Seth Johnson

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Baltimore Orioles #10 prospect in 2024
  BA Grade: 50/High
  
  Track Record: A converted pitcher at Campbell after spending two years as a shortstop at Louisburg (N.C.) JC, Johnson shot up draft boards in 2019 and was drafted 40th overall by the Rays. He was pitching well in 2021 before he suffered an elbow injury that ultimately required Tommy John surgery. Given the Rays’ pending roster crunch, they made him available for what became a three-team trade that sent Trey Mancini from Baltimore to the Astros and Jose Siri from Houston to Tampa Bay. Johnson returned to the mound in August 2023 and ended the year at Double-A Bowie.
  
  Scouting Report: Johnson’s post-surgery delivery remains athletic and fluid. His fastball averaged 95 mph over his rehab stints with hoppy life at the top of the zone. While his slider was slow to return to form, it remains at least a plus future pitch in the mid 80s with late bite, and the Orioles believe targeting improvements and grip adjustments can help him regain its quality. Johnson used his mid-to-high-80s curveball, a fringe-average pitch, as his primary weapon to lefties upon his return, with his developing changeup a fourth pitch at this stage. Given Johnson’s athleticism and relatively short track record as a pitcher, the Orioles expect he can approach average control.
  
  The Future: Johnson maintains a midrotation ceiling based on his stuff and athleticism, though the impact of Tommy John surgery and the fact that he’s already on the 40-man roster could push him to the major league bullpen in the near term. He’ll likely start 2024 at Double-A Bowie.
  
  Scouting Grades Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 45 | Slider: 65 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50
• 
  Ranked Baltimore Orioles #16 prospect in 2023
  BA Grade/Risk: 50/Extreme
  
  Track Record: Johnson started as a shortstop at Louisburg (N.C.) JC but showed impressive aptitude once he converted to the mound and pitched his way up draft boards in his one season at Campbell. The Rays selected him 40th overall in 2019 and traded him to the Orioles as part of a three-team deal that sent Trey Mancini to Houston and outfielder Jose Siri to Tampa Bay. Johnson had an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery at the time of the trade, which made such a talented arm available at the deadline.
  
  Scouting Report: Before his injury, Johnson boasted the kind of hoppy fastball the Orioles favor, one that regularly sat in the mid-90s and topped out at 98 mph. He generated that velocity from an easy, effortless delivery. His slider was at least a plus pitch with tight, late break, and he also boasts a slower curveball and developing changeup. Johnson showed an ability to miss bats with that arsenal, with a 17.7% swinging strike rate helping him strike out 13.7 batters per nine innings in seven starts for High-A Bowling Green without an elevated walk rate.
  
  The Future: The injury, however, means Johnson likely won't pitch a meaningful amount until 2024. The Orioles added Johnson to the 40-man roster in November to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, and hope he recovers quickly enough to warrant the long-term roster spot. It stands to reason he will, however, considering Johnson's stuff comfortably profiles to the back half of a major league rotation with a high relief ceiling should he come back healthy.
  
  Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60. Curveball: 45. Slider: 60. Changeup: 45. Control: 50
• 
  Ranked Tampa Bay Rays #12 prospect in 2022
  Track Record: The Rays have long demonstrated that they believe most young pitchers are best on a slow development path. That’s been quite apparent with Johnson. The shortstop turned righthander was sent to Low-A Charleston. He was erratic at first, but after posting a 4.62 ERA in his first 12 outings, Johnson posted a 0.84 ERA over his final 11 starts.
  
  Scouting Report: Johnson’s history as a shortstop is still apparent at times when it comes to pitch sequencing, but he’s made steady improvement. When he’s locked in, he has the look of an athletic mid-rotation starter. Johnson’s 84-87 mph power slider earns 70 grades at its best. It has tight, late break. Johnson also can attack hitters with a 94-98 mph four-seam plus fastball. It pairs well with his slider, but it lacks elite movement. Johnson does consistently throw it for strikes. He doesn’t command his secondaries as well as his fastball, but he has average control overall. His 71-75 mph curveball is a fringy get-over pitch, and his below-average changeup has a long way to go.
  
  The Future: Johnson is Rule 5 eligible if not added to the 40-man after the 2022 season. While he’ll start at High-A Bowling Green, ideally he needs to move quickly to speed up his development.
  
• 
  Ranked Tampa Bay Rays #18 prospect in 2021
  TRACK RECORD: Losing the 2020 season may be a little more costly for Johnson than most prospects because he's still just getting started on his pitching career. Primarily a shortstop at Louisburg (N.C.) JC, he turned himself into a top 50 draft prospect when he moved to the mound for his junior year at Campbell. Johnson has just 89 innings of experience between college and pro ball.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: While he didn't play in an official game in 2020, Johnson didn't let the layoff go to waste. He attacked his throwing program with intensity and added some good weight. He showed up at instructional league with a plus mid-90s fastball that can now touch 99 mph with late run and a sharp, above-average slider with high spin at 2,700 to 2,800 revolutions per minute. Johnson also has worked on a fringe-average curveball, and his average changeup has modest fading action. Johnson is athletic and has impressed with his ability to quickly improve as a pitcher. His arm works well as part of a clean delivery, and his control and command are quickly getting to average with a chance to eventually be better than that.
  
  THE FUTURE: Johnson just needs to wrack up the innings he hasn't been able to log yet. His present fastball/slider combo gives him a backup plan as a reliever, but his four-pitch assortment gives him a shot to be a mid-rotation starter.
• 
  Ranked Tampa Bay Rays #19 prospect in 2020
  TRACK RECORD: After two years at Louisburg (N.C.) JC as a light-hitting shortstop, Johnson discovered his path to Division I baseball was on the mound. In just one year at Campbell, he pitched his way into a top-40 spot in the 2019 draft. After signing, he was held on a strict two inning per outing limit.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Johnson generally sat at 93-95 mph on his plus fastball, but in his best stints, he sat 96-97 to go with a plus 84-86 mph late breaking slider and average changeup. Johnson's velocity has steadily ticked up since he started pitching just a year ago and his changeup is something he picked up very quickly. It has some late fade at its best. Johnson's delivery is clean and athletic and he's surprisingly adept at the mental side of pitching for someone who is relatively new to the mound. Johnson's still figuring out how to command his fastball, but he has the athleticism and delivery to have average control.
  
  THE FUTURE: Johnson is set to head to low Class A Bowling Green in 2020. He has a starter's clean delivery and a fresh arm.

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #28 prospect in 2019 draft
  Johnson played two seasons as a shortstop with Louisburg (N.C.) JC, where he struggled with the bat, hitting just .240/.341/.560 in 56 games. He was athletic and had a strong arm, though, so he jumped on the mound in an attempt to give pitching a chance and was immediately throwing in the low 90s. Campbell decided to bet on Johnson's arm strength, and during the fall scouts raved about how quickly the righthander had taken to pitching, showcasing a premium arm action and easy delivery. His velocity started climbing throughout the fall, and both of his breaking pitches developed as well. As a further testament to his unusual aptitude, Johnson developed a reliable changeup seemingly overnight. This spring, the results have been mixed for Johnson, but he's still shown all of the impact stuff that he flashed during the fall. He has plus fastball velocity with natural running life, but that occasionally hurts him, as he doesn't have the command necessary to avoid the pitch from running back over the heart of the plate. His hard, 83-85 mph slider, which is ahead of his curveball at the moment, comes from a release point that mirrors his fastball and projects as an above-average offering with tight, late-breaking action. His 71-74 mph curveball has solid shape and depth, but it lacks the finish and bite needed to be a legitimate out-pitch at the moment. Johnson's changeup clocks in the mid- to upper 80s and has slight fading action with good feel. He gets off the mound and fields his position well, which is what you would expect from a former junior college shortstop. He has a long way to go in terms of accumulating innings and figuring out the finer details of pitching, such as pitching with efficiency from the stretch, fastball command and the consistency of his breaking balls, but given where he currently sits with so little pitching background, his upside is high. It would take guts to take a 6-foot-1, 200-pound righthander with Johnson's limited track record in the first round, but that's where his pure talent fits, particularly in a down year for college arms.

• February, 2023 Scouting Report
  BA Grade/Risk: 50/Extreme
  
  Track Record: Johnson started as a shortstop at Louisburg (N.C.) JC but showed impressive aptitude once he converted to the mound and pitched his way up draft boards in his one season at Campbell. The Rays selected him 40th overall in 2019 and traded him to the Orioles as part of a three-team deal that sent Trey Mancini to Houston and outfielder Jose Siri to Tampa Bay. Johnson had an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery at the time of the trade, which made such a talented arm available at the deadline.
  
  Scouting Report: Before his injury, Johnson boasted the kind of hoppy fastball the Orioles favor, one that regularly sat in the mid-90s and topped out at 98 mph. He generated that velocity from an easy, effortless delivery. His slider was at least a plus pitch with tight, late break, and he also boasts a slower curveball and developing changeup. Johnson showed an ability to miss bats with that arsenal, with a 17.7% swinging strike rate helping him strike out 13.7 batters per nine innings in seven starts for High-A Bowling Green without an elevated walk rate.
  
  The Future: The injury, however, means Johnson likely won't pitch a meaningful amount until 2024. The Orioles added Johnson to the 40-man roster in November to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, and hope he recovers quickly enough to warrant the long-term roster spot. It stands to reason he will, however, considering Johnson's stuff comfortably profiles to the back half of a major league rotation with a high relief ceiling should he come back healthy.
  
  Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60. Curveball: 45. Slider: 60. Changeup: 45. Control: 50
• December, 2022 Scouting Report
  BA Grade/Risk: 50/Extreme
  
  Track Record: Johnson started as a shortstop at Louisburg (N.C.) JC but showed impressive aptitude once he converted to the mound and pitched his way up draft boards in his one season at Campbell. The Rays selected him 40th overall in 2019 and traded him to the Orioles as part of a three-team deal that sent Trey Mancini to Houston and outfielder Jose Siri to Tampa Bay. Johnson had an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery at the time of the trade, which made such a talented arm available at the deadline.
  
  Scouting Report: Before his injury, Johnson boasted the kind of hoppy fastball the Orioles favor, one that regularly sat in the mid-90s and topped out at 98 mph. He generated that velocity from an easy, effortless delivery. His slider was at least a plus pitch with tight, late break, and he also boasts a slower curveball and developing changeup. Johnson showed an ability to miss bats with that arsenal, with a 17.7% swinging strike rate helping him strike out 13.7 batters per nine innings in seven starts for High-A Bowling Green without an elevated walk rate.
  
  The Future: The injury, however, means Johnson likely won't pitch a meaningful amount until 2024. The Orioles added Johnson to the 40-man roster in November to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, and hope he recovers quickly enough to warrant the long-term roster spot. It stands to reason he will, however, considering Johnson's stuff comfortably profiles to the back half of a major league rotation with a high relief ceiling should he come back healthy.
  
  Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60. Curveball: 45. Slider: 60. Changeup: 45. Control: 50
• April, 2022 Scouting Report
  BA Grade: 50/High
  
  August Update: Acquired from the Rays at the trade deadline as a part of the three team deal that sent Trey Mancini to the Astros and Jose Siri to the Rays, Johnson is scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery and is likely to miss all of the 2023 season.
  
  Track Record: The Rays have long demonstrated that they believe most young pitchers are best on a slow development path. That&#39s been quite apparent with Johnson. The shortstop turned righthander was sent to Low-A Charleston. He was erratic at first, but after posting a 4.62 ERA in his first 12 outings, Johnson posted a 0.84 ERA over his final 11 starts.
  
  Scouting Report: Johnson&#39s history as a shortstop is still apparent at times when it comes to pitch sequencing, but he&#39s made steady improvement. When he&#39s locked in, he has the look of an athletic mid-rotation starter. Johnson&#39s 84-87 mph power slider earns 70 grades at its best. It has tight, late break. Johnson also can attack hitters with a 94-98 mph four-seam plus fastball. It pairs well with his slider, but it lacks elite movement. Johnson does consistently throw it for strikes. He doesn&#39t command his secondaries as well as his fastball, but he has average control overall. His 71-75 mph curveball is a fringy get-over pitch, and his below-average changeup has a long way to go.
  
  The Future: Johnson is Rule 5 eligible if not added to the 40-man after the 2022 season. While he&#39ll start at High-A Bowling Green, ideally he needs to move quickly to speed up his development.
  
  Scouting Grades Fastball: 55. Slider: 70. Curveball: 45. Changeup: 40. Control: 50.
• December, 2021 Scouting Report
  Track Record: The Rays have long demonstrated that they believe most young pitchers are best on a slow development path. That’s been quite apparent with Johnson. The shortstop turned righthander was sent to Low-A Charleston. He was erratic at first, but after posting a 4.62 ERA in his first 12 outings, Johnson posted a 0.84 ERA over his final 11 starts.
  
  Scouting Report: Johnson’s history as a shortstop is still apparent at times when it comes to pitch sequencing, but he’s made steady improvement. When he’s locked in, he has the look of an athletic mid-rotation starter. Johnson’s 84-87 mph power slider earns 70 grades at its best. It has tight, late break. Johnson also can attack hitters with a 94-98 mph four-seam plus fastball. It pairs well with his slider, but it lacks elite movement. Johnson does consistently throw it for strikes. He doesn’t command his secondaries as well as his fastball, but he has average control overall. His 71-75 mph curveball is a fringy get-over pitch, and his below-average changeup has a long way to go.
  
  The Future: Johnson is Rule 5 eligible if not added to the 40-man after the 2022 season. While he’ll start at High-A Bowling Green, ideally he needs to move quickly to speed up his development.
  
• July, 2021 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Losing the 2020 season may be a little more costly for Johnson than most prospects because he's still just getting started on his pitching career. Primarily a shortstop at Louisburg (N.C.) JC, he turned himself into a top 50 draft prospect when he moved to the mound for his junior year at Campbell. Johnson has just 89 innings of experience between college and pro ball.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: While he didn't play in an official game in 2020, Johnson didn't let the layoff go to waste. He attacked his throwing program with intensity and added some good weight. He showed up at instructional league with a plus mid-90s fastball that can now touch 99 mph with late run and a sharp, above-average slider with high spin at 2,700 to 2,800 revolutions per minute. Johnson also has worked on a fringe-average curveball, and his average changeup has modest fading action. Johnson is athletic and has impressed with his ability to quickly improve as a pitcher. His arm works well as part of a clean delivery, and his control and command are quickly getting to average with a chance to eventually be better than that.
  
  THE FUTURE: Johnson just needs to wrack up the innings he hasn't been able to log yet. His present fastball/slider combo gives him a backup plan as a reliever, but his four-pitch assortment gives him a shot to be a mid-rotation starter.
• March, 2021 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Losing the 2020 season may be a little more costly for Johnson than most prospects because he's still just getting started on his pitching career. Primarily a shortstop at Louisburg (N.C.) JC, he turned himself into a top 50 draft prospect when he moved to the mound for his junior year at Campbell. Johnson has just 89 innings of experience between college and pro ball.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: While he didn't play in an official game in 2020, Johnson didn't let the layoff go to waste. He attacked his throwing program with intensity and added some good weight. He showed up at instructional league with a plus mid-90s fastball that can now touch 99 mph with late run and a sharp, above-average slider with high spin at 2,700 to 2,800 revolutions per minute. Johnson also has worked on a fringe-average curveball, and his average changeup has modest fading action. Johnson is athletic and has impressed with his ability to quickly improve as a pitcher. His arm works well as part of a clean delivery, and his control and command are quickly getting to average with a chance to eventually be better than that.
  
  THE FUTURE: Johnson just needs to wrack up the innings he hasn't been able to log yet. His present fastball/slider combo gives him a backup plan as a reliever, but his four-pitch assortment gives him a shot to be a mid-rotation starter.
• December, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Losing the 2020 season may be a little more costly for Johnson than most prospects because he's still just getting started on his pitching career. Primarily a shortstop at Louisburg (N.C.) JC, he turned himself into a top 50 draft prospect when he moved to the mound for his junior year at Campbell. Johnson has just 89 innings of experience between college and pro ball.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: While he didn't play in an official game in 2020, Johnson didn't let the layoff go to waste. He attacked his throwing program with intensity and added some good weight. He showed up at instructional league with a plus mid-90s fastball that can now touch 99 mph with late run and a sharp, above-average slider with high spin at 2,700 to 2,800 revolutions per minute. Johnson also has worked on a fringe-average curveball, and his average changeup has modest fading action. Johnson is athletic and has impressed with his ability to quickly improve as a pitcher. His arm works well as part of a clean delivery, and his control and command are quickly getting to average with a chance to eventually be better than that.
  
  THE FUTURE: Johnson just needs to wrack up the innings he hasn't been able to log yet. His present fastball/slider combo gives him a backup plan as a reliever, but his four-pitch assortment gives him a shot to be a mid-rotation starter.
• July, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: After two years at Louisburg (N.C.) JC as a light-hitting shortstop, Johnson discovered his path to Division I baseball was on the mound. In just one year at Campbell, he pitched his way into a top-40 spot in the 2019 draft. After signing, he was held on a strict two inning per outing limit.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Johnson generally sat at 93-95 mph on his plus fastball, but in his best stints, he sat 96-97 to go with a plus 84-86 mph late breaking slider and average changeup. Johnson’s velocity has steadily ticked up since he started pitching just a year ago and his changeup is something he picked up very quickly. It has some late fade at its best. Johnson’s delivery is clean and athletic and he’s surprisingly adept at the mental side of pitching for someone who is relatively new to the mound. Johnson’s still figuring out how to command his fastball, but he has the athleticism and delivery to have average control.
  
  THE FUTURE: Johnson is set to head to low Class A Bowling Green in 2020. He has a starter’s clean delivery and a fresh arm.
• February, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: After two years at Louisburg (N.C.) JC as a light-hitting shortstop, Johnson discovered his path to Division I baseball was on the mound. In just one year at Campbell, he pitched his way into a top-40 spot in the 2019 draft. After signing, he was held on a strict two inning per outing limit.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Johnson generally sat at 93-95 mph on his plus fastball, but in his best stints, he sat 96-97 to go with a plus 84-86 mph late breaking slider and average changeup. Johnson's velocity has steadily ticked up since he started pitching just a year ago and his changeup is something he picked up very quickly. It has some late fade at its best. Johnson's delivery is clean and athletic and he's surprisingly adept at the mental side of pitching for someone who is relatively new to the mound. Johnson's still figuring out how to command his fastball, but he has the athleticism and delivery to have average control.
  
  THE FUTURE: Johnson is set to head to low Class A Bowling Green in 2020. He has a starter's clean delivery and a fresh arm.
• December, 2018 Scouting Report
  Johnson played two seasons as a shortstop with Louisburg (N.C.) JC, where he struggled with the bat, hitting just .240/.341/.560 in 56 games. He was athletic and had a strong arm, though, so he jumped on the mound in an attempt to give pitching a chance and was immediately throwing in the low 90s. Campbell decided to bet on Johnson's arm strength, and during the fall scouts raved about how quickly the righthander had taken to pitching, showcasing a premium arm action and easy delivery. His velocity started climbing throughout the fall, and both of his breaking pitches developed as well. As a further testament to his unusual aptitude, Johnson developed a reliable changeup seemingly overnight. This spring, the results have been mixed for Johnson, but he's still shown all of the impact stuff that he flashed during the fall. He has plus fastball velocity with natural running life, but that occasionally hurts him, as he doesn't have the command necessary to avoid the pitch from running back over the heart of the plate. His hard, 83-85 mph slider, which is ahead of his curveball at the moment, comes from a release point that mirrors his fastball and projects as an above-average offering with tight, late-breaking action. His 71-74 mph curveball has solid shape and depth, but it lacks the finish and bite needed to be a legitimate out-pitch at the moment. Johnson's changeup clocks in the mid- to upper 80s and has slight fading action with good feel. He gets off the mound and fields his position well, which is what you would expect from a former junior college shortstop. He has a long way to go in terms of accumulating innings and figuring out the finer details of pitching, such as pitching with efficiency from the stretch, fastball command and the consistency of his breaking balls, but given where he currently sits with so little pitching background, his upside is high. It would take guts to take a 6-foot-1, 200-pound righthander with Johnson's limited track record in the first round, but that's where his pure talent fits, particularly in a down year for college arms.