didn’t know what the Orioles were going to do.

“But Bobby Witt Jr., I can honestly tell you, was No. 1 on our list, and that’s who we were really hoping to be able to select.”

Five years later, Witt might have the best overall skill set in MLB.

Witt controls the barrel well enough to win a batting title, possesses 30-homer power, threw 95 mph as a high school closer, makes plays at shortstop that his teammates can’t believe and is in the argument for fastest player in the game.

Among active players, only Shohei Ohtani can match Witt in terms of total plus tools. But only Ohtani’s hit, power and speed were on display this year, his pitching on hold while he recovers from offseason elbow surgery.

Mookie Betts also has a case, too. He won a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger in the same season five times, all as a right fielder. Witt has that kind of potential, the separator being his ability to captain the infield as a shortstop.

“It’s a rare combination of elite athleticism and tools, elite tools with elite skill. It’s all there,” Moore said of Witt. “It’s always been advanced. Plus he’s got elite makeup. It’s just a great, great package and speaks to who he is as a person and how he was raised.

“He is a legit five-tool player with baseball skill and a baseball mind.”

Moore’s assessment is hardly unique. Baseball’s best gushed over Witt in July during All-Star Game festivities in Arlington, Texas, where he had a home-field advantage of sorts. He purchased tickets for 30 family members and estimated that more than 100 friends would be in attendance.

The sold-out crowds of nearly 40,000 for the Home Run Derby and Midsummer Classic recognized the talent in addition to the local ties, giving the 24-year-old some of the loudest ovations of any player—hometown Rangers players included.

Witt humbly sidestepped the notion that he rates among the best of the best despite an abundance of evidence, ranging from traditional statistics to MLB Statcast figures to eyewitness testimony. He said he doesn’t even think he has a best skill.

“I feel like I can still get better in all aspects of the game,” he said. “I’ve just got to keep working and keep getting better.”

As Moore puts it, Witt can beat a team in more ways than any player in the game or in recent memory.

More than young Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz, who continues to develop. More than the Orioles’ Gunnar Henderson, the American League all-star shortstop starter. More than Mike Trout, whose arm strength wasn’t elite. And more than Ichiro Suzuki, who reached double figures in home runs just three times.

A case can be made that Witt grades out at 70 or higher in hitting, power, speed, fielding and arm strength on the 20-80 scouting scale.

“He just puts pressure on you in so many ways,” Moore said. “There are very few players in the game who can beat you in multiple ways.

“Junior can beat you with the glove. He can beat you with the arm, he can beat you with the legs, he can scratch out an infield hit, stay on a breaking ball the other way for a soft single, and he can turn around the fastball and hit it out of the ballpark and into the fountains (at Kauffman Stadium).”

Witt has big league bloodlines. His father is Bobby Witt Sr., who was drafted by the Rangers with the third overall pick in 1986 and pitched for 16 MLB seasons. He was known as a terrific competitor who never wanted to give up the ball. Witt Jr. said his mother, a high school swimmer, also contributed some athletic genes.

Witt conceded that players, coaches and fans are most surprised by how fast he runs. Entering the all-star break, he was tied for the MLB lead for fastest sprint speed of 30.4 feet per second and was ninth with an average home-to-first run time of 4.11 seconds.

“You can’t really appreciate it until you see it,” Henderson said.

Last season, Witt tied De La Cruz for the fastest sprint speed—30.5 feet per second—and finished tied for the AL lead with 25 infield hits.

Witt swiped 49 bases in 2023 to become a 30-homer, 40-steal player. He was the first Royals player in history to record a 30-30 season and the seventh player in MLB history to go 30-30 in his age-23 season or younger.

Witt became the first player in MLB history with at least 50 homers and 70 steals in his first two seasons.

“He does everything well,” Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams said. “He’s fast, super fast. He’s got super power. Seeing that on the field, it’s just fun to watch.”

Abrams was selected four picks after Witt in 2019 by the Padres, and the Orioles later nabbed Henderson in the second round at No. 42 overall. The phenoms watched each other play at showcase events over multiple summers before they launched their professional careers.

Abrams and Witt were teammates on USA Baseball’s 18U National Team in 2018—along with, among others, Anthony Volpe, Corbin Carroll, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Dylan Crews, Riley Greene and Jack Leiter—which captured the COPABE Pan-American championship. Witt was the tournament MVP after batting .576 and hitting for the cycle in the title game against Panama.

Two years after being drafted, Witt was the BA Minor League Player of the Year.

“It seems like all of his stuff in high school was very well-rounded, and it seems like throughout the years it gets even more well-rounded,” Henderson said. “Being able to watch him do that, just how he progresses each and every year, it’s been awesome to watch and I really enjoy competing with him.”

The 30-homer power might also surprise some. At 6-foot-1, 205 pounds, Witt isn’t a hulking figure like Adolis Garcia or Kyle Schwarber, but he’s put together. He tries to generate power by getting his lower half involved in his swing.

Bat speed helps, too, and Witt’s average bat speed rates above league average and is the fastest swing on a wild card contender which also includes all-star catcher Salvador Perez, who should reach 300 career homers next season.

“I’m not the biggest guy out there, so I’m just trying to create more force from the legs up,” Witt said. “It’s always been part of my game. I try to have all of the five tools, and one of them is power. So I just try to work to be able to do that.”

Phillies shortstop Trea Turner played for Team USA with Witt last year in the World Baseball Classic. Turner is one of the all-stars who recognized Witt’s attitude and work ethic as standing out as much or more than any of his tools.

Witt’s hit tool stood out most to Turner, especially in today’s age of power pitching. Witt ranked third in the AL last season with 177 hits while batting .286. He batted .323 in the first half of this season, behind only the Guardians’ Steven Kwan at .352. Witt opened the second half by going 9-for-11 in the first series after the All-Star Game to jump to .337.

“It’s hard to hit for a high average, especially in today’s game with velocity and great defense,” Turner said. “And he’s (24) years old. I think that’s most impressive.”

Witt has made the most improvement since debuting in 2022 with his defense. The Statcast metric outs above average assessed him a –9 as a rookie. That figure improved to 14 in 2023 and this year was on pace to be roughly double that total.

Rangers manager Bruce Bochy, who skippered the AL all-star team, called Witt’s play at shortstop “terrific” and said he could probably play any position in the field.

Witt’s best play so far this season might have been his running, over-the-shoulder catch on an Andy Pages flare at Dodger Stadium. Witt had the presence of mind to get the ball back to the infield, and the Royals doubled off Teoscar Hernandez at first base.

(Hernandez exacted a modicum of revenge by edging Witt to win the Home Run Derby—and the $1 million prize.)

Witt was playing on his 24th birthday, and the double play helped prevent lefthander Cole Ragans from getting into a jam against a prolific Dodgers lineup. Witt has topped out at 94.1 mph on throws this season, which rates as above-average.

“That guy’s a special player,” Ragans said. “He’s a superstar, but he’s one of the best human beings you’ll meet.”

Earlier this year, Royals GM J.J. Picollo signed Witt to an 11-year, $288.7 million extension. Moore, Picollo’s predecessor, said the deal should put the Royals in a position to contend for the postseason for years to come.

While there are no guarantees, Witt is the kind of player to build a franchise around. He possesses all five tools and the elite baseball IQ and makeup that ties the talent together.

“He’s the best player who I’ve ever scouted, for sure,” Moore said. “I can’t think of a player in our game who can beat you in as many ways as Bobby Witt Jr. can.”

The post Bobby Witt Jr. Might Be MLB’s Most Tooled Up Player appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.